Vertical Sectors - rdm

Report
BSRIA UPDATE
Structured Cabling Market,
Data Centers,IIMS
and Potential New Studies
January 2009
Agenda
 Global trends in structured cabling
 US/UK Data Center Studies
 BSRIA Consultancy
 IIMS
 Current studies and plans for 2009/2010
BSRIA
Worldwide Market Intelligence
I.T. Networks & Associated Technologies

Small team covering up to 40 countries

Offices in the UK, China, France & Germany

Special topic reports on technologies impacting the SCS
market

Close tracking of individual country economies and
construction activity

Face-to-face and telephone interviews with key
suppliers, distributors and SIs/VARs in each country
AMERICAS
Countries Covered Worldwide
EUROPE
•GERMANY
•UK
•USA
•FRANCE
•CANADA
•NETHERLANDS
•BRAZIL
•ITALY
•ARGENTINA
•SPAIN
•MEXICO
•SWITZERLAND
•CHILE
•BELGIUM
•AUSTRIA
•SWEDEN
•NORWAY
•FINLAND
•DENMARK
•PORTUGAL
ASIA PACIFIC
•POLAND
•CHINA
•RUSSIA
•AUSTRALIA
•HUNGARY
•SOUTH KOREA
•UKRAINE
•JAPAN
•CZECH REPUBLIC
•INDIA
•GREECE
•HONG KONG
•IRELAND
•ASEAN
•SINGAPORE
•VIETNAM
~95% of the global structured cabling market
Market Size Structured Cabling and
Key Trends
Global Structured Cabling Market, 2007/2008
by Product Type
Singlemode fibre cable
1.8%
Fibre connectivity
3.7%
Multimode fibre cable
11.1%
Copper cable
47.2%
Copper connectivity
36.2%
US$ 4.9 billion
Source: BSRIA
Global Structured Cabling Market, 2003 – 2010
Est. $4.97 bill
Rev. $4.95 bill
increase 0.5-1%
US$ mill
Est. Flat
Rev. Decrease
4-5%
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
Copper
2007
Fibre
2008
2009
2010
Top 10 Countries for Structured Cabling, 2007
US$ mill
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
G
U
S
er A
m
an
y
U
K
C
hi
n
Fr a
an
c
A
us e
tr
al
ia
In
C di a
an
ad
a*
B
ra
zi
Ja l
pa
n
Ita
R ly
us
si
a
0
Source: BSRIA
Growth Forecast 2007 - 2010
Kuwait
5.0%
Canada*
5.1%
B ahrain
6.1%
A ustralia
6.2%
6.2%
6.5%
Egypt**
Iran
7.0%
Turkey*
7.6%
P o land*
8.3%
Saudi A rabia
9.2%
Russia
9.7%
B razil
11.9%
UA E
12.3%
M exico *
14.9%
China
22.2%
India
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Source: BSRIA
High
Market Size vs. Market Growth Matrix 2007 - 08
30%
Market Growth Rate 2007-08
India
China
Russia
Middle
East
Latin America
Germany
Australia
France
0%
Italy
United Kingdom
USA
-30%
Low
$150 Million
Market Size 2008
$1700 Million
High
2008 – Preliminary Results
Growth – High 10%+
 India
 China
 Russia
 Brazil/Mexico
 Argentina
Flat
 Spain
 France
Growth – Medium
 Australia
 Germany
 Middle East
 Eastern Europe
Decline
 US
 UK
 Italy
Source: BSRIA
2009 – Preliminary Forecast
Growth
 India (10-15%)
 China (8-10%)
Flat to minor growth
 Latin America
 Middle East
 Australia
Decline
 UK (10-15%)
 US
 Russia (27%)
 Spain (~20%)
 Italy (5-10%)
 France (3-5%)
 Germany (1-3%)
 Austria (2–3%)
Source: BSRIA
Global Trends 2008/9





First half of 2008 – “business as usual”
Business slowed down August – October
Drastic decrease in demand in November/December
4thQ (3rdQ) Projects postponed or cancelled
1stQ 2009: End-user confidence down, slow market
- some carry-over
 Private investment significantly down
 Government investment up (schools, universities, infrastructure, healthcare, central and local authorities etc.)
Price Developments
 Prices remained stable year-on-year from June 2006 – 4Q of 2008
 Some countries had price increases July/August 2008
 Massive drop in copper material prices Autumn 08 (back to 2005
level), but no general price reduction
 Few suppliers reduced prices Nov/Dec 2008, but most suppliers
choose to offer further project discount (target/localised)
 Exceptions - China: pressure from Oct 2008
- Russia: price erosion started!
Source: BSRIA
Price Comparison: A Box (100 ft) UTP Cat 5e, PVC Cable
China
UK
Spain
India
US
Lowest
RMB 380
$53
$55
Norm
RMB 530
$73
$77
£33
$65
$49
£36-40
$75
$56
€ 39
$57
$53
€ 43
$63
$58
INR 2800
$71
$55
INR 3,000-3,500
$74
$83
$64
$80-85
1 local curr = XXX US$
Jan-08
Jan-09
0.1382
0.1447
Jan-08
Jan-09
1.97
1.48
Jan-08
Jan-09
1.47
1.35
Jan-08
Jan-09
0.0254
0.0198
Source: BSRIA
High Penetration of Cat 6
Cat 6 penetration
Cat 6A penetration
 German speaking
countries (80-95%)
 High uptake of Cat 7 cables
with shielded Cat 6 or
Cat 6A connectivity
 Middle East (75-95%)
 Low penetration of Cat 6A
 France,Netherlands (65%)
 4 - 5%
2008 est. by volume
Source: BSRIA
Cat 5e Sales Continue to be High
Cat 5e sales
Cat 6A penetration
 Japan 65–70%
 1%
 Latin Americas (65-70%)
 1% – 3%
 China 57%
 Only very few projects
 Russia 50% and increasing in 2009
 11%
 US 51-52%
 ~4%
2008 est. by volume
Cat 5e (35% - 45%), Cat 6 (50%- 60%) & Cat 6A (2% - 5%)
 UK, Spain, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Italy, India, Australia
Source: BSRIA
China
 China been spending 40% of GDP on business investments
=> excess capacity
 Exports have fallen since Nov 08 – Can internal demand be
stimulated to replace it?
 Pressure on cable prices when the copper material price
dropped (from Oct 08). Increased (15%) beginning of 2008
 Slowed down Q4 2008 and the trend continues in 2009
 Data centre only very small segment (3 – 5%)
 Ningbo Ship, LTK, Potevio (Putian), Orient Daikin, Sunf Pu,
Wonderful Wire are increasing in importance in China
Russia – a Developing Market
 3% of the global market (2008)
 Massive growth in 2006, 2007 and 2008 fuelled by construction
and material price increases
 Dec 2008/Q1 2009 – prices expected to fall significantly
 Consumer confidence down. Projects on hold or cancelled.
Volume to decline 20% in 2009
 Focus on cost savings (Cat, brand, size)
 Growth expected in 2010 and 2011
U.K. & U.S.
Data Center Studies
US Data Centre and LAN Market
Fi Connectivity
54
Fi Cable
121
172
Cu Connectivity
 LAN $1.65 bill
 DC $360 mill
 DC 18% of total
35
511
125
Cu Cable
915
0
200
400
75
600
LAN
800
1000
1200
 Fiber cable
problematic in
DC report
- pre-term
- link lengths
- value of links
DC
Source: BSRIA
Subjects Covered by Data Center
End-User Studies






Cabling market size
Cabling type and location
Cable jacket type
Brands
10G cable choice
40G and 100G current & plans
 Switch port utilisation




Pre-terminated cable
Fiber connectivity
Replacement rates
Network impact from blade
servers & virtualization
 Most important criteria in
selection of system and
supplier
Size of Data Centres in the Studies
No.Servers
Server Room (5-50 servers)
Small (51-500 servers)
Medium (501-2000 servers)
Large (>2000 servers)
No. Respondents 250 US; 120 UK
UK
33.3%
32.5%
25.0%
9.2%
US
31.6%
37.2%
21.6%
9.6%
Source: BSRIA
Plans to Install 10G Copper Cabling
in the Near Future in the Data Centre
No. Respondents 120
Source: BSRIA
10G copper cabling options listed:
 Cat 6 shielded (F/UTP)
 Cat 6A unshielded or shielded
 Cat 7
 Cat 7A
 CX4 (10GbE) cable
Most Likely Choice for Future Data Center
10G Copper Cabling Solution - U.K.
No. Respondents 120
Would Like to Install 10G Active Equipment
for Copper Cabling
U.K. 2008
U.S. 2007
No. Respondents 180
Plans for All Speeds in the Data Center
end 2009
100
80
%
Resps
60
40
20
0
100 Mbps
1G
UK
10G
40G
US
100G
The Copper-Fiber Split
in the Data Center Network - U.K.
As at end 2007 and Planned for end 2008
End 2007
End 2008
Copper
Copper
Fibre
Fibre
42%
44%
58%
56%
No. Respondents 120
How Often Replace Copper & Fiber Cabling
in the Data Center Network - U.K. 2008
Every 2 years or less
Every 3 years
Every 4-5 years
Every 6-7 years
Every 8-10 years
Every 11-15 years
15 or more years
0
10
20
Copper
By No. Respondents
30
40
50
Fiber
No. Respondents 100
How Often Replace Equipment in the
Data Center Network - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008
U.S. 2007
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Every year
Every 2 years
Switches
Every 3 years
Blade servers
Every 4-5 years
Other servers
Every 6-10 years
SAN storage units
Every 11 years
or more
No plans due to
virtualization
No plans due to
other reasons
NAS units
U.K. 2008
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Every year
Switches
Every 2 years
Every 3 years
Blade servers
Every 4-5 years
Other servers
Every 6-10
years
SAN storage units
By Percent Respondents
Every 11 years No plans due to No plans due to
or more
virtualization
other reasons
NAS units
No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120
40G in the Data Center Network
by Layer – U.K. 2008 & 2010
Current 40G by Layer
No. Respondents 77 & 120
Note: The vertical scales are the same on this slide.
40G Plans
40G and 100G by Layer
in the Data Center - U.K. 2008 & 2010
Core to distribution
Distribution to access
Access to server
Server to SANs
Between servers
Server to NAS
0
5
40G 2008
10
15
20
40G end 2010
25
30
100G end 2008
35
40
45
50
100G end 2010
No. Respondents 77
Current Fiber Cabling Installed
in the Data Center - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008
OM1
OM2
OM3
OM3+
Singlemode
0
10
20
UK
30
40
50
60
70
US
No. Respondents: U.S. 239; U.K. 110
Preference for End-to-End Systems
in the Data Center - by Size - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008
%
Resps
No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120
Type of Protocol Used
in the Data Center - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008
No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120
Future Expansion Plans in the Next 5 Years
Data Center - U.S. 2007 & U.K. 2008
Build a new data
center
Outsource more data
center functions
Expand existing data
center(s)
0
20
40
UK
60
%
80
100
US
No. Respondents: U.S. 250; U.K. 120
Most Important Criteria When Selecting
a Location For the Data Center - U.K. 2008
New open question
No. Respondents 114
The Factor that will have the Largest Impact on the
Data Center Cabling Infrastructure in the Future
Open question
No. Respondents UK 115; US 201
BSRIA Consultancy
- A Brief Introduction
Methodology
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
Market Analysis - WMI
Recommendations (including
financial) - BMC
Internal Analysis - BMC
• SEGMENTATION
• FORECASTS
Management
Consultancy
Market
Research
•PRICING
• DISTRIBUTION & COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE
Analysis of Client’s Internal Data
• Financial data
Management
Consultancy
• Commercial data
Market
Research
• Comparison Vs. market
Detailed Recommendations & Action Plans
+ Financial Data
•SALES TARGET SETTING
•
INVESTMENT ESTIMATES
Management
Consultancy
•
CASH FLOW FORECAST
Market
Research
• ACTION PLANS
What BSRIA Consultancy Offers
1. Commercial due diligence
• In our commercial due diligence we take into account the latest news and trends of the industry.
This enables us to contrast the company strategy with the current market
• This document also contributes to gain visibility of new opportunities and risks
2. Business plan evaluation
• The business plan assessment supplies expert opinion about the viability of the company in
strategic and commercial terms
• Moreover, it includes recommendations about the key aspects, supported with calculations and
logical arguments
3. Market research
• This document integrates external market factors as well as strategic positioning and the internal
situation of the client. It is structured in dynamic and predictive models considering different
scenarios, facilitating the decision making process
4. Assessment/Creation of Vendor's book
• The vendor’s book has the competitive advantage of integrating BSRIA experience in the industry
• The deliverable integrates the financial information with information on the marketplace and the
company’s strategy. The commercial language used is clear and concise.
Examples of Completed Projects
Company type
Project and outcome
No. of countries
Global HVAC
company
Developed complete new strategy for existing player. Action plan devised for
fundamental change in distribution
1
Large regional HVAC
company
Refocus strategy for company for management buyout. Company refocused
product and segment strategy and are now very profitable.
3
Private equity
company
Assessment of acquisition opportunity – large regional heating company. We
advised - “don’t buy it.”
1
Global HVAC
company
Assessed current distribution strategy, assessed key changes. Warned of market
collapse in the country. Recommended changes in product range.
Compared market position and potential with three main other markets.
Private equity + major Examined current market, future structures and opportunities. Preparation of
plumbing client
vendor's book.
1+3
3
Old Bracknell Lane West
c/ Juan Ramón Jiménez 9, 1º
Bracknell Berkshire RG12 7 AH
Madrid 28036
United Kingdom
Spain
+44 (0) 1344 465600
+34 91 185 42 37
Intelligent Infrastructure Management
Systems
Intelligent Infrastructure Management Systems (IIMS)
No-IIMS
IIMS
Global Sales of IIMS, 2005 - 2007
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2005
2006
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
2007
America
IIMS Sales by Region, 2005 - 2007
Region
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
America
Total
Key countries
UK
Russia
Spain
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Kuwait
India
South Korea
China
USA
Argentina
Brazil
2005
2006
2007
2008
700,000
1,000,000
1,150,000

20,000
60,000
250,000

80,000
180,000
460,000

190,000
990,000
825,000
2,065,000
600,000
2,460,000


Sales of IIMS by Generic Solution, 2006 & 2007
by Volume - no. of Managed Ports
2006
2007
555,000
550,000
780,000
~780,000
765,000
1,050,000
~50,000
150,000 - 200,000
2.1 million
2.4 – 2.5 million
Itracs
Corning
Molex
Nexans (ITT)
Ortronics
Siemon
Tyco Electronics
Rit
ADC Krone
Belden
Brand-Rex
Connectix
Furukawa
LS Cable
Panduit
Rit Technologies
Simon Electric
Systimax
Others
HellermannTyton
Total
Reasons for Growth?
 Global roll out (mainly Financial sector)
 Increasing number of installations in medium sized
companies
 Large projects such as airports
 Increasing awareness
 Premium reduced, now 15% - 25%
Plans to Install IIMS in the Near Future
in the Data Center - U.K. 2008
Where no IIMS currently exists
Open question
No. Respondents 79
Primary Reason Have Installed an IIMS
in the Data Center - U.K. 2008
Open question
No. Respondents 37
Barriers for Further Uptake of IIMS
 Lack of understanding and awareness,
but less of an issue now
 Lack of compatibility between systems
 Cost of solutions
 Cost of implementation and training
Primary Reason for NOT Installing IIMS
in the Data Center - U.K. 2008
Open question
No. Respondents 78
How To Be Successful in IIMS
 Stay with the projects until the system is fully
employed
 Continue to provide service and back-up
 Vendor representation or competent SI
 Continuing updates of products and software
 Further projects
 Loyal customer!
Plans for 2009 / 2010
Cabling Portfolio
Data Centre
UK
Data Centre
US
Data Centre
India?
Verticals
USA
Verticals
China
Wireless
10G
Residential C.
Cabling in
Buildings
VoIP
IIMS
North America
Residential C.
Europe
Asia Pac.
Asia Pac.
Latin Am.
Latin Am.
Wireless / VoIP
Middle E.
Middle E.
Middle E.
“Runner” 20 – 21 countries per year
Europe
1995
1999/2000
Europe
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Impact on Cabling of WLAN and VoIP Update
 Penetration of WLAN
 Impact on cabling (addition/reduction in cabling)
 Barriers and new regulations
 Applications and wireless only installations
 Implementation of VoIP
 Integration of VoIP and WLAN
High Speeds in Commercial Networks
 Uptake of Cat 6A, Cat 7 and OM3 fibre
 High speeds in Data centres, server rooms and LAN
 Choice between copper and fibre
 Protocol choices
 Main suppliers
 Barriers
 Active equipment and their availability
Quarterly Forecast - U.S.
 U.S. first
 Potentially other key countries (regions)
 Forecast for structured cabling (Copper & Fibre)
Forecast based on:
- Economic trends
- Construction, planning applications
- Copper prices and other energy/material prices
- Panel (selected channel players, consultants, VARs)
- Output: trends - mainly up, down, flat
BSRIA Market Sizing Project for CABA

BSRIA in discussion with CABA (Continental Automated Buildings Association)
of North America about a major market study

Project would be commissioned by CABA’s Intelligent & Integrated Buildings
Council (IIBC)

IIBC is proposing a market sizing exercise of the North American market for
intelligent and integrated building technologies used to create high
performance green sustainable buildings

Scope:
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
Environmental (HVAC) Controls / Building Automation
Security Systems (Access Control, CCTV, Intruder Alarm)
Fire Detection and Alarm
IT-Convergence
Lighting Systems
Water Saving / Control Systems
Audio Visual and Digital Signage Systems
BSRIA Market Sizing Project for CABA
Intelligent Building Products
 BSRIA has a proven track record in these subjects around the world and
extensive North American experience
 Project comprises in-depth studies of these markets by value of
products/systems, value-add, services, vertical markets by building type
 Project will build on Proplan’s historical data and proven methodology of face-to-
face interviews and data gathering directly from manufacturers
 Project expected to start around March/April 2009 for publication around
September/October 2009
 A CABA mailing on the content and scope will be available in February and will
be featured at the ASHRAE (AHR Expo) event in Chicago 26 January 2009
 Please refer to CABA’s Ron Zimmer or Alex Detre for details or sponsorship (tel:
613.686.1814 / www.caba.org)
Use of Structured Cabling in Building Control Networks
Web Browser
Server
Workstation
Workstation
Highest
Management
Level
Ethernet / IP
Automation
Level
LON to BACnet Router
3rd party Integrator
Automation Level Controller
Operator Terminal
Field Bus: LONWORK/BACnet/Proprietary
3rd
Field Level Controller
LON controller
Third Party Systems
Plant Controller
Field Level
Room
Controllers
Sensors
Chillers
Sensors
Room Controllers
Fan coil
Valves and
Actuators
VAV Controller
Lowest
VAV Box
Greatest Use of Structured Cabling in Security Systems
Intruder Alarm
systems
Hybrid CCTV
systems
Access Control
systems
Total IP CCTV systems
IP Network: UTP or Fiber
Lowest
Highest
Drivers and Barriers for Convergence
Drivers:
Barriers:
 Upgrading the existing
infrastructure (from Analogue to
Digital)
 Lack of knowledge
 Networked and accessible
remotely
 Prices tend to escalate when upgrading
the infrastructure
 Open communication protocols
 BAS suppliers lack control of network
performance
 Convergence of Physical and
Logical (I.T.) Security
 Educating installers
 Broadcasting approach (used by BAS)
not permitted on some routers and
switches
Increasing Use of Structured Cabling
in Intelligent Building Control Systems
Controls
Intruder Alarm
Strategic Overview
 Top 15 suppliers by product and
by region
 Company profiles of the top 10
largest companies:
 CommScope (Systimax)
 Global and regional trends
 Belden (Mohawk)
 Electrical suppliers and channel
 Tyco Electronics
 Private label (distributors)
 Production and increasing sales
by local suppliers
 Penetration of Cat 6A
 Shielded or UTP Cat 6A?
 Residential cabling
 Nexans (Berk-Tek)
 Panduit
 ADC Krone
 Legrand (incl. Ortronics and TCL)
 Schneider Electric (Infra+, Clipsal,
LexCom, LK)
 Siemon
 General Cable
Overview of Potential Studies
Updates or new markets
New studies




 High speeds in Commercial
Networks
 Quarterly Forecast
 Integrated Cabling in
Buildings
 Strategic Overview
WLAN and VoIP
Verticals in China
Update of US Verticals
Data Centres (India,
Germany)
 Other suggestions????
THANK YOU

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