Wills-rotary-Apr14 - Future Smart Strategies

Report
Going sustainable in the 21st Century
- how quickly will the world go green blue?
Prof Ray Wills
Managing Director
Future Smart Strategies
Leader Western Australia
Blue Australasia
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia
Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser
Sustainable Energy Association of Australia
@ProfRayWills
Adoption rate of technology
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Markets tell us how quickly disruptive technologies can
impact
Natural rate of turnover and retirement in technology
But, adoption of new technology rarely just ‘natural’
Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where
changes are favoured by:
 consumer sentiment;
 policy measures and regulation;
 pricing advantage.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
(Niels Bohr)
Roger’s diffusion curve
Wake up and smell the roses
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Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs?
(Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC
PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet
Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry)
Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store)
VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay
Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon)
Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet
Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar
Technology adoption rates – US
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Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs?
(Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
The Big Bang Theory
NY Times
Technology adoption rates
Technology energy use
Laptop
Tablet
Computer
Televisions
www.epri.com
Electricity generation - Australia
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Potential EV growth
Global renewables 2014 +>
Declining price on solar
Declining price on solar
Global renewables
Global energy – fossil and renewables
Global energy – impact on emissions
US energy sources changing
Solar on Australian homes
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1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output
estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014.
WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity
Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity
Solving energy poverty
Evolving markets
Solar and storage fight energy poverty
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Developing nations can meet modest domestic power
needs with solar.
Means storage is already economically affordable.
@ProfRayWills
Rapid change
- mobility
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Efficiency in transport
Energy storage key
New tech may be disruptive
Electric mass transit
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Siemens Bordeaux
light rail
Hybrid battery-electric
Bombardier wireless
battery-electric
Bombardier Slim Ride
Series 700 Shinkansen
Commercial
vehicles
Smith Newton
electric truck
Diesel Electric hybrids
 Honda prime mover
 Volvo Hybrid - Veolia
 London Bus
- diesel hybrid, and electric
 CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover
 Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Flying and floating fuels
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25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1st biofuel flight
(But 1st USAF - 30 Oct 07)
(QANTAS much later 14 Feb 11 )
13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces
Green Strike Group, powered
by renewable diesel-electric
engines, nuclear power and
aviation biofuels operating
independent of fossil fuel
supply line threat or disruption
And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel
Smart grids devices and buildings –
and microgrids…
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Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to
coordinate the actions of devices such as loads &
generators
Distributed generation changes utility paradigm
Green cities
consuming less energy
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Global
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Australia
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Tianjin Eco-City China
Ulsan Ecocity Korea
Masdar City UAE
City of Sydney
City of Melbourne
City of Townsville
City of Fremantle
Local government critical
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Nimble government
Community demand
Increasing pace of technology adoption
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Big decrease in developmental lag
Innovation/development
of new products
Supply side capabilities
Market competition
Growing consumer expectations
Higher level of communication
between consumers - blogspace
CSR, reputation and CFOs
Regulation
Energy just a commodity

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