Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratieff
March 4, 1892 – September 17, 1938
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin April 22, 1870 – January 21, 1924
“The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between
the millstones of taxation and inflation.”
Alexander Lvovich Parvus September 8, 1867 - December 12, 1924
Long Wave theorist and Lenin’s economic mentor
1867 Birth of Parvus (Alexander Israel Helphand) in what is now Belarus.
1870: Birth of Lenin
1887 Execution of brother politicizes Lenin
1891 Parvus receives his PhD in economics from Basel; develops a reputation as Marxist
theoretician, and ultimately described in the memoir of one German socialist as having
"the ablest brains of the Second International”
1892 Birth of Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratieff
1893 Lenin in exile, Siberia plus Europe, for political agitation
1900 Lenin meets Parvus in Munich. He revives Marx's concept of "permanent revolution"
which is adopted by Lenin and Trotsky.
1901 Parvus writes a pamphlet restating 1847 idea of British engineer Dr. Hyde Clark, of 54
year cycle but it was Kondratieff who first described the cycle in detail and for whom the
cycle is named. Kondratieff cycles are most readily apparent in monetary data such as
prices and interest rates.
1905 Russian Revolution: labor strikes, officer mutinies, Bloody
Sunday (peaceful demonstrators gunned down by Imperial Guard) led to the establishment
of limited constitutional monarchy, the State Duma of the Russian Empire, the multi-party
system, and the Russian Constitution of 1906. Parvus, along with Trotsky, is arrested and
imprisoned for authoring a paper entitled The Financial Manifesto which caused panic in
the banking sector and other agitation but escapes 3 years in exile in Siberia.
1913 Two Dutch socialists talk of a cycle including 25 years of slow growth followed by a
1914 Russia sustaining huge losses in WWI
1915 Lenin and Parvus meet in Bern. Lenin is willing to receive German sponsorship but
won't publicly acknowledge relationship so there is still debate about how Lenin was
financed. By now Parvus regarded as a German agent, but a committed Marxist.
1917 Kondratieff a young professor specializing in agricultural economics.
1917 Lenin returns to Russia following February Revolution that overthrows the Czar,
replacing him with a Provisional Government, whose second Prime Minister was Alexander
Kerensky. Kerensky appoints Kondratieff Deputy Minister of Food Supplies. Lenin becomes
leader of the Bolshevik faction of the Russian Social Democratic Labor Party and helps
orchestrate the October Revolution that overthrows Kerensky's Provisional Government
and establishes the Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic.
1918 -1920 Russian Civil War between Reds (Bolsheviks) and Whites (Bourgeois
Conservatives, Officer Classes) Huge loss of life.
1920 Conjuncture Institute is established
1922 Kondratieff publishes first major work The World Economy and Its Conjunctures
During and After the War introducing his theory of crises and establishes the theoretical
and statistical basis for long term conjuncture fluctuations - that is, long waves or cycles of
about 64 years in duration that illustrate, in wavelike fashion, a consistent pattern of
economic expansion, crisis and depression.
1924 Lenin dies; Parvus dies, a wealthy man, in Berlin.
1925 Kondratieff publishes Big Cycles of Conjuncture but is now finding himself in disfavor
1926 Kondratieff delivers a paper on long cycles that is much criticized
1928 Kondratieff loses support because of his pro-market industrialization ideas and
support of small scale peasant farming, including that of the kulaks, the wealthier farmers
(who knew how to run a farming operation!).
1929 Conjuncture Institute is now closed;
1930 Kondratieff arrested
1932 Sentenced to 8 years at Suzdal.
On September 17, 1938, in Stalin’s Great Purge,
Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratieff was sentenced and executed by firing squad
Yellow - Oil Price in U.S. Legal Tender Red - Oil Price in Gold Dollars
"Gold is Money. That's it." - J.P. Morgan
What my friend Larry Jeddeloh of the TIS Group Heard and
didn’t Hear on his recent round of institutional visits
• A Leg of Gold and Silver Bullion
• A Leg of Energy
• A Leg of great Global Dividend Paying
• A Leg of Agriculture
• The Seat of the chair is your Job or
• The Back of the chair is your Real Estate
Faites vos jeux, rien ne va plus

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