Report

Attempting Escape: A Network Based Analysis of North Korean Refugees Capt Krysta Anthony LT Kevin Kerno Historical Background • History of North Korea • Human rights issues • What is the rest of the world doing? North Korean Escapees • 1,500 North Koreans escaped in 2012 – So what’s the big deal? • Extremely arduous/perilous journey – Difficult to travel within in North Korea – Geography – Government agents – Sex Traffickers – Kidnappers • China illegally deports North Korean refugees – Classifies North Korean refugees as “economic immigrants” How does one escape? • The “New Underground Railroad” – Who is helping – What makes it up – How it works • Where do the refugees go? – China first – Then exit into Mongolia and Southeast Asia • Reaching South Korea General Escape Routes Map of North Korea Problem Statement What are the best routes for North Korean escapees to take when fleeing from North Korea? Research Questions • What is the shortest route an escapee can take to fully escape? • What is the safest route an escapee can take? • What general route provides the highest likelihood of escape? • Where are the most likely points of interdiction both inside of North Korea and in China? • How can resources be allocated to assist North Korean refugees escape? Challenges in Creating Network • Limited published information and data • Most information is word of mouth and anecdotal • Pieced multiple accounts and sources together • Utilized Google Earth • Utilized geographical data, topographical maps, and intuition Assumptions/Project Limitations • Three starting points in North Korea that represent southern, central, and northern regions • Considering a single escapee • All edge probabilities within North Korea are the same – Similar for border crossings and within China • Only considered straight line distances • The only escape paths out of NK are into China • If in China, an escapee must escape to Mongolia or Southeast Asia to be considered safe • Average speed refugees moving is 10 km/hr for 14 hours per day Overview of Network • Nodes: Cities, towns, villages, border crossing points, and airports in North Korea, China, Mongolia, and Southeast Asia • Edges: Straight line routes between the above nodes – Super sink to Escape from Bangkok, Ulaanbaatar, Vientiane, Manila and Seoul • Edge Costs: Initially the straight line distance in kilometers – Then assigned probabilities of evading authorities to each edge Network Shortest Path Escape Route Start Point: Kyo-Hwa-So Haeju Pungsan 4 Total Distance: 2139 2244 2279 km Analysis: Basic Model • Shortest path routes in terms of distance from three starting points within North Korea • Results – All paths lead to Chinggis-Khaan International Airport in Mongolia – Refugee must travel over 2200 km • Conclusion – Average total travel time with no delays would be 17 days – Tumen River crossing is longest More Realistic Edge Costs • Scaled the overall edge lengths • To determine edge probabilities we took the following into account: – Where the edge is located (i.e. North Korea, China, between North Korea and China, etc.) – What locations the edge is linking – The overall edge length in km • Rate of capture on an edge (percent): – 20%/hour: North Korea Edges – 30%/hour: North Korea into China border crossing – 10%/hour: China edges More Realistic Edge Costs • To generate edge probabilities we applied the following transformation Probability of Evading = e pt p rate of capture on edge [% / hour ] t time an escapee is on an edge [ hours ] More Realistic Edge Costs • We then take the –ln of the probability of evading to use as our new edge costs: ln(Probability of Evading) • Now, the goal is to maximize the overall probability of escape Probabilistic Escape Route Start Point: Pungsan Haeju Kyo-Hwa-So 4 POE: 5.9% 11.4% 16.0% Analysis: More Realistic Model • Highest probabilities of escaping from the three starting points – No interdiction • Results – Highest probability of escape: 16.0% – Lowest probability of escape: 5.9% • Conclusions – All escape routes through Capital International Airport in Beijing – Tumen River crossing most dangerous Interdiction • Forms of attack – North Korean agents and government informants – Chinese agents and government informants – Kidnappers – Sex traffickers – Human trafficking organizations • Modeled attacks on an edge by placing a “checkpoint” on that edge Implementing Attacks • “Checkpoint” encompasses all above forms of attack • No “checkpoints” outside of China and North Korea • Checkpoints are not 100% effective – Each “checkpoint” causes a 6-hour delay • Looked at a varying number of checkpoints to determine effect on safest path Probabilistic Escape Routes with 5 Checkpoints Haeju Kyo-Hwa-So 4 Start Point: Pungsan 1.40% 2.07% POE: 1.10% Analysis: More Realistic Model with Interdiction • Highest probabilities of escaping from the three starting points with attacks • Results – Highest probability of escape: 2.04% – Lowest probability of escape: 1.10% – Non-nested solutions • Conclusions – “Checkpoints” do not alter paths, only drastically decrease probability of escape – Tumen River crossing most dangerous Operator Resilience Curve Network Design • Adding resources to certain routes • Increasing probabilities of successful border crossing – Increasing the number of border crossings – Increasing the number of guides – Paying off government agents • With more resources, more escapees could escape through Beijing airport – Enhances their chances of escape – Avoids hundreds of miles of ground travel Network Design: Additional Resources along Pungsan Route Conclusions and Insights • Shortest path escape path greatly different than probability-based escape path • Tumen River Route – Longest of shortest path in distance – Most dangerous probabilistically – Addition of resources triples probability of escape • Keys to increasing the probability of escape – Get escapees to the Beijing airport – Add additional resources in China Additional Research Opportunities • More detailed/accurate network – Roads, railways, bus routes, etc. • Changing probabilities – Lower escape probabilities out of concentration camps – Vary probabilities in China • Use maximum flow to solve the problem • Further implementation of network design aspects Questions