The Struggle for Primacy in a Global Society

Report
The Struggle for Primacy
in a Global Society
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
Lecture Objectives
• Rise and fall of great powers – the role of politics,
economics, and culture
• Characteristics of a great power and a failing power
• Challenges facing the United States
• Imperial overstretch and its examples
• U.S. – China rivalry
• Some Military History of Europe…it’s summer after all
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
Power and Change
Power transition theory - the distribution-of-power between
countries changes clustering in different actors
• Rise of China and fall of the United States
Multipolar - Several hegemons (the leading country in an international
system)
• Before WWII, US, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and the
Soviet Union were great powers.
Bipolarity – two hegemons
• After the WWII - US and Soviet Union remained dominant countries
… Then when the Soviet Union fell, the US dominated and created
Unipolarity
– Military power is unipolar with the US dominating, but
– Other forms of Power are multipolar: China, Western Europe, Japan
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
What determines States’ Power?
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Geographic area
Population
Natural resources
Intelligence capabilities
Quality of national leadership
Level of technological/educational achievement
Political transparency
“Soft power” ???
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
Rise and fall of great powers
• Urbanization – concentration of talent and diversity
• Geography – a natural buffer/resource store
• Ex: Britain and the United States
• War - Can increase/decrease the power of a nation
• Hubris – Overestimation of power and expanding military
power  eroding of states’ economic base
• The Lippmann Gap or imperial overstretch
• Imperial overstretch – disparity in state’s global ambitions and their
resources to fulfill such ambitions
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
Rise and fall of great powers
• Population pressures
– the amount of resources a state has
– Too much pressure can lead to a weaker state or
increased frustration (Germany in 1930s)
• Urbanization
– Synonymous with freedom and innovation
– Attracts diverse groups of people thus improving the
capabilities of a rising power
– Commitment to tolerance, freedom, and trust
– Inequality and frustration (Failed States)
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
Characteristics of a great power
• Effective power conversion
– Power conversion – capacity to change potential power
(measured by available resources) into realized power;
determined by changed behaviors of others
• Good structural, institutional, and situational leadership
• High power capability (economic/military strength and
political effectiveness)
• Build institutions to legitimize their control
• Democratic enlargement
– The internalization of values, beliefs, and norms (soft
power)
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
Why Decline?
• Hubris
• Imperial overstretch
• Failure to commit to freedom, tolerance, and
trust
• Failed or lack of leadership
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
“The "military conflict" referred to in the book's subtitle is
therefore always examined in the context of "economic change."
The triumph of any one Great Power in this period, or the
collapse of another, has usually been the consequence of lengthy
fighting by its armed forces; but it has also been the
consequences of the more or less efficient utilization of the
state's productive economic resources in wartime, and, further in
the background, of the way in which that state's economy had
been rising or falling, relative to the other leading nations, in the
decades preceding the actual conflict. For that reason, how a
Great Power's position steadily alters in peacetime is as
important to this study as how it fights in wartime”
Paul Kennedy, The Rise… p. xv
Challenges facing the U.S.
• Global economic crisis and financial recession
• Emerging market economies – China, India, Brazil,
Russia (BRIC)
•
Alliance (Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation) between
China and Russia to challenge American security
• Non-state actors
• “…weak powers confront the strong in unorthodox
ways” (35)
• Asymmetrical warfare
• Ex: suicide bombings and other terrorist acts
• “Empires are usually their own worst enemy.” (36)
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
U.S. – China rivalry
• China’s growing power + America’s decreasing power =
antagonizing relationship
• China’s growth was spurred by:
– Deliberate, draconian policies to reduce population
growth
– Adaptation of free market
– Increased privatization of economy
– Promotion of entrepreneurship
– Efforts to attract foreign investments
• China used the U.S. war on terror and financial crisis to
further their growth
GPST 3000 - Stojek - Verona 2013
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Euro-Quiz
05/26/2011
UGA à Paris - Meyer
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Euro-Quiz
05/26/2011
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Euro-Quiz
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Euro-Quiz
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Euro-Quiz
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UGA à Paris - Meyer
www.pptpalooza.net/PPTs/EHAP/GeographyOfEurope.ppt
Regions
05/26/2011
UGA à Paris - Meyer
Climate
(Major)
Religious
Groups
Members of the Indo-European Language Family
UGA à Paris - Meyer
Brief“Who
(military)
Europe
– National Identity:
arehistory
we?”of(and
who are we not?)
– Modern System of States: “What is our territory?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvlp7cBWwIw






Byzantine Empire (≈395-1453)
Foundation & Spread of Islam (622 (Hijra) - )
Reconquista (722-1492 )
Holy Roman Empire (962–1806)
Golden Horde (1240s-1500)
Ottoman Empire (1299-1923 (Sieges of Vienna: 1529/1683))
3 basic forms of “world” political systems
1. Imperial System
2. Feudal System
3. Anarchic System of States
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1. Imperial System
Characteristics
– One government controls most of “the world”
= lack of a roughly equal opponent
– “Border regions”  boundaries (life cycle)
World Empire
vs. Regional Empire
British Empire (1920s)
Roman Empire (200AD)
Aspiring & Failed Empires
– Wilhelmine & Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, etc..
– Dutch Empire(?), USSR(?), United States (?)
Sources: http://www.worldhistory.timemaps.com/images/AD200/RomanEmpire.jpg, ttp://worldroundup.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/british_empire_1920s.png
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2. Feudal System
Characteristics
– “Middle”/“Dark” Ages ≈ 400 – 1600
– Loyalties not fixed primarily by territorial boundaries
– Multiple loyalties: king, local lords, church, etc.
– Church controls 1/3 of the land
tries to curb feudal warfare
(e.g. only 40 “combat days”/year)


Henry IV: “Walk to Canossa” (1077)
Henry VIII: Anglican Church (1534)
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Source: http://www.declarepeace.org.uk/captain/murder_inc/site/pics/feudal.jpg
UGA à Paris - Meyer
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Historic Dates & Context: The Battle of Hastings, 1066
– Reality: “Just another struggle for succession”

– Interpretation: Culturally, politically, linguistically:
• Jack Straw (2003) “Britain was founded in 1066 by the French”

• Sir Walter Scott: Ivanhoe (1819): “Norman yoke” destroying Saxon
democratic/egalitarian culture – “they did this to us”

• Edward Freeman (1872): “the Norman was a Dane who, in his
sojourn in Gaul, had put on a slight French varnish, and who came
into England to be washed clean again.”
– Selective reading of history
• Dates as symbols  “actual” historical significance.
• E.g. “1683” in the debates about Turkey’s EU membership
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Decline of the Feudal System
Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation (962-1806)
– feudal pyramid declines into
a discordant group of
independent fiefs
– noble families, religious
institutions, burghers of the
developing towns, etc.
– 225 political entities
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Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Holy_Roman_Empire_1648_fr.svg/756px-Holy_Roman_Empire_1648_fr.svg.png
30 Years War(s) (1618-48):
– Reasons:
dynastic, strategic, religious conflicts within and between European
powers
– Actors:
Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, House Habsburg, Free imperial
cities, Papacy, local lords, rulers of Bavaria, Spain, Papacy, Poland,
Saxony, Dutch Republic, France, Sweden, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.
– Results:
widespread devastation of “Germany,” famine, disease,
bankruptcy…and a New Political Order
05/26/2011
https://qed.princeton.edu/getfile.php?f=The_Thirty_Years_War_1618-48.jpg
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Westphalian Sovereignty
Peace of Westphalia (1648)
– Basis of new European/world order
– States = primary institutionalized actors in the system
• Interests/goals transcend those of any individual
– State sovereignty
1. territoriality
2. exclusion of external actors from domestic affairs
– Anarchy
• Absence of a higher government/common sovereign
• Self-help system (frequent but limited wars)
 Key concept in the study of international politics
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UGA a Paris - Meyer
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World(!) War 1
1914: The Great War!
– 15 million dead
• E.g. Battle of the Somme: 1.3 mn dead & wounded
 Prussian – Austrian war (1866): 36,000 total
– Accelerating power shift away from Europe
– Rise of Communism (Russian Revolution)
– What had happened??
– Where did Westphalia go??
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The System Level
1. Rise of Nationalism
Westphalian System:
– Wars: dynastic, short, sharp, geographically limited
 “rewrite the rules of the game”
 “revolutionary wars”
– Comparatively stable international system
Balance of power between “divine” monarchs:
• “L'État, c'est moi!” (State Moralism)
French Revolution (1789-1799)!!
– Overthrowing of domestic institutions of a World Power
( American “Revolution” = independence from a distant land)
• Power should emanate from the people!  Nationalism
• Enormous Challenge to rules of the game and balance of power!
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Bye, bye stability…
moderate process & stable system (monarchies)
revolutionary pr. & unstable system (of differently governed states)
Exogenous Change
– Unexplainable through structural theory (e.g. Neo-Realism)
– Constructivist “supplement” needed
• Rise of popular sovereignty & nationalism
 Radical Changes: Fight for “fatherland”/ “total war”
 “draft” for the cause
 Huge “national” armies
 …
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UGA à Paris - Meyer
“the crash will come twenty years after my
The System Level
departure if things go on like
this”
2. Rise of Germany
"One day the great European War will come out of
– Unification of Germany, Versailles 1871
some damned foolish thing in the Balkans”
– 1881-1914: “Scramble for Africa”
- Bismarck,
1897 nation”surpassing British Empire
– 1890: “Belated
• Wilhelm II forces Bismarck to resign (“Dropping the Pilot“)
– 1901: “Germany’s place in the Sun”
• “In spite of the fact that we have no such fleet as we should have, we
have conquered for ourselves a place in the sun. It will now be my task
to see to it that this place in the sun shall remain our undisputed
possession,…” - Kaiser Wilhelm II , 1901
– 1911: “Tirpitz-plan”
• Build a navy “strong enough to make UK avoid battle”
– 1913: UK 10% of World GDP vs.Germany 15%
–…
05/26/2011
UGA à Paris - Meyer
http://images.zeno.org/Kunstwerke/I/big/079s037a.jpg http://www.dhm.de/lemo/objekte/pict/gr102138/index.jpg
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Bipolarization of the System
Loss of diplomatic flexibility (Nationalism + incredibly incapable leaders)
Decline of “Concert of Europe” ( Triple Alliance vs. Tripple Entente))
Rigid Bipolarity  security dilemma is tightened
05/26/2011
UGA à Paris - Meyer
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Triple_Alliance.png,,, http://wpcontent.answers.com/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6b/Guerre_14-18-Humour-L%27ingordo,_trop_dur-1915.JPG/175px-
Ergo…
State
System
Rise of
Germany
Rising
Nationalism
Rising
popular
participation
Collapse of
AustriaHungary
Domestic
class
conflict
Individual
Leader
Personalities
Aggressive
German
policy
Bipolarity
of Alliances
05/26/2011
Loss of
moderation
UGA à Paris - Meyer
Escalating
Crisis
In search of a new world order…
Disillusion…
– “Civilization”
– “Balance of Power”
Woodrow Wilson: ( Otto von Bismarck)
– Classic 19th century liberal
• “the balance of power is the great game now forever
discredited”
• morality “good” and “bad”
• Nationalism (self-determination), Ideologies, etc…
• Democracy and Peace
• “outlaw war”
– The World Needs A New System!
05/26/2011
UGA à Paris - Meyer
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In search
of a new(
world
order…
Westphalia
 “Self-Policing”
“Super-Leviathan”)
– International laws & institutions (“intl. democracy”)
•
14 Pts (14): “ Association of nations […] for the purpose of
affording mutual guarantees of political independence and
territorial integrity to great and small states alike.”
 Collective Security
– Collective Responsibility “Paper Treaties”
• Permanent organizations to enforce rules of the game
• Moral force and military force on “the side of the Good”
 How?
– Outlawing of offensive war (normative)
• deter aggression (coalition of all non-aggressive states)
• democratic peace
05/26/2011
• Collective punishment (sanctions & “just war”)
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Covenant of the League of Nations
Article
Content
Ambiguity
#10
“respect and preserve as against external
aggression the territorial integrity and existing
political independence of all Members…”
How? (Veto
Power)
#11
Any war or threat of war [is] declared a matter of
concern to the whole League, and the League
shall take any action…
Who?
(Decision
Maker)
#12
[The Members] agree in no case to resort to war
until three months after the award by the
arbitrators or the judicial decision, …
Enforcement
?
#16
[...] severance of all trade or financial relations,
the prohibition of all intercourse between their
nationals…
Coordination
?
05/26/2011
UGA à Paris - Meyer
The US and the League of Nations
American Liberal Plan to Reorder World Politics
– US senate refuses to ratify treaty of Versailles
– “Collective” security without biggest actor in the system
Reasons:
– Isolationism vs. Interventionism
– American “Colonies” (e.g. Philippines: 1898–1946)
George Washington’s Farewell Address (1796):
“The great rule of conduct for us in regard to foreign nations is in extending our
commercial relations, to have with them as little political connection as
possible. […] Europe has a set of primary interests which to us have none; or a
very remote relation. Hence she must be engaged in frequent controversies,
the causes of which are essentially foreign to our concerns. Hence, therefore, it
must be unwise in us to implicate ourselves by artificial ties in the ordinary
vicissitudes of her politics, or the ordinary combinations and collisions of her
friendships or enmities.”
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League of Nations vs. “National
France:
Interest”
– Deep seated fear  singles
out aggressor in advance
• “Traditional” Coalition building: Poland, “Little Entente” Yugoslavia,
Czechoslovakia, Romania
Germany
– “Rape of Versailles”
– “stab-in-the-back legend”
– Severely weakened but not broken
– “war guilt clause” – Germany as the sole aggressor
– $33,000,000,000  collapsed economy
– Reduction of Army to 100,000 men - no Air force
– Loss of 25,000 square miles – home to 7 million people
– Hyperinflation – weakening of the middle class
05/26/2011
UGA à Paris - Meyer
http://www.geschichteinchronologie.ch/eu/D-bis-1933/Sontheimer_kraefte-gg-weim-rep-d/karte-1919-gebietsverluste-Deutschland.gif
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http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3130/2908764415_8f46ded784.jpg
Ergo…
State
System
Unfinished
WWI
Versailles
Treaty
05/26/2011
Individual
Class
Conflict
Great
Depression
Ideological
Politics
(GER & JP)
Hitler’s Rise
to Power
Inadequate
econ. coordination
Appeasem
ent
Hitler’s
schemes
US and SU
Isolation
Unstable
Balance
UGA à Paris - Meyer
Escalation!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCnEbQjaUvY&playnext=1&list=PL939C23D40C983B6D
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“Statistics”
“State”
Population
(≈1939)
USSR
169,000,000
China
517,600,000
3rd Reich
84,000,000
5,500,000
Poland
34,849,000
240,000
Japan
71,380,000
2,120,000
580,000
x
France
41,700,000
217,600
267,000
83,000
UK
47,760,000
382,700
67,100
x
USA
131,028,000
416,800
1,700
x
World
1,967,000,000
23,000,000 25,000,000
32,000,000 50,000,000
Military
Deaths
Civilian
Deaths
8,800,000 10,700,000
3,000,000 4,000,000
12,300,000
14,200,000
7,000,000 –
16,000,000
959,700 3,228,700
2,380,000 2,580,000
Jewish D.
Holocaust
1,000,000
x
225,000
3,000,000
5,700,000
≈Total Deaths
≈ % of pop.
24,000,000
14%
10-20,000,000
1.93-3.86%
6,8 – 9,000,000
8 -10.7%
5,6 - 5,800,000
16.1 - 16.7%
2,700,000
3.78%
567,600
1.35%
449,800
0.94%
418,500
0.32%
62-79,000,000
3.17-4% 44
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