Capacity Expansion Planning

Report
PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model:
Modelling the Impact of LNG Demand
on the East Coast Gas Market
Olumide Adisa (Ph.D)
Gas Market Modeller
March 2014
Energy Exemplar®
• Commercial since 1999
• Focused on PLEXOS® for Energy Systems Software
• Global client base served from four locations:
– Adelaide, Australia
– London, United Kingdom
– Johannesburg, South Africa
– Sacramento, CA, USA West Coast
– Hartford, CT, USA East Coast
• 20% staff with Ph.D. level qualifications spanning Operations Research,
Electrical Engineering, Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
• Client base growing 30% p.a.
2
Client Map
• Worldwide installations of PLEXOS exceed 1060 at more than 175 sites worldwide in 37 countries.
• Users: Power Generation Companies, Transmission System Operators (TSOs), Independent System
Operators (ISOs), Electricity and Gas Market Operators, Energy Commission and Regulators, Price
Forecasting Agencies, Power Plant Manufacturers, Consultants, Analysts, Academics & Research Institutions
3
Analysis tools in PLEXOS®
What makes PLEXOS® engine so powerful?
Power market design:
Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, UK, CAISO, MISO,
Singapore, Chile
Cutting edge technology:



.Net Framework 4.0 and XML
Built-in functions and solving methods.
Optimization: Xpress, CPLEX, Gurobi, Mosek
Simulator Features:
 Long, medium and short term
 Stochastic and deterministic optimization
Analysis Capabilities:
 Cost-based analysis
 Simulate competitive behaviour
 Co-optimization of resources and services
 Profit Maximization
 Integrated Transmission and Hydro
4
Features: Overview
Generation
Markets
Transmission
Visualization
Renewables
Financials
Gas Modelling
Timeframes
Stochastic
DSM
Portfolio
Optimization
Customizations
PLEXOS Features
Generation
Optimal capacity expansion
Unit commitment
Heat rate model
Maintenance optimization
Monte Carlo simulation
Fuel constraints
Emission constraints
Technical limits
Auxiliary use
Ancillary services
CCGT & CHP
SCUC (Contingency)
Transmission
Radial and meshed networks
Regional pricing
Nodal pricing
Large-scale networks AC & DC
Interface limits
Losses (regional & zonal)
LMP decomposition
Wheeling charges
Pricing methods
Contingencies and SC-OPF
SCUC (Contingency)
ISO level outputs
Transformers
Phase shifters
Interfaces
Renewables
All types
Energy constraints
Must-run limits
External profiles
Cascading Hydro
Pumped Storage
Uncertainty
Integrated Gas Modelling
Basins
Fields
Storage
Pipeline
External gas markets
Optimal capacity expansion
Transmission constraints
Peak shaving services
Linepack optimization
Demand forecasting
Production constraints
Nodal processing
Demand bids and quantity
Production cost tranches
Gas contracts
Pipeline de-rating
Gas Model Planned Features
LNG shipment optimization
modelling
Stochastic
Variable inputs
Correlations
Stochastic optimization
Monte Carlo
Box-Jenkins methods
Brownian with mean reversion
Demand Bidding &
Participation
Energy
Ancillary Services
Interruptible loads
Markets &
Portfolio Optimisation
Energy
Ancillary Services
Heat
Fuel
Capacity
Financials
Financial contracts
CfD & FTR
Generator bid formation
Gaming models
Pricing and Uplift
Escalators
Visualisation
Geospatial
Pre-set results graphs
Google Earth
Timeframes
1-minute to 10’s of years
Constraint decomposition
LDC model
Chronological model
Time Slices
Customizations
Generic
constraints
Open PLEXOS
Automation
Data retrieval
6
Energy Exemplar
PLEXOS Scope
7
PLEXOS Simulator Structure
Long Term Optimal Investment
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological
10 + year
studies
Build & Retire
Production &
Transmission
Captures
Production
Contracts
PLEXOS Simulator Structure
Long Term Optimal Investment
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological
Schedules
maintenance
Models forced
outages
Computes LOLP,
optimal reserve
levels etc
PLEXOS Simulator Structure
Long Term Optimal Investment
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological
Breaks down
constraints
Optimises
constraints in
storages, fields
etc
Fast results for
MT studies
PLEXOS Simulator Structure
Long Term Optimal Investment
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological
Chronological
optimisation in
each ST period
Emulates market
clearing engines
Captures
competitive
behaviour eg
Nash-Cournot
PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model
MODELLING THE IMPACT OF LNG
DEMAND ON THE EAST COAST GAS
MARKET
CASE STUDY: NSW
Key PLEXOS® Gas Module Interface Classes
Icon
Class
Description
Gas Basin
Basins from which gas is produced
Gas Field
Field from which gas is extracted
Gas Storage
Storage where gas is injected/extracted
Gas Pipeline
Pipeline for transporting gas
Gas Node
Connection point in gas network
Gas Demand
Demand for gas covering nodes
Energy Exemplar
13
Study topology and assumptions
QSN
Link
QLD
•
Maximization of social welfare by
taking a least-cost modelling approach.
•
Perfectly competitive market – no
market power of participants
•
LNG netback price of $13/GJ in QLD
•
LNG demand - 6 trains totalling
1518PJ/Year by 2023
•
New build variables
development in NSW
•
Production
and
transmission
constraints from AEMO GSOO 2013
•
Published AEMO natural gas load used
SA
MSP
Pipeline
NSW
SEA gas
Pipeline
VIC
Tasmanian gas
pipeline
Eastern gas
pipeline
for
CSG
TAS
Energy Exemplar
14
Results
Average Gas Price ($/GJ)
Scenario 1 - No Netback Production
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Year
No Storage
With Storage
With CSG Development
Energy Exemplar
15
Results
Average Gas Price ($/GJ)
Scenario 2 - Netback Production
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Year
No Storage
With Storage
With CSG Development
Energy Exemplar
16
Conclusion – Where/how does optimization fit in our market?
• Optimal investment
planning
• Cost savings on portfolio
in the long term
LT Modelling
Maintenance
MT Modelling
• Resource
Management for gas
prices
• Resource Allocation
and Planning
• Contract Portfolio and
Swing Optimization
ST Modelling
• Demand Side
Management
• Peak Demand
Shaving
• Shortage
Curtailment
• Maintenance
Planning
• Optimal Out-ofService Units
Management
Energy Exemplar
17
Energy Exemplar

similar documents