Introduction to Project Management

Report
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P.I.I.M.T
American University of Leadership
Ahmed Hanane, MBA, Eng, CMA, Partner
email: [email protected]
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Project Scheduling: Networks,
Duration Estimation, and
Critical Path
09-02
After completing this chapter, students will be
able to:
 Understand and apply key scheduling
terminology.
 Apply the logic used to create activity
networks, including predecessor and successor
tasks.
 Develop an activity network using Activity-onNode (AON) techniques.
 Perform activity duration estimation based on
the use of probabilistic estimating techniques.
09-03
After completing this chapter, students will be
able to:
 Construct the critical path for a project
schedule network using forward and backward
passes.
 Identify activity float and the manner in which
it is determined.
 Calculate the probability of a project finishing
on time under PERT estimates.
 Understand the steps that can be employed to
reduce the critical path.
09-04
09-05
FIGURE 9.1 Johannesburg Soccer City Stadium
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall


Project scheduling requires us to follow
some carefully laid-out steps, in order, for
the schedule to take shape.
Project planning, as it relates to the
scheduling process, has been defined by
the PMBoK as:
The identification of the project objectives
and the ordered activity necessary to complete
the project including the identification of
resource types and quantities required to carry
out each activity or task.
09-06
o Successors
o Predecessors
o Network diagram
o Serial activities
o Concurrent activities
B
D
A
C
09-07
E
F
B
• Merge activities
• Burst activities
• Node
• Path
• Critical Path
D
A
C
09-08
E
F
09-099.2 Alternative Activity Networks for Term Paper Assignment
FIGURE
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The same mini-project is shown with activities
on arc…
E
B
D
F
C
…and activities on node.
E
D
B
F
C
09-010
Early Start
Activity Float
Late Start
09-11
ID Number
Early Finish
Activity Descriptor
Activity Duration Late Finish
FIGURE 9.4
09-12
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Serial activities are those that flow from one to
the next, in sequence.
FIGURE
9.5
09-13
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When the nature of the work allows for more than one activity
to be accomplished at the same time, these activities are called
concurrent and parallel project paths are constructed through the
network.
FIGURE 9.6
09-14
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09-15
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FIGURE 9.7
FIGURE 9.8
09-16
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FIGURE 9.10
09-17
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FIGURE 9.11
09-18
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Past experience
Expert opinion
Mathematical derivation – Beta
distribution
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ba
Most likely (m)
2
Activity Variance = s  

Most pessimistic (b)
 6 
Most optimistic (a)
a  4m  b
Activity Duration = TE 
6
09-19
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2
FIGURE 9.14 Symmetrical (Normal) Distribution for
Activity Duration Estimation
09-20
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FIGURE 9.15 Asymmetrical (Beta) Distribution for Activity Duration Estimation
09-21
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Name: Project Delta
Table 9.2
Durations are listed in weeks
Activity
Description
Optimistic
Likely
Pessimistic
A
Contract signing
3
4
11
B
Questionnaire design
2
5
8
C
Target market ID
3
6
9
D
Survey sample
8
12
20
E
Develop presentation
3
5
12
F
Analyze results
2
4
7
G
Demographic analysis
6
9
14
H
Presentation to client
1
2
4
09-22
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09-23
Forward pass – an additive move through
the network from start to finish
Backward pass – a subtractive move
through the network from finish to start
Critical path – the longest path from end
to end which determines the shortest
project length
Forward Pass Rules (ES & EF)
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ES + Duration = EF
EF of predecessor = ES of successor
Largest preceding EF at a merge point
becomes EF for successor
Backward Pass Rules (LS & LF)
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09-24
LF – Duration = LS
LS of successor = LF of predecessor
Smallest succeeding LS at a burst point
becomes LF for predecessor
Project Delta
Activity
Table 9.4
Description
Predecessors
Estimated Duration
None
5
A
Contract signing
B
Questionnaire design
A
5
C
Target market ID
A
6
D
Survey sample
B, C
13
E
Develop presentation
B
6
F
Analyze results
D
4
G
H
Demographic analysis
Presentation
C
E, F, G
9
2
09-25
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FIGURE 9.16 Partial Project Activity Network with Task Durations
09-26
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FIGURE 9.18 Activity Network with Forward Pass
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09-27
FIGURE 9.19 Activity Network with Backward Pass
09-28
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FIGURE 9.20 Project Network with Activity Slack and Critical Path
Note: Critical path is indicated with bold arrows.
09-29
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FIGURE 9.24
09-30
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Project ABC can be completed more
efficiently if subtasks are used
A(3)
A1(1)
B(6)
A2(1)
B1(2)
Laddered
ABC=12 days
09-31
C(9)
ABC=18 days
A3(1)
B2(2)
C1(3)
B3(2)
C2(3)
C3(3)
FIGURE 9.25
09-32
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Eliminate tasks on the CP
Convert serial paths to parallel when
possible
Overlap sequential tasks
Shorten the duration on critical path tasks
Shorten
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09-33
early tasks
longest tasks
easiest tasks
tasks that cost the least to speed up
1.
2.
3.
4.
Understand and apply key scheduling
terminology.
Apply the logic used to create activity
networks, including predecessor and successor
tasks.
Develop an activity network using Activity-onNode (AON) techniques.
Perform activity duration estimation based on
the use of probabilistic estimating techniques.
09-34
5.
6.
7.
8.
Construct the critical path for a project
schedule network using forward and backward
passes.
Identify activity float and the manner in which
it is determined.
Calculate the probability of a project finishing
on time under PERT estimates.
Understand the steps that can be employed to
reduce the critical path.
09-35

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