Slide 1

Report
THE MAJOR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL CHALLENGES
FACING THE UNITED STATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
EMERGING MARKETS
Earl H. Fry
[email protected]
Presentation at George Mason University
24 February 2011
WHY THE UNITED STATES IS PERHAPS A
SUPERPOWER IN RELATIVE DECLINE
(1) The rise of competitor nations and groups of nations
(China, EU, etc.); BRICs; few decades ago, China and India
considered peripheral players in global economy—a third of
humanity
(2) The potent combination of (a) globalization; (b)
unprecedented technology change; and (c) creative
destruction; 2008-627,000 businesses created and 665,000
lost; 2009—25.1 million jobs created, 30.6 million lost (out of
total of 154 million civilian labor force 16 years +); Oct 2010—
civilian labor participation rate 64.5%--lowest since 1984—
”lost decade” for many American households
(3) 15 major “fault lines” within the United States
AMERICA’S 15 DOMESTIC FAULTLINES
Beltway Follies
Campaign Financing
Government Debt
External Debt and Dwindling Importance of the U.S. Dollar
Entitlement Explosion
Health Care
Education
Plight of the American Household
The New Gilded Age and Wall Street’s Debacle
Infrastructure Deterioration
Intergenerational Strife and Festering Cleavages
Immigration and the Failure to Attract the Best
and the Brightest
Federalism
General Apathy and a Paucity of Civic Engagement
U.S. Foreign Policy
GLOBALIZATION, TECHNOLOGY CHANGE, AND
CREATIVE DESTRUCTION
• The world is not yet flat, but interdependence, interconnectedness,
and vulnerability to external influences are solidifying
• Rapid technology change is without precedent—doubling
information base every 5 years or so
• Schumpeter’s creative destruction—simultaneous creation and
destruction of businesses and jobs—impact upon nations
(Argentina in 1909 world’s 8th highest per capita income—85th in
2008); metro areas (Silicon Valley vs. Detroit), enterprises, and
households
• Transitions between now and 2050 will be a rollercoaster ride for
many of earth’s inhabitants—”fortunes” of nations and households
can increase or decrease rapidly
Connecting The International To The Local
INTERNATIONAL SECTOR
weapons
proliferation
conflict
sports and
entertainment
economics
cyberspace
terrorism
immigration
energy
religion and
ideology
environment
culture
resources
crime
disease
AMERICAN CITIES AND
NEIGHBORHOODS
PINPOINTING DOMESTIC PROBLEMS
• A “lost decade”—more private sector jobs beginning 2000 than end
2009; higher poverty rate; larger number of people without health
insurance; median household real income lower; threats to 3 major
sources of household wealth
• Concentration of wealth and growing political influence of
wealthy—taxes on hedge-fund managers—pay to play and golden
rule—anonymous campaign contributions—DYSFUNCTIONAL
GOVERNANCE
• Wall Street debacle—privatization of profits but socialization of
losses
• Brainpower challenges
• Attracting the best and brightest from abroad
• Government debt—only 45, 46, and 47 worse as % GDP; fy 2012
proposed budget and Germany
AMERICA’S ECONOMIC STRENGTHS
• World’s largest national economy
• World’s largest trading nation
• World’s largest foreign direct investor
• World’s major portfolio investor
• World’s 3rd most populous nation
• World’s 4th largest nation territorially
• World’s leader in technological innovation
• Leader in job creation
• Very affluent nation with growing
marketplace
• World’s most dynamic and diversified
economy
• 1 of 3 leading nations in resources and
energy
• Very stable political system
• Very stable economic system
• Resiliency and adaptation
THE UNITED STATES AT MID-CENTURY
• Almost 440 million people with over 80% of growth
attributable to immigration
• Perhaps a “majority minority” country by 2042
• 85% or more will be urbanized, with most growth
concentrated in largely self-contained suburbs
• U.S. will remain a military superpower
• In many other dimensions, U.S. may be a declining
superpower in relative terms
• What will be the quality of life for the average American?
EMERGING MARKETS AND THE UNITED STATES:
THE TECTONIC-CHANGE SCENARIO
•
•
•
•
•
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Western vs. other development models
Decline in influence of the trans-Atlantic region
Economic issues
Political issues
Military issues
Globalization, regionalism, nationalism
IMPLICATIONS FOR EMERGING MARKETS
IN THE ABSENCE OF TECTONIC CHANGE
• Continue to move forward with successful programs
• Asia could become an economic superpower
• U.S. will continue to be a huge consumer market—trade,
investment, supply chain, and tourism linkages—U.S. not simply an
importer of raw materials and energy products
• Consider free trade agreements with North America
• U.S. needs to strengthen North American and hemispheric
economic relations
• U.S. and emerging markets need to implement “best practices”
from home and abroad
• Maximize the positive features of globalization and technology
transfer—win-win perspectives
• Brainpower exchanges
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
• The fate of the United States as a superpower will
largely be determined by the American people
• There are also potential weaknesses in all of the
competitor nations and groups of nations
• Americans must not succumb to Linus Van Pelt’s
lament
• RENAISSANCE AMERICA--the plan for renewal can
work, but it will require widespread public awareness,
commitment to major changes, and a large dose of
short-term pain
• North American economic cooperation
• International relations and U.S.-emerging market
relations may change substantially

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