Document

Report
Inspiring change for people
and the environment
Green Deal for Real: Key
Considerations for projects
Stuart Hay Senior Consultant
About Changeworks
We work with public and third sector organisations,
schools, communities and businesses to…
Inspire and enable
Share our
action to reduce
knowledge and
CO2, waste and
learn from others to
fuel poverty
maximise our impact
Build confidence
Deliver the best
and skills to make
possible service
sustainable choices
creatively and
professionally
…and we focus our expertise on energy, waste and the sustainable use of resources
Consultancy services
• Low-energy retrofit projects
– Energy efficiency
– Renewables
• Technical support
– Hard-to-treat housing
• Energy & financial analysis
– EPCs, SAP, NHER
– SHQS / EES compliance
– Stock modelling
• Feasibility studies
• Tenant guidance
The Green Deal For Real
• Context
• The Carbon Heart Assessment Tool
• Examples exploring issues around the Green
Deal in terms of assessing projects
• Some final thoughts on where we are
Project Drivers
Statutory
target
Maintain
property
CO2
Why
Retrofit
Finance
Comfort
Fuel bills
The Green Deal
A financial mechanism made possible
by the magic of energy efficiency
  + 
  ≥
20
Its Simple: What could possibly go wrong?
Capital costs
• Market conditions / competition /
uptake / innovation
• Economies of scale (social housing)
• Costs of finance (market)
• Inflation
• Fees and project management
• Hidden additional costs
• Re-decoration
• Decanting / voids
• Age and value of existing assets
• Contingencies
Actual costs
• Golden Rule subsidy
ECO Carbon Reduction
• Social / fuel poverty subsidy
ECO Affordable Warmth
Carbon Saving Communities
• Carbon price / factor for project
(base price)

£   2 =
 
Savings
• Software Predictions (SAP)
• Real world
– Actual user behaviour vs. software
Rebound effect
Comfort level
Occupancy pattern
– Actual performance of measure vs. software
Installation
Maintenance
Operation
• Fuel price increases
• Inflation
Project assessment tools
– Carbon HEART
•
Home Energy Analysis Retrofit
Tool (HEART)
•
Calculates:
– Capital costs
– Energy savings
– Carbon savings
– CO2 per £ spent
– SAP and NHER ratings
– SHQS compliance
– Fuel poverty indicators
– Green Deal/ECO finance
– Analysis of retrofit scenarios
– Investment recommendations
Carbon HEART
•
Full, detailed analysis of
investment options
– For all stock
– For each archetype
– For each sub-archetype
•
Also analyses impact of
numerous variables not
recognised by other energy
software
–
–
–
–
Householder heating patterns
Repayment interest rates
Inflation (fuel bill rises)
Rebound effect
Carbon HEART
•
Up-to-date databases
– Retrofit costs
– CO2 factors
– Fuel costs
•
Accurate, ‘real-life’ outputs
– Uses actual property data
(drawings, specifications etc.)
– Uses actual retrofit costs (agreed
in advance)
– Can use any energy data (RdSAP,
SAP, NHER etc.)
– Does not rely on generic averages
Carbon HEART
•
Well suited to complex
property types
– Blocks
– Terraces
– Tenements
•
–
–
–
–
Strategic investment tool for
social landlords
Baseline performance
Impact of different retrofit
scenarios
Indentifies optimal scenario
Best Value For Money
Issue 1: Identifying Cost
Effective Solutions
•
3-storey No Fines block
– Double glazing
– Non-condensing gas combi boiler
– Concrete walls, no insulation
•
Modelled 3 improvement
scenarios
1. External wall insulation
2. As above, plus
• Loft top-up
• Condensing boilers
• Lighting
• Improved double glazing
3. As above, plus
• Floor insulation
• PV
Carbon HEART –Targets
No Eco support
•
•
All 3 retrofit scenarios will meet
2020 CO2 target
Meeting 2050 target will be
much more challenging
•
•
Limited additional savings
achieved for higher-cost retrofit
scenarios
Scenario 2 & 3 waste resources
Carbon HEART – Scenarios
Limited additional
benefit from investment
Carbon HEART – Scenarios
FITs level?
Level of ECO available?
Golden Rule Able?
Carbon HEART – Example
Issue 2: Hard to Treat Measures
•
Historic Scotland
Technical Paper 16
•
Financial modelling of
traditional property types
– Detached cottage
– Tenement flat
•
Identified qualifying
measures
•
Tested variables to assess
impact on eligibility
Hard to Treat Properties
•
Detached cottage
–
–
–
–
–
•
600mm sandstone walls
Solid & timber floors
Single glazing
No loft insulation
Coal & electric heating
Tenement flat
–
–
–
–
Mid-floor
600mm sandstone walls
Single glazing (extensive)
‘G’ rated gas boiler
Variables
•
Energy rating software
•
Interest rates
•
Inflation (fuel costs)
•
Rebound effect
•
Heating patterns / behaviour
•
Installation costs
– (Used actual £ data provided
by Historic Scotland)
Improvement measures
•
Walls (internal only)
– Blown beads
– Slimline ‘blanket’
– Thicker (100mm) fibre board
•
Windows
–
–
–
–
•
Double glazing x 2
Secondary glazing x 2
Shutters
Draughtproofing
Floors
– Timber floor hemp board
– Solid floor board
Improvement measures
•
Roofs
– Sheep wool
•
Doors
– New insulated front door
– Insulate existing door
•
Heating
–
–
–
–
–
•
Gas boiler & full controls
Electric storage heaters
Biomass boiler
HWC & pipe insulation
HWC thermostat
(Also packaged measures)
Results – detached house
Wall insulation Eligible?
(Blown beads)
Loft
insulation
Solid floor Eligible?
insulation
HWC
Eligible AW only
insulation
Secondary
glazing
Door
upgrade
Timber floor
insulation
Wall insulation
(blanket)
New
door
Biomass
Eligible AW only
boiler
Double
glazing
Draught
proofing
Not recognised by
RdSAP
Results – tenement flat
Eligible?
Wall insulation
(blown beads)
Draught
proofing
Secondary
glazing
Gas boiler
Slim
double
glazing
Wall insulation
(blanket)
Wall insulation
(fibre board)
Shutters
HWC
insulation
HWC
thermostat
Door Door
Electric
heating
Secondary
glazing
Double
glazing
Not recognised by
RdSAP
Issue 3: Software Limitations
• Theoretical average
• High assumed heating use
+ poor assumed U-values
= over-estimated savings
• Only as good as the
assessor collecting and
entering the data
• Time and cost penalty for
going beyond default values
In use factors
• Performance factor catered
for
–
–
–
–
‘In-use’ factors
Will reduce available finance
Will exclude some measures
Will be updated over time &
account for in situ results
“The in-use factor is not intended
to protect against occupants
changing their behaviour, for
example, comfort taking to achieve
a warmer home. We recognise that
such comfort taking can be a major
reason for the apparent
underperformance.” DECC
Issue 4: Funding for measures
• Green Deal Loan (7.5% over 20 years)
• Savings (1% interest) or Mortgage (4.25% 20 years) (Public Sector 2.86%)
• Energy Company Obligation ECO
–
–
–
–
Rate of deployment and timing
Development of the carbon market / brokerage
Energy company priorities (PR)
Ofgem and government tinkering
Green Deal Loan Analysis
Changes
to loan
details
Effect
on ECO
The Market Place for ECO
• Ideal ECO scenario
– Avoid expensive hard to treat
properties
– Find tenants that qualify for
affordable warmth stream
– Similar properties / economies
of scale (social housing)
– Basic measures in poor (low
SIMD) areas
• Maximise £-per-tonne-CO2
– Off gas properties (rural?)
– Terraces with external wall
insulation
£
CO2
Other Considerations
• Timing and cost of
technology – penalties for
early adopters (e.g. solar PV)
• Future proofing vs. shortterm targets
• Full lifecycle costing / retrofit
vs. replacement
• Issues beyond energy
efficiency e.g. housing
management or property
conservation
• Wider project benefits e.g.
health, energy security
economic spin offs
How the Green Deal is going to
work is still a puzzle
• Lots of variables
• Lots of uncertainties
– Technical
– Human
– Financial
Fingers crossed!
Inspiring change for people
and the environment
Thank you for listening
[email protected]

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