Project Overview - National Statistical Coordination Board

Report
The Philippine Millennium
Development Goals:
Where Are We Now?
Presented by:
DIRECTOR ERLINDA M. CAPONES
Social Development Staff
National Economic and Development Authority
Philippine Millennium Development Goals:
Are We On Track?
I. Where are we in terms of achieving
the MDGs?
II. How do we accelerate the attainment
of the MDGs?
III. How do we assess our statistical
database system?
IV. How do we improve MDG monitoring?
Population
Size:
76.Million
(2000)
Estimated
Population:
88.7 Million
(2007)
Land area:
300,000
square
kilometers
Islands:
7,107
Regions:
17
I. Where are we in terms of
achieving the MDGs?
TRACKING METHODOLOGY
Ratio of required annual rate of change to reach the
target to actual annual rate of change where:
Actual Annual Rate of Change = Current – Baseline
No. of yrs. from baseline to current year
Required Annual Rate of Change = Target – Current
No. of yrs. from current year to target year
Ratio = Required Annual Rate of Change
Actual Annual Rate of Change
How do we assess whether
MDG targets will be met?
Probability of
Attaining the Target
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
Ratio
> 2.0
1.5 to 2.0
< 1.5
MDG
Rate of Progress:
Philippines MDG Targets
BASELINE
(1990 or year
closest to 1990)
CURRENT
LEVEL
TARGET
BY 2015
PROBABILITY
OF
ATTAINING
THE TARGET
ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER
Proportion of population below
Subsistence threshold
24.3
13.5
12.15
(2003)
Poverty threshold
Proportion of families below
Subsistence threshold
45.3
20.4
30.0
(2003)
10.2
22.65
10.2
(2003)
Poverty threshold
Proportion of households with per
capita intake < 100% dietary energy
requirement
% underweight among 0-5 year old
children
39.9
69.4
24.4
(2003)
56.9
19.95
24.6
(2005)
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
34.7
HIGH
17.25
HIGH
(2003)
34.5
HIGH
Rate of Progress:
Philippines MDG Targets
MDG
BASELINE
(1990 or year
closest to 1990)
CURRENT
LEVEL
TARGET
BY 2015
PROBABILITY
OF
ATTAINING
THE TARGET
26.7
HIGH
19
HIGH
REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY
Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000
live births)
80
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live
births)
57
32
(2006)
24
(2006)
COMBAT HIV / AIDS, MALARIA AND OTHER DISEASES
HIV prevalence rate
<1%
<1%
<1%
HIGH
(2010)
Malaria morbidity rate (per
100,000 patients)
123
59
24
(2004)
(2010)
HIGH
ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
Proportion of families with access
to safe drinking water
73.7
Proportion of families with access
to sanitary toilet facility
67.6
80.2
86.8
HIGH
86
HIGH
(2004)
86.2
(2004)
MDG
BASELINE
(1990 or year
closest to 1990)
Rate of Progress:
Philippines MDG Targets
CURRENT
LEVEL
TARGET
BY 2015
PROBABILITY
OF
ATTAINING
THE TARGET
100
LOW
84.67
LOW
81.04
LOW
ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION
Elementary participation rate
85.1
84.4
(2005-2006)
Elementary cohort survival rate
68.4
69.9
(2005-2006)
Elementary completion rate
66.5
67.99
(2005-2006)
PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER WOMEN
Ratio of girls to 100 boys
Elementary education
95.05
Secondary education
104.2
94.27
100
LOW
100
LOW
52.2
LOW
(2005)
106.83
IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH
Maternal mortality ratio
209
162
(2006)
INCREASE ACCESS TO REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH SERVICES
Prevalence of men and
women/couples practicing
responsible parenthood
40
50.6
(2006)
80
LOW
Rate of Progress: Sub-National MDG Targets
Goal 1
Goal 2
Proportion
of
population
below
subsistence
threshold
Proportion
of
population
below
poverty
threshold
Prevalence
of
malnutrition
among 0-5
year-old
children
Proportion of
households
with per capita
intake below
100% dietary
energy
requirement
CAR
High
High
High
Low
I
High
High
Medium
II
High
High
III
High
IV-A
Goal 3
Elementary
cohort survival
rate
Ratio of girls
to 100 boys
in
elementary
Ratio of girls
to 100 boys in
secondary
Low
Low
Low
Low
High
High
High
Low
High
High
High
Low
Medium
Low
Low
High
High
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Medium
High
Low
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
IV-B
Low
Low
Low
High
Low
Low
Low
High
V
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
Medium
VI
High
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Medium
VII
High
High
High
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Low
VIII
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
High
IX /2
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
X
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Low
XI/3
High
High
High
High
Low
Low
Low
Low
XII /4
High
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Low
High
CARAGA
Low
Low
High
No baseline
Low
Low
Low
High
ARMM
High
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Low
High
NCR
High
High
High
High
Low
High
Low
High
Region
Elementary
participation
rate
Rate of
of Progress:
Progress:Sub-National
Sub-NationalMDG
MDGTargets
Targets
Rate
Goal 4
Goal 6
Goal 5
Under-5
mortality rate
(per 1,000
children)
Infant
mortality
rate (per
1,000 live
births)
Maternal
mortality
ratio
Prevalence
of men and
women/
couples
practicing
responsible
parenthood
CAR
High
Low
High
I
High
High
II
High
III
Goal7
HIV Prevalence
Malaria
morbidity rate
(per 100,000
population)
Proportion of
families with
access to safe
drinking water
Proportion of
families with
access to
sanitary toilet
facility
Low
*
High
High
High
High
Low
*
High
High
High
High
High
Low
No data
Low
High
High
High
Low
High
Low
*
**
High
High
IV-A
High
High
High
Low
*
**
High
High
IV-B
High
High
Low
Low
No data
**
Low
High
V
High
High
Low
Low
No data
High
Medium
High
VI
High
High
Low
Low
*
**
High
High
VII
High
High
High
Low
*
No baseline
High
High
VIII
High
High
Low
Medium
No data
No data
High
High
IX /2
High
High
Low
Low
*
**
High
High
X
High
High
Low
Low
No data
High
High
High
XI/3
High
High
High
Low
No baseline
High
High
High
XII /4
High
High
Medium
Low
*
No baseline
High
High
High
No baseline
No baseline
Regions
CARAGA
High
High
Low
Low
No reported
cases
ARMM
High
High
High
Low
*
**
No baseline
No baseline
NCR
High
Medium
Medium
Low
*
High
Medium
High
II. How do we accelerate the
attainment of the MDGs?
MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE

Addressing wide disparities across
regions

Curbing the high population growth rate

Accelerating the implementation of
basic education and health reforms
MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE
•Ensuring strict enforcement of laws pertinent
to the achievement of the MDGs
•Strengthening the capacity of LGUs to
deliver basic services and manage
programs and projects
• Ensuring transparency and accountability
in government transactions
MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE
•Generating and mobilizing increased
resources for MDG-related programs and
projects
•Strengthening partnership with NGOs,
business sector and ODA community
III. How do we assess our
statistical database system?
What are the indicators used in
monitoring the MDGs?
Total Indicators
Available
Not Available
Not Applicable
48
30
7
11
Total MDG Indicators = 48
1. Proportion of population
below $1 (PPP) per day
2. Poverty gap ratio
3. Share of poorest quintile in
national consumption
4. Prevalence of underweight
children under 5 yrs of age
5. Proportion of population
below minimum level of
dietary energy consumption
6. Net enrolment ratio in
primary education
7. Proportion of pupils starting
grade 1 who reach grade 6
8. Literacy rate of 15-24 year
old
9. Ratio of girls to boys in
primary and secondary
education
10. Ratio of literate females to
males
11. Share of women in wage
employment in nonagricultural sector
12. Proportion of seats held
by women in national
parliament
13. Under-five mortality rate
14. Infant mortality rate
15. Proportion of 1 year-old
children immunized against
measles
16. Maternal mortality ratio
17. Proportion of births
attended by skilled health
personnel
18. HIV prevalence among
15-24 year old pregnant
women
19. Condom use rate of the
contraceptive prevalence
rate
20. Number of children
orphaned by HIV/AIDS
21. Prevalence and death
rates associated with
malaria
22. Proportion of pop. In
malaria risk areas using
effective malaria prevention
& treatment measures
23. Prevalence and death
rates associated with
tuberculosis
24. Proportion of
tuberculosis cases detected
and cured under directly
observed treatment short
course (DOTS)
25. Proportion of land area
covered by forest
26. Ratio of area protected
to maintain biological
diversity to surface area
27. Energy use per $1 GDP
28. Carbon dioxide emissions
29. Proportion of pop. using
solid fuels
30. Proportion of pop. with
sustainable access to
improved water source
31. Proportion of urban
population with access to
improved sanitation
32. Proportion of HH with
access to secure tenure
33. Net ODA, total and to
LDCs, as percentage of
OECD/DAC donors' gross
national income
34. Proportion of total bilateral,
sector-allocable ODA of
OECD/DAC donors to basic
social servcies
35. Proportion of bilateral ODA
of OECD/DAC donors that is
untied
36. ODA received in
landlocked countries as
proportion of their GNIs
37. ODA received in small
island developing States as
proportion of their GNIs
38. Proportion of total
developed country imports
39. Average tariffs
imposed by developed
countries on agricultural
products and textiles
and clothing from
developing countries
40. Agricultural support
estimate for OECD
countries as percentage
of their GDP
41. Proportion of ODA
provided to help build
trade capacity
42. Total number of
countries that have
reached their HIPC
decision points
completion points
43. Debt relief committed
under HIPC initiative, US$
44. Debt service as a %
of exports of goods and
services
45. Unemployment rate
of 15-24 yr. old
46. Proportion of pop.
With access to
affordable essential
drugs
47. Telephone lines and
cellular subscribers
48. Personal computers
in use and internet users
Available Indicators = 30
1. Proportion of
population below $1
(PPP) per day
2. Poverty gap ratio
3. Share of poorest
quintile in national
consumption
4. Prevalence of
underweight children
under 5 yrs of age
5. Proportion of
population below
minimum level of
dietary energy
consumption
6. Net enrolment ratio in
primary education
7. Proportion of pupils
starting grade 1 who
reach grade 6
Source: NSCB
8. Literacy rate of 15-24
year old
9. Ratio of girls to boys
in primary and
secondary education
10. Ratio of literate
females to males
11. Share of women in
wage employment in
non-agricultural sector
12. Proportion of seats
held by women in
national parliament
13. Under-five mortality
rate
14. Infant mortality rate
15. Proportion of 1
year-old children
immunized against
measles
16. Maternal mortality
ratio
17. Proportion of births
attended by skilled
health personnel
18. Condom use rate
of the contraceptive
prevalence rate
19. Prevalence and
death rates
associated with
malaria
20. Prevalence and
death rates
associated with
tuberculosis
21. Proportion of land
area covered by
forest
22. Ratio of area
protected to maintain
biological diversity to
surface area
23. Carbon dioxide
emissions (per capita)
and consumption of
ozone-depleting CFCs
24. Proportion of pop.
using solid fuels
25. Proportion of pop.
with sustainable
access to improved
water source
26. Proportion of urban
population with access
to improved sanitation
27. Proportion of HH
with access to secure
tenure
28. Debt service as a %
of exports of goods
and services
29. Unemployment
rate of 15-24 yr. old
30. Telephone lines
and cellular
subscribers
Not Available = 7
1.
2.
3.
4.
HIV prevalence among
15-24 year old pregnant
women
No. of children orphaned
by HIV/AIDS
Proportion of population in
malaria risk areas using
effective malaria
prevention and treatment
measures
Proportion of tuberculosis
cases detected and
cured under directly
observed treatment short
course (DOTS)
Source: NSCB
5.
6.
7.
Energy use (kg oil
equivalent) per $1 GDP
Proportion of population
with access to affordable
essential drugs on a
sustainable basis
Personal computer in use
pr 100 population and
internet users per 100
population
Not Applicable = 11
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Net ODA, total and to LDCs, as
percentage of OECD/DAC donors'
gross national income
Total no. of countries that have
reached their HIPC decision points
and number that have reached
their HIPC completion points
Debt relief committed under HIPC
initiative, US$
Proportion of total bilateral, sectorallocable ODA of OECD/DAC
donors to basic social servcies
(basic education, primary health
care, nutrition, safe water and
sanitation)
Proportion of bilateral ODA of
OECD/DAC donors that is untied
ODA received in landlocked
countries as proportion of their
GNIs
Source: NSCB
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
ODA received in small island
developing States as proportion of
their GNIs
Proportion of total developed
country imports (by value and
excluding arms) from developing
countries and LDCs, admitted free
of duties
Average tariffs imposed by
developed countries on
agricultural products and textiles
and clothing from developing
countries
Agricultural support estimate for
OECD countries as percentage of
their GDP
Proportion of ODA provided to help
build trade capacity (OECD and
WTO are collecting data that will
be available from 2001 onwards)
Additional Indicators
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Completion rate
Simple and Functional
Literacy rates
Drop-out rate
Gender-based violence
(GBV)
Gender development
index (GDI)
Gender empowerment
measure (GEM)
Labor force participation
rate (LFPR) by sex
Women’s participation in
governance
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Percentage of births
delivered in a health
facility
Prenatal coverage
Percentage of those
injected with tetanus
toxoid
Provision of iron tablet
supplements
Prevalence of men and
women/couples
practicing responsible
parenthood
(contraceptive
prevalence rate)
Major MDG Data Sources
Surveys
 Family Income and
Expenditures Survey (FIES)
 National Demographic and
Health Survey (NDHS)
 Family Planning Survey (FPS)
 Annual Poverty Indicators
Survey (APIS)
 National Nutrition Survey
(NNS)
 Functional Literacy,
Education and Mass Media
Survey (FLEMMS)
Government Agencies
National Statistics Office (NSO)
 National Statistical Coordination
Board (NSCB)
 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
 Commission on Higher Education
(CHED)
 Department of Education (DepEd)
 Department of Health (DOH)
 Department of Transportation
and Communication (DOTC)
 Department of Environment and
Natural Resources (DENR)
 Forest Management Bureau (FMB)
 Food and Nutrition Research
Institute (FNRI)
 National Telecommunications
Commission (NTC)

What are the problems in tracking
the MDG progress?
 Infrequent conduct of surveys
 Unavailability of data at the sub-national
level
 Incomparability of data
 Need to improve methodology in
determining probability of meeting the
MDG targets
IV. How do we improve
MDG monitoring?
MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE
 Regular conduct of censuses and
surveys
 Nationwide adoption of CommunityBased Monitoring System (CBMS)
 Adoption of small area estimates
MEETING THE 2015 CHALLENGE
 Explore possibility of adopting a
standard international methodology
for determining the probability of
meeting the MDG targets
 Capacity-building for data
generation, analysis, and monitoring
THANK YOU!

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