Project Parametric Estimating

Report
Project Parametric Estimating
Techniques for developing an
Estimating Model That Works
Presented by:
Creg Schumann &
Joseph Kestel
This document is proprietary to Project Consulting Group, Inc. and contains confidential information which is solely the prop erty of Project Consulting Group, Inc.
This document shall not be used, reproduced, copied, disclosed, and transmitted, in whole or in part, without the express con sent of Project Consulting Group.  2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
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Agenda
Review Estimating Concepts and Terminology
Estimating Methods
Estimating Tools
Inputs
Outputs
Developing a Parametric Model
MQ & FA
(Many Questions & Few Answers)
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Estimating Concepts and
Terminology
Top Down
Start with a high level budget (effort, duration, etc.) Break down to
the detail of “what” can be done
Bottom Up
Determine “what” must be built. Roll up the effort to higher level
tasks/activities/phases
Comparative
Compare to similar projects and extrapolate (Niku 6, Primavera,
MS Project Central, PM Office, Artemis, etc.)
Expert
Expert judgment methods such as Delphi, Wideband Delphi,
Round Robin
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Estimating Tools
Parametric Model
http://www.ispa-cost.org/
Models that define at a low level what must be
built/accomplished/etc. and how that low level is translated into an
estimate of effort, duration, cost, and schedule.
Simplistic example: Five widgets must be produced, the team can
produce 2.5 widgets in one day, one widget costs $1,000 to build
(labor and material), two widget machines are available, 50% of
construction time is added for machine maintenance.
3 days effort (1 for maintenance), 1.5 days duration, $5,000 cost
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Estimating Tools
COCOMO Model
http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/index.html
Takes size of work to be done, applies formulas with risk factors
(scaling factors and effort multipliers) to determine person months
of effort. Also can be used to determine potential duration and
staffing models.
Function Point Model
http://www.ifpug.org/
Method of providing size as input to other estimation models/tools
(SEER/SEM, Cost Xpert, Construx Estimate, Estimate Pro,
COCOMO, various Parametric Models, etc.)
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Inputs to Estimating Tools
Requirements
Data (if available)
Corporate
Effort
Breakout
Industry
Effort
Breakout
Risk Factors
Effort Multipliers
Scaling Factors
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Outputs from Estimating Tools
Completed Work Breakdown Structure
Updated Requirements
Updated Risk Assessment
Revised Capability Assessment
Initial Resource Cost Estimates (Budget)
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Developing a Parametric Model
Our Goal:
To develop a (parametric) model that would
reduce the time to estimate project effort
based on initial high-level project requirements
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Developing a Parametric Model
Our Objectives:
Shorten the process from high-level requirements
definition through to WBS generation
Estimate-to-Plan in nothing flat!
Project
Profile
WBS
Utilize corporate and industry data to drive accuracy of
the model
Keep it simple!
Users should be able to easily understand it and adjust it!
7/17/2015
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Developing a Parametric Model
Identify Parametric Opportunity
Design Design a Preliminary Parametric Model
Calibrate Calibrate and Validate the Model
Incorporate
Incorporate With Organizational Policies
and Processes
Maintain
Maintain and Improve the Model
Identify
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
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Identify Parametric Opportunity
Where is Parametric Estimation Applicable?
Where processes are reliable and repeatable
Where sufficient historical data exists to draw parametric
relationships
Where sufficient industry data exists to draw parametric
relationships
Where an organization is large enough to be able to take
frequent advantage of such a model and promote
maintenance of the model
7/17/2015
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Design a Parametric Model
Our Process:
Tie high-level requirements definition as input to
estimating model
Project
Profile
Estimating
Model
WBS
Assure that inputs are base on your business practices
and nomenclature
Assure that input criteria are understood and well
documented
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Design a Parametric Model
The Project Profile: “Identify the What”
What are some typical inputs for your industry?
Software Development
Financial Services
Retail
Construction
Utility/Telecom
Government
Please document inputs on the Breakout Session sheets
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Design a Parametric Model
Our Project Profile:
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Design a Parametric Model
Incorporate
Maintain
List as detailed as you can the various areas of the application you are estimating. If you are
unable to TTS
get to
a very detailed level, use budgeting
(10 avg.
Pyramid
Pyramid
Petecomplex reports) and place that
description in your project proposal.
Use the tables to the right to judge complexity (low, avg., high).
Detail Counting Area
Data Entry
Low
Screens
Insert Row(s) Above This Holder
Data Entry Totals
Reports
Average
Insert Row(s) Above This Holder
Reports Totals
Insert Row(s) Above This Holder
Query Totals
High
Functional Area
Data Entry
8
2
2
Tables Referenced 1-4 Data Elements
5-15 Data Elements
0
0
0
0-1
Low
Low
0
0
0
2
Low
Average
0
0
0
3+
Average
High
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 None
8
2
2
Low
Reports
Query Screens
Complexity Key
Complexity
Average
High
Functional Area
Reports
4
6
1
Tables Referenced 1-5 Data Elements
6-19 Data Elements
0
0
0
0-1
Low
Low
0
0
0
2-3
Low
Average
0
0
0
4+
Average
High
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 None
4
6
1
Low
Average
High
Functional Area
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 None
0
0
0
Queries
LOW:
One or two columns, Simple data transformations
Simple data transformations
AVG:
Multiple columns with sub-totals
Multiple data-element transformations
HIGH:
Multiple and intricate data-element transformations
Multiple and complex file (table) references
7/17/2015
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Design a Parametric Model
Our Process: “Build the Bridge”
Create an estimating model that will feed tasks within
the standardized WBS template
Project
Profile
Estimating
Model
WBS
Establish relationships between estimate inputs and
each deliverables-based task within your high-level WBS
Many-to-One relationships
One-to-One relationships
7/17/2015
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Design a Parametric Model
Our Process: “Build the Bridge”
Account for the variables:
Project
Profile
Estimating
Model
WBS
Establish initial base hours or percentages
of grouped hours to accomplish individual tasks
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Design a Parametric Model
Our Estimating Model:
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Identify
Design
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Incorporate
Maintain
7/17/2015
Design a Parametric Model
AB
1
FP Es timate
2
3
4 Data Entry Forms
5 Low
6 Avg
7 Hig h
8 Tota l
9
10 Reports
11 Low
12 Avg
13 Hig h
14 Tota l
15
16 Tables (Logical)
17 Low
18 Avg
19 Hig h
20 Tota l
21
22 Import/Export Files
23 Low
24 Avg
25 Hig h
26 Tota l
27
28 Query Screens
29 Low
30 Avg
31 Hig h
32 Tota l
33
34 Objects
35 Low
36 Avg
37 Hig h
38 Tota l
39
40 Tota l UA/F P
41 VAF :
AC
AD
AE
AF
AG
AH
AI
Es t. Cos t
$172,810.94
Hours
3323.29
Qty
F a ctor
8
2
2
12
Qty
UA-F P
3
4
6
F a ctor
4
6
1
11
Qty
UA-F P
4
5
7
F a ctor
21
4
0
25
Qty
F a ctor
Qty
F a ctor
0
0
0
0
Qty
Hrs .
147
40
0
187
A-F P
Hrs .
152.88
41.6
0
194.48
1720.15
468.07
0.00
2188.22
A-F P
A-F P
0
0
0
0
UA-F P
Hrs .
A-F P
0
0
0
0
284
295.36
E s t. Cos t
$9,735.83
$18,254.68
$4,259.42
$32,249.93
52
52
52
E s t. Cos t
$89,447.91
$24,339.57
$0.00
$113,787.48
E s t. Cos t
52
52
52
R a te
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Hrs .
0
0
0
0
52
52
52
R a te
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
E s t. Cos t
$14,603.74
$4,867.91
$7,301.87
$26,773.53
R a te
Hrs .
0
0
0
0
52
52
52
R a te
187.23
351.05
81.91
620.19
UA-F P
4
5
7
R a te
280.84
93.61
140.42
514.88
16.64
31.2
7.28
55.12
0
0
0
0
3
4
6
F a ctor
0
0
0
0
A-F P
UA-F P
5
7
10
Hrs .
24.96
8.32
12.48
45.76
16
30
7
53
UA-F P
7
10
15
0
0
0
0
A-F P
24
8
12
44
E s t. Cos t
52
52
52
R a te
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
E s t. Cos t
52
52
52
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
1.04
Copyright  2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
GROUP
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Design a Parametric Model
Our Process: “Create the Plan”
Utilize and update corporate WBS template
Adjust for time reporting and earned value calculations
(Develop a High-Level Stage/Activity WBS that eliminates confusing detail!)
Project
Profile
7/17/2015
Estimating
Model
WBS
Make the WBS deliverables-based!
Manage the details in a detailed WBS outside of this
WBS as a detailed checklist or task-list
This High-Level WBS should only be used for time
reporting and earned value calculations
Copyright  2003, Project Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
GROUP
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Design a Parametric Model
Our WBS:
7/17/2015
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Design a Parametric Model
Incorporate
Maintain
Project Estimate Summary
Size
Optimistic
Most Likely
Pessimistic
FP/PM Calc
Estimated Size (FP)
142
284
568
284
Equivalent KSLOC
5.37
10.74
21.47
10.74
Effort
Person Months Effort
9.60
19.97
41.55
22.36
1708.62
3195.47
5485.01
3577.95
Duration (Months)
7.39
9.27
11.63
9.60
Average Staff
1.30
2.15
3.57
2.33
Hours of Effort
Schedule
Staff
Productivity
Calculated FP/PM
Calculated FP/Hr
Staff Month
14.8
14.2
13.7
12.7
0.0831
0.0889
0.1036
0.0794
178
160
132
160
Cost
Blended Rate of $52
$
88,848.32
$
166,164.36
$
285,220.37
$
186,053.54
Phase Estimate
Select Lifecycle:
Waterfall
Select Model:
Most Likely
1
2
Effort (Hours)
Percent
Proposal
Percent
Amount
7%
223.68
7%
0.65
Analysis and Design
17%
543.23
20%
1.85
Construction
45%
1437.96
50%
4.63
Test Execution
19%
607.14
20%
1.85
0.28
Implementation
7/17/2015
Schedule (Months)
Amount
12%
383.46
3%
100%
3195.47
100%
9.27
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Calibrate and Validate the Model
Our Process:
Establish and readjust the relationships between:
Industry
Data
Project
Profile
Corporate
Data
Estimating
Model
WBS
Conduct variance analysis and adjust the estimating tool as
necessary
Test and revise as new projects are conducted and as
data is gathered
7/17/2015
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Incorporate into Organization
Our Process:
Establish Schedule
Based on duration calculations as well as forward and backward
paths, critical paths, and dependences, etc.
Establish Cost
Based on effort estimates (hours only) by generalize resource
listing and the percentage of work they will be expected to perform
Include blended rates (or specific rates if necessary) based on
groupings of expertise/dollars
Establish Staffing Models
Based on duration and loading model calculations
Make it real by looking at skill sets, dependencies, and availability
7/17/2015
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Incorporate
Maintain
Incorporate Into Organization
Our Process:
Create instructional documentation that directs repeatable
and reliable use when:
Completing the Project Profile
Adjusting the
Estimating Model components
Tailoring the WBS
Roll-out and train when
and where necessary
7/17/2015
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Identify
Design
Calibrate
Maintain
Incorporate
Maintain
Our Process:
Add risk weighting factors in the future to account
for this element within estimating model
Continue to test and revise as new projects
are conducted and data is gathered
Report variance (estimates-to-actuals) on:
Duration
Effort
Cost
Size
Staffing
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Many Questions / Few Answers
7/17/2015
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