Generic Template - Energy Bar Association

Report
Nuclear’s Role in the Clean
Energy Mix
The Energy Bar Mid-Year Meeting on
Energy Markets, Renewable Energy and Change
Washington, DC
December 3, 2009
David Heacock
President and Chief Nuclear Officer, Dominion Nuclear
Dominion at a Glance
Dominion
Generation
 Regulated
Generation
 Merchant Generation
Dominion
Energy
Dominion
Virginia Power
 Gas Distribution
 Electric
 Gas Transmission
and Storage
 Electric Transmission
 Producer Services
 Appalachian E&P
2
Distribution
 Unregulated Retail
Diverse, Balanced Generation Mix
3
Low Carbon Intensity
100 Largest U.S. Power Producers
(Pounds CO2 per MWh Output)
Dominion
Source: Natural Resources Defense Council, 2008 Study
4
Increasing Demand for Energy
5
Mounting Energy Gap
Peak Demand
(Megawatts)
22,000
Additional
Deficit of
4,600 MW
by 2019
20,000
18,000
16,000
2009
2019
Current generating capacity
Projected Dominion peak demand—PJM Forecast
*Updated 2009 to reflect projected demand growth between 2009 and 2019.
6
Distribution Growth Drivers
Additional Usage By Existing
Customers 40% of Growth
New Usage By New
Customers 60% of Growth
 Added Sq Ft per House
 Historically, 50,000 Connects
 Flat Screen TV
 2009: 30,000 Connects
 Home Computer Networks
 Transportation Growth
 New Appliances
 Military Expansion
 Digital Displays
 Data Centers
1050000
24,000
23,000
22,000
21,000
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
Dominion 2.2%
1000000
MW
950000
US 1.7%
900000
850000
800000
750000
20
20
20
19
18
17
16
7
20
D om inion
15
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
US
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Ye a r
MW
D e m a n d G ro w th
Military Expansions:
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)
Ft. Belvoir
 22 Projects on Base
 19,000 New Residents in 3 Yrs
 Initial Capacity 56 MVA
 230 kV Transmission Supply
 Eventual Build Out 100 MVA
Ft. Lee
 6 Major Facilities
 7 million Additional Sq Ft
 Initial Capacity 15 MVA
 Eventual Build Out 33 MVA
8
New Transportation Corridors
New Silver Line Rail Northern Virginia
 Phase I - 2013; Phase II - 2016
 Tyson’s Corner Impact
– 88 million Sq Ft added
– 100,000 new jobs
– 83,000 residents
– Build Out 480-830 MVA
 Relocation Work Begins January 2009
Norfolk Light Rail
 $232 M Project
 7.4 miles across Downtown Norfolk
 11 Passenger Stations
 Began 2007; Complete 2010
 Transport 6,000–12,000 daily
9
Data Centers, 2009 and Beyond:
24 / 7 Load Factor
Existing
Future (by 2013)
 36 Data Centers
 50 Data Centers
 200 MW of Existing Load
 700 MW of Future Load
 3% of Northern Virginia Load
 10% of Northern Virginia Load
10
Strategy for Meeting
Growing Demand
11
Conservation: Critical to Virginia’s Future
 Conservation will help meet Virginia’s growing
energy needs while protecting the environment
 Dominion is fully committed to state’s goal of
reducing energy consumption by 10 percent by
2022
 Dominion is developing
portfolio of demand-side
management programs and
evaluating “smart”
technologies
12
Demand-Side Management: Two Key Elements
Demand Response:
 Reduces peak electricity demand, often by
shifting usage to off-peak hours
 Improves reliability
 Easily measured and verified
Conservation:
 Reduces consumption of electricity
 Produces environmental benefits
 Poses new set of challenges:
- Requires change in customer behavior
- Harder to measure and verify
13
Smart Metering Technology
 Key component of Dominion’s Energy Conservation
strategy
 Customers in Midlothian and Charlottesville
participating in smart metering demonstration projects
 Customers save through the delivery of more
efficient operating voltages to their homes
 Other benefits include:
– improved outage reporting
– new time-sensitive pricing
14
Voltage Conservation
 Trabue Demonstration: 6,700 meters
 Charlottesville Demonstration: 45,000 meters
 Initial loss reduction focus areas include
– Conserving off-peak voltage and monitoring through AMI technology
 Successful demonstration of project on Trabue Circuit
(Midlothian)
– 5% voltage reduction using AMI technology has been demonstrated
– Average energy savings per 1% reduction exceeds 0.8%
– Trabue test results confirm full deployment savings of 2.34 million MWH
per year or 2.79% of the total system load
– Demonstrated energy savings from Voltage Conservation confirms
previously announced customer savings (and have risen to $1.7 billion
over 15 years)
15
Virginia RPS
 Federal RPS is under development
 Dominion’s existing utility-owned renewable assets reach 2%
level
 Dominion is growing its renewable project portfolio
 To comply with RPS requirements, Dominion needs:
– 4% by 2010
– 7% by 2016
– 12% by 2022
– 15% by 2025 (recently signed by Gov. Kaine)
 Evaluating all available options to meet targets:
– Existing utility-owned renewable generation
– Build new renewable facilities in Virginia
– Purchase RECs / renewable energy
16
Dominion’s Renewable Assets
Operating
Under
Development
Total
89 MW
217 MW
306 MW
Wind
282 MW
695 MW
977 MW
Hydro
327 MW
Biomass
327 MW
TOTAL RENEWABLE ASSETS:
1610 MW
Bath County: Dominion’s pumped storage facility helps make renewable energy dispatchable.
17
Infrastructure Growth Plan
Expanding Renewable Generation Portfolio
Facility
Status
Capacity
<<<<< Biomass >>>>>
Fowler
Prairie Fork
NedPower
Ridge I-II
Altavista
Pittsylvania
Operating
83 MW
Altavista
Operating
6 MW
VCHEC 1
Construction
117 MW
Undisclosed
Development 4
100 MW
Biomass Subtotal >>>
<<<<< Wind >>>>>
VCHEC
Pittsylvania
Wise County/VA Wind
Tazewell County/VA Wind
NedPower 2
Operating
132 MW
Fowler Ridge I 2
Operating
150 MW
Fowler Ridge II
Development 4
150 MW
Prairie Fork
Development 4
300 MW
Virginia Wind 2,3
Development 4
245 MW
Wind Subtotal >>>
Total Biomass and Wind
1)
2)
3)
4)
306 MW
Assumes 20% co-firing
Dominion’s 50% share
Includes Wise County and Tazewell County as well as other undisclosed facilities
18
Development projects are subject to change
977 MW
1,283 MW
Nuclear - Part of the Solution
19
U.S. Electric Net Generation by Source, 2008
Source: NRC 2009-2010 Information Digest – DOE/EIA
Monthly Energy Review, March 2009
20
U.S. Capacity Factors by Fuel Type
Fuel Type
Average Capacity Factors (%)
Nuclear
91.5
Coal (Steam Turbine)
70.8
Gas (Combined Cycle)
41.7
Gas (Steam Turbine)
14.6
Oil (Steam Turbine)
12.6
Hydro
27.4
Wind
31.1
Solar
21.1
Source: NEI - Ventyx Velocity Suite / Energy Information Administration
Updated: 4/09
21
U.S. Nuclear Industry Capacity Factors
(1971 – 2008)
Source: NEI - Energy Information Administration
Updated: 4/09
22
U.S. Average Plant Production Expenses $/Mwhr
Source: NRC 2009 – 2010 Information Digest – FERC Form 1 and
DOE/EIA Electric Power Annual 2008
23
U.S. Electricity Production Costs
1995-2008, In 2008 cents per kilowatt-hour
Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs. Production costs do not include
indirect costs and are based on FERC Form 1 filings submitted by regulated utilities. Production costs
are modeled for utilities that are not regulated.
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite
Updated: 5/09
24
Nuclear Economic Benefits
 $430 M in sales of goods and services
 $40 M in total labor income
 Every $1 spent by plant => creates $1.07 in local
community
 $20 M/yr in state and local tax revenue
 $75M/yr in federal tax payments
 400-700 permanent jobs at operating units
 1,400 – 1,800 during construction
 Forward price stability – fuel costs small
Source: NEI
25
Value of Environmental Benefits
 Avg nuclear plant avoids

10,000 tons of nitrogen oxides

32,000 tons of sulfur dioxide
 Equates to value of $4.7 M/yr
 Avg nuclear plant prevents 7 M metric tons of carbon
dioxide
 Equates to projected value of $130 – 208 M/yr
 Currently 20+ new reactors under consideration in
U.S.
 Investment of $6 – 8 B /per unit, depend on size
Source: NEI
26
Two Ways to Increase Nuclear Slice
Uprates
New Build
Improved measurement
5 Technologies
More efficient turbines
Least Costly Alternative
Carbon free
Challenge – can they be
built in time
27
Uprate Facts
 Jan 2009 124 uprates => 5,640 Mwe, equivalent
to five new reactors
 NRC reviewing or anticipating additional
applications totaling 2,333 Mwe
 March 2009 nuclear accounts for approximately
19.7% of U.S. net electrcial generation at 806
billion kilowatthours
Source: NRC 2009-2010 Information Digest
28
29
New Nuclear
 ESP – Early Site Permit

NRC has issue three (including one at the North Anna site)
 DC – Design Certifications


Issued four
Five under review
 Combined Operating License

Reviewing 13 applications for 22 reactors
Source: NRC 2009-2010 Information Digest
30
Timing – The Real Challenge
 1980’s:


Worldwide - 218 power reactors, average of one every 17 days
U.S. – average of one every 77 days
 Today

China as of October 2009





U.S. as of October 2009





11 operable, 8587 MWe
17 under construction, 17,540 MWe
34 planned, 36,380 MWe
90 proposed, 79,000 Mwe
104 operable, 101,119 MWe
1 under construction, 1,180 MWe
11 planned, 13,800 MWe
19 proposed, 25,000 Mwe
Act Now
Source: World Nuclear Association
http://world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html
31
Nuclear – Is the Solution
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33
Positive Trend in Safety Performance
Reactor Scrams
Actuations
34
Or
Virginia City Hybrid Energy CenterDelete?
change
previous slide
 Wise County project meets baseload energy needs and has
strong environmental features
 Will produce 585 MW of power using DOE-designated clean
coal technology
 Complete environmental package:
– Protects air quality; minimizes water
use
– Uses waste coal and biomass
 Sponsoring research at Virginia Tech to
determine feasibility of carbon capture and
storage technology
 Small-scale testing under way near Center
35
Increasing Nuclear Capacity:
Uprates and North Anna Unit 3
 Uprates add approximately 300 MW of new nuclear generation across
our nuclear fleet (except Kewaunee)
 North Anna Unit 3 will use advanced nuclear technology with no carbon
emissions
– Early Site Permit (ESP) received approval in November 2007;
submitted Combined Operating License (COL) application to build
and operate in November 2007
– Commercial operation by 2016 / 2017
– Third unit would boost Dominion’s percentage of power produced by
nuclear almost 10 percent in about 10 years
36

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