Document

Report
KwaZulu-Natal, driving trade and investment in
South Africa
Economic overview
February 14, 2012
Introduction
• Present on macro-economic performance
• Selection of indicators that relate to IP Forum’s role
• Give sense of direction; possibly direct next move
Contents
• Global economic outlook
• International investment
• FDI inflows and outflows
• Domestic investment
• Gross fixed capital formation (by sector, source, asset class)
• KwaZulu-Natal investment monitor (by asset class)
• Conclusions and recommendations
Global economic outlook
8
7
EECs
7.3
6.5
6.4
6.2
6
6.5
6.1
6.5
6.5
5.9
5.4
5
World
4.4
4.0
3.8
4
3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.0
3.9
3.3
DCs
2.4
2
2.6
2.5
2.4
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.2
1
0
2010
Source: IMF (2011,2012); WEO
2011
2012
2013
Global economic outlook
Difference from September
2011 WEO Projections
Year ago
2010
2011
1
Projections
2012
2013
2012
2013
5.2
3.2
3.8
1.6
3.3
1.2
3.9
1.9
–0.7
–0.7
–0.6
–0.5
United States
Euro Area
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
2
Other Advanced Economies
3
1.9
3.6
1.4
1.5
–0.1
4.4
2.1
3.2
5.8
1.8
1.6
3
1.6
0.4
0.7
–0.9
0.9
2.3
3.3
1.8
–0.5
0.3
0.2
–2.2
–1.7
1.7
0.6
1.7
2.6
2.2
0.8
1.5
1
–0.6
–0.3
1.6
2
2
3.4
0
–1.6
–1.0
–1.2
–2.5
–2.8
–0.6
–1.0
–0.2
–1.1
–0.3
–0.7
0
–0.9
–1.1
–2.1
–0.4
–0.4
–0.5
–0.3
Newly Industrialized Asian
Economies
8.4
4.2
3.3
4.1
–1.2
–0.3
World Output
Advanced Economies
Source: IMF (2012); WEO
Global economic outlook
Year over Year
2010 2011
1
Projections
2012
2013
Difference from Sept
2011 WEO Projections
2012
2013
World Output
Emerging and Developing Economies
5.2
7.3
3.8
6.2
3.3
5.4
3.9
5.9
–0.7
–0.7
–0.6
–0.6
Central and Eastern Europe
Commonwealth of Independent States
4.5
4.6
5.1
4.5
1.1
3.7
2.4
3.8
–1.6
–0.7
–1.1
–0.6
Russia
Excluding Russia
Developing Asia
China
India
4
ASEAN-5
Latin America and the Caribbean
Brazil
Mexico
5
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
4
6
9.5
10.4
9.9
6.9
6.1
7.5
5.4
4.3
4.1
5.5
7.9
9.2
7.4
4.8
4.6
2.9
4.1
3.1
3.3
4.4
7.3
8.2
7
5.2
3.6
3
3.5
3.2
3.5
4.7
7.8
8.8
7.3
5.6
3.9
4
3.5
3.6
–0.8
–0.7
–0.7
–0.8
–0.5
–0.4
–0.4
–0.6
–0.1
...
–0.5
–0.4
–0.6
–0.7
–0.8
–0.2
–0.2
–0.2
–0.2
...
5.3
2.9
4.9
3.1
5.5
2.5
5.3
3.4
–0.3
–1.1
–0.2
–0.6
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa
Source: IMF (2012); WEO
Global FDI inflows (US$ bn), 2011
1,971
2,000
1,800
1,744
1,600
1,400
1,508.6
1,462
1,403
1,289.7
1,185
1,200
983
1,000
826
800
742
627
600
573
400
200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: UNCTAD (2011; 2012): FDI statistics; Global investment trends monitor
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
FDI inflows (% of world total), 2000—2011
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
Developing economies
Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics
2004
2005
2006
Transition economies
2007
2008
2009
Developed economies
2010
2011
FDI inflows (% of world total), 2000—2010
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2000
2001
Developed economies
2002
2003
Developing economies
Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics
2004
2005
Transition economies
2006
2007
2008
Developing economies: Africa
2009
2010
Africa excluding South Africa
FDI inflows (% of world total), 2000—2010
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
Major exporters of manufactured goods
Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Major exporters of primary commodities excluding fuels
2010
SA FDI inflows (US$ m), 2011
10,000
9,006
8,000
6,000
5,695
5,365
4,500
4,000
2,000
1,200
2006
(527)
(2,000)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Leading FDI transactions (Q1:2011)
Value
Acquired company
(US$ m)
25 056 GDF Suez Energy
AXA Asia Pacific Holdings
7 057
Ltd
AXA Asia Pacific Holdings
6 041
Ltd
5 629 Bank Zachodni WBK SA
4 948 Vale SA
AIG Star Life Insurance Co
4 800
Ltd
4 750
4 546
3 895
3 832
3 800
3 800
3 549
Industry of acquired
company
Natural gas transmission
Belgium
Ultimate acquiring
company
GDF Suez SA
Ultimate
acquiring nation
France
Life insurance
Australia
AMP Ltd
Australia
Life insurance
Australia
AMP Ltd
Australia
Banks
Iron ores
Poland
Brazil
Banco Santander SA
Norsk Hydro ASA
Spain
Norway
Life insurance
Japan
Prudential Financial Inc
United States
United States
BHP Billiton Ltd
Australia
Crude petroleum and
natural gas
Automobiles and other
Porsche Holding GmbH
motor vehicles
Baldor Electric Co
Motors and generators
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Banks
Universal Studios Holding III Television broadcasting
Corp
stations
OAO "Vimm-Bill'-Dann
Fluid milk
Produkty Pitaniya"
Services allied to motion
EMI Group PLC
picture production
Chesapeake Energy Corp.
Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor
Host country
United States
Turkey
Porsche Automobil
Holding SE
ABB Ltd
BBVA
United States
GE
United States
Russian
Federation
PepsiCo Inc
United States
United Kingdom
CitiGroup Inc
United States
Austria
Germany
Switzerland
Spain
Leading FDI transactions (Q2:2011)
Value
(US$ m)
7 800
7 359 Equinox Minerals Ltd
Industry of acquired
Host country
company
Telephone
Italy
communications,
except radiotelephone
Biological products, except
United States
diagnostic substances
Land subdividers and
United States
developers, except
cemeteries
Offices of bank holding
United States
companies
Copper ores
Australia
7 306 Pride International Inc
Drilling oil and gas wells
United States
Ensco PLC
United Kingdom
7 206 Danisco A/S
Food preparations
Denmark
DuPont
United States
6 505 Central Networks PLC
Electric services
United Kingdom
PPL Corp
United States
6 300 Chrysler Financial Corp
Personal credit institutions United States
Radiotelephone
Brazil
communications
Acquired company
Weather Investments Srl
22 382
21 230
Genzyme Corp
Centro Properties Group
9 400
Morgan Stanley
5 524
Vivo Participacoes SA
Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor
Ultimate acquiring
company
Ultimate
acquiring nation
VimpelCom Ltd
Netherlands
Sanofi-Aventis SA
France
Blackstone Group LP
United States
Mitsubishi UFJ Finl Grp
Inc
Barrick Gold Corp
Japan
Canada
Toronto-Dominion Bank Canada
Telefonica SA
Spain
Leading FDI transactions (Q2:2011 – cont’d)
Value
(US$ m)
4 925
4 356
4 000
3 908
3 842
3 560
Acquired company
Industry of acquired
company
Industrial organic
chemicals
Host country
Shell International Petroleum
Brazil
Co Ltd
Consolidated Thompson Iron
Iron ores
Canada
Mines Ltd
Crude petroleum and
Russian
OAO "Novatek"
natural
Federation
gas
Bituminous coal and lignite
Riversdale Mining Ltd
Australia
surface mining
Perfumes, cosmetics, and
Alberto-Culver Co
United States
other toilet preparations
Talecris Biotherapeutics
Pharmaceutical
United States
Holdings Corp
preparations
Cosan Ltd
Ultimate
acquiring nation
Brazil
Cliffs Natural Resources
United States
Inc
Total SA
France
Rio Tinto PLC
United Kingdom
Unilever PLC
United Kingdom
Grifols SA
Spain
Investor Group
Singapore
3 500 Frac Tech Holdings LLC
Oil and gas field services
3 400 Securitas Direct AB
Security systems services Sweden
Investor Group
United States
Atria Senior Living Group
Inc.
Skilled nursing care
facilities
United States
Ventas Inc
United States
Peregrino Project,Campos
Basin
Crude petroleum and
natural
gas
Brazil
Sinochem Group
China
3 117
3 070
Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor
United States
Ultimate acquiring
company
Leading FDI transactions (Q3:2011)
Value
(US$ m)
Acquired company
Nycomed International
Management GmbH
13 683
Industry of acquired
company
Pharmaceutical
preparations
Host country
Switzerland
Ultimate acquiring
company
Takeda Pharmaceutical
Co
Ltd
Ultimate acquiring
nation
Japan
Petrohawk Energy Corp
Crude petroleum and
natural gas
United States
BHP Billiton Ltd
Australia
Reliance Industries Ltd
Crude petroleum and
natural gas
India
BP PLC
United Kingdom
OAO "Polyus Zoloto"
Gold ores
Russian
Federation
Polyus Zoloto
Russian Federation
Crude petroleum and
natural gas
Spain
IPIC
United Arab
Emirates
Germany
Rolls-Royce Group plc
United Kingdom
France
Solvay SA
Belgium
United States
Italy
Canada
France
France
Bank of Montreal
Investor Group
Thermo Fisher Scientific
Inc
GE
Spain
Shareholders
France
France
Investor Group
United States
11 776
9 000
6 256
Cia Espanola de Petroleos
4 964 SA {CEPSA}
4 723
Tognum AG
Rhodia SA
4 640
4 095 Marshall & Ilsley Corp.
3 599 Parmalat SpA
Internal combustion
engines
Manmade organic fibers,
except cellulosic
National commercial banks
Fluid milk
Surgical and medical
instruments and apparatus
Motors and generators
Phadia AB
3 540
3 200 Converteam Group SAS
Distribuidora Internacional de
Grocery stores
3 140 Alimentacion SA{Dia}
3 033 SPIE SA
Engineering services
Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor
Sweden
United States
United States
Leading FDI transactions (Q4:2011)
Value
Acquired company
(US$ m)
10 793 Foster's Group Ltd
8 500 Skype Global Sarl
6 611
6 311
5 499
5 390
5 139
Polkomtel SA
Cephalon Inc
OAO "Polimetall"
Anglo American Sur SA
Kinetic Concepts Inc
4 949 Macarthur Coal Ltd
4 542
Ultimate acquiring
company
SABMiller PLC
Microsoft Corp
Ultimate acquiring
nation
United Kingdom
United States
Poland
Metelem Holding Ltd
Cyprus
Russian
Federation
Teva Pharmaceutical
Industries
Polymetal International
Plc
Chile
Mitsubishi Corp
Japan
Surgical and medical
United States
instruments and apparatus
Chiron Holdings Inc
United Kingdom
Coal mining services
Australia
Peabody Energy Corp
United States
Gold ores
Copper ores
United States
Israel
Jersey
India
Volcan Investments Ltd
United Kingdom
Germany
Liberty Global Inc
United States
Russian
Federation
UCL Holding BV
Netherlands
Northumbrian Water Group
PLC
Water supply
United Kingdom
Hutchison Whampoa Ltd Hong Kong, China
ING Groep NV
Insurance agents, brokers,
Mexico
and service
Grupo Sura
Colombia
Electric services
China Investment Corp
China
4 495 OAO "Pervaya Gruzovaya
4 223 Kompaniya"
3 614
Host country
Australia
Luxembourg
Crude petroleum and
natural gas
Cable and other pay
television services
Railroads, line-haul
operating
Cairn India Ltd
Musketeer GmbH
3 837
Industry of acquired
company
Malt beverages
Prepackaged Software
Radiotelephone
communications
Pharmaceutical
preparations
3 259 GDF Suez SA
France
Telephone communications,
Global Crossing Ltd
Bermuda
except radiotelephone
3 017
Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor
Level 3 Communications
Inc
United States
FDI into South Africa, KwaZulu-Natal
South Africa
Capex (USD m)
KwaZulu-Natal
Year
Projects
Jobs
2012
16
59.0
630
2011
175
12,770.2
22,950
11 (6.3)
1,525 (11.9)
1,300 (5.7)
2010
104
6,805.3
17,685
3 (2.9)
143 (2.1)
800 (4.5)
2009
116
7,695.1
22,883
6 (5.2)
106 (1.4)
4,527 (19.8)
2008
125
13,533.3
26,990
10 (8.0)
2,192 (16.2)
1,674 (6.2)
2007
58
5,260.9
8,754
2 (3.4)
812 (15.4)
259 (3.0)
2006
90
5,084.6
15,365
6 (6.7)
174 (3.4)
399 (2.6)
2005
63
3,760.5
17,075
2004
52
4,309.9
8,778
2003
60
4,502.6
16,867
Total
859
63,781.4
157,977
38
4,954
8,959
Notes:
1) © fDi Intelligence, from the Financial Times Ltd 2012. Data subject to
terms and conditions of use
FDI outflows (% of world total), 2000—2010
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-10.0%
Developed economies
Developing economies: Africa
Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics
Developing economies
Africa excluding South Africa
Transition economies
2010
SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: total (constant 2005 prices ; saa)
25%
21%
20%
17%
15%
13%
9%
10%
5%
3%
2%
2%
Q1
Q2
Q3
5%
5%
6%
4%
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
0%
Q1
-5%
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008
Q2
Q3
2009
-10%
-11%
-15%
-14%
-14%
Q4
-3%
2010
2011
SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: sectoral (constant 2005 prices ; saa)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Q1
-20%
Q2
Q3
2008
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
2011
-40%
-60%
Utilities
Mining & quarrying
Logistics
Comm serv
Q2
FREBS
Manuf
Q3
SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: source (constant 2005 prices ; saa)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
-20%
-40%
Gen govt
Q3
Public corp's
Pvt business
Q4
Q1
Q2
2011
Q3
SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: asset type (constant 2005 prices ; saa)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Q1
-20%
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010
Q1
Q2
2011
-40%
-60%
-80%
Res buildings
Non-residential buildings
Constr works
Trand equip
Mach & other equip
Transfer costs
Q3
KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Investment Monitor: Nov 2011 (saa)
Main and sub indices of the
Kwa-Zulu Investment Monitor
Transport Equipment
Buildings
Civil Construction
Machinery
ICT Equipment
Transfers
Total Investment Index
% Change on a year % Change from a
ago
quarter ago
42.8%
-10.1%
13.0%
20.6%
21.3%
-4.0%
16.5%
-1.7%
5.2%
12.1%
14.0%
2.4%
3.3%
10.0%
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
100
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
TRANSPORT INDEX
130
120
110
Transport
90
80
70
60
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
BUILDING INDEX
120
110
100
90
Building
80
70
60
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
CIVIL INDEX
120
110
100
90
80
Civil
70
60
50
40
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
MACHINERY INDEX
200
180
160
140
120
Machinery
100
80
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
ICT INDEX
140
130
120
110
ICT
100
90
80
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
TRANSFERS INDEX
120
110
100
90
80
70
Transfers
60
50
40
30
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
110
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
TOTAL INVESTMENT INDEX
140
135
130
125
120
115
Total KZN Investment
105
100
95
90
Conclusion
• Global economy still fragile (DCs sneeze, EECs
catch a cold)
– Why? Contagion effect (disorderly default, bank runs, runs
spread, ECB powerless, German revolt, fin sys collapse, spreads
globally, regression) ≈ 25%
– 75%? (Euro survives, fiscal union, haircuts, rescue funds {ECB
supports banks & IMF joins in}, BRICKS contribute, slow growth
in US & Europe 10-15yrs 0-0.5% p.a.
• Investments growing, though sluggish
• The good? Emergence of new markets
Now what? KZN within SA, SA within Africa, world?
• Keep eyes on the ball
• Start the party (encourage domestic investment)
• Diversify for increased resilience (new products and
opportunities) – eyes on Africa, don’t miss the boat;
financial sector spearheading venture
• Improve investment climate (maintain and/or improve
efficiency and competitiveness)
TIKZN Contact Details
Durban:
Trade and Investment House
Kingsmead Office Park
Kingsmead Boulevard
Stalwart Simelane Road
Durban, 4000
Gauteng:
Financial Place
99 George Storrar Avenue
Groenkloof
Pretoria
0181
Tel: +27 (0) 31 368 9600
Tel: +27 (0) 12 346 4386
www.tikzn.co.za

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