A summary and update

Report
Dr. Steven Koonin: “EnErgy
TrEnds and TEchnologiEs”
Matthew Nichols
April 25, 2012
Physics H190
The Mysterious Steven Koonin
• Born in Brooklyn, NY
• B.S. in physics from Caltech (1972)
• PhD in theoretical physics from MIT
(1975)
• Professor at Caltech (1975-2004)
• Studied theoretical nuclear many body
physics and computational physics
• Was chief scientist at BP: responsible
for BPs long range technology plans
Energy Trends and Technologies
• It’s not just about new technology
• Energy so pervasive in society that several
factors must be considered including the
economics, politics, and cultural context
• Once these factors are considered, then one
can talk about the technology
Drivers of the Energy Future
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanization
Demand Growth
Supply Challenges
• Significant resources
• Non-conventionals
Technology and
policy
• Local pollution
• Climate change
Environmental Impacts
Security
of Supply
• Dislocation of resources
• Import dependence
Growth in Energy Demand Due to
Economic Activity
400
US
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)
350
300
Australia
250
Russia
France
200
S. Korea
150
100
Malaysia
50
China
0
India
0
Mexico
Japan
UK
Ireland
Greece
Brazil
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
30,000
35,000
40,000
Energy Demand Breakdown vs. Time
BNBOE=Billion
Barrels of Oil
130
Equivalent
Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030)
120
110
100
90
Energy Demand (bnboe)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1 BNBOE =
6.11x1018 Joules
0
1971
Key:
2002
- transport
Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants
2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service
- power
2030
- industry
- other sectors
Source: IEA WEO 2004
Energy Supply
• There are significant resources in the ground
• The world is not running out of energy any
time soon
• However, a rise in unconventional sources of
energy is expected
Sources of Energy in the US since 1850
100%
90%
80%
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Coal
Wood
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1850
1880
1910
1940
1970
2000
Source: EIA
Sources of Energy: Global Scale
50%
Nuclear
Hydro
6.3%
6.0%
40%
36.4%
Coal
Oil
45%
Oil
35%
Coal
30%
27.8%
25%
Gas
20%
23.5%
Natural gas
15%
10%
5%
0%
Hydro
Nuclear
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Projection of Primary Energy Sources
’04 – ’30 Annual Growth
Rate (%)
M toe
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
Other
Renew ables
6.5
Biomass &
w aste
1.3
Hydro
2.0
Nuclear
0.7
Gas
2.0
Oil
1.3
Coal
1.8
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1980
2004
2010
2015
2030
Note: ‘Other renewables’ include geothermal, solar, wind,
tide and wave energy for electricity generation
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case)
Fossil Fuel Supply
6,000
Yet to Find
Reserves & Resources (bnboe)
5,000
4,000
3,000
Unconventional
Unconventional
R/P Ratio
164 yrs.
2,000
1,000
R/P Ratio
67 yrs.
R/P Ratio
41 yrs.
0
Oil
Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates
Gas
Coal
How Much Oil is Available and at What
Price?
Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price
Source: IEA (2005)
Security of Supply
• There is a dislocation of resources around the
globe: the oil and gas are in the ground not
where the main consumers of the product are
• Thus the dislocation leads to necessary trade,
and a reliance by the consuming countries on
the stability and security of distant oil/gas
sources
Dislocation of Fossil Fuel Sources from
their Consumers
3 Largets Energy M arkets
(N.America + Europe + Asia Pacific)
ROW
12%
22%
35%
39%
85%
90%
88%
78%
65%
61%
15%
10%
Consumption
Reserves
OIL
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006
Consumption
GAS
Reserves
Consumption
Reserves
COAL
ROW = Rest of World
Conclusions about Energy Supply
Dislocation
• The oil is where the people ARE NOT and the
coal is where the people ARE
• As countries become increasingly concerned
about supply issues, they will turn increasingly
to coal (e.g. China and partially the U.S.)
Environmental Impacts: Local Pollution
and Climate Change
• Local pollution is not so problematic: the technology exists
and is available at cost
• He gives LA as an example, how the local pollution has
improved over the past few years
• As countries/governments get more concerned they will be
more willing to invest in the available technology to remove
the local pollution.
• Climate change is more problematic
• Evidence implies CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil
fuel use (concentration increases by ~2 PPM a year)
• Many say that 2X the pre industrial level of CO2 (550 ppm)
is a widely discussed stabilization target (beyond which it
will exert a dangerous influence on the climate system
Things to Know About CO2 In the
Atmosphere in Order to Solve Problem
Emissions
•
•
•
•
•
Concentration
The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 1000 years
About half of what we put up there stays up there
A bend in the emissions graph will just delay the time that we cross the dangerous CO2 level threshold
Rule of thumb: every 10 percent reduction in emissions buys you about 7 years before reaching the max
We need to reduce emissions by a factor of two from current levels to remain stable at the 550 ppm level, and this in
the face of doubling the demand of energy by the middle of the century, so we need to cut the common intensity of our
energy system by a factor of four
Social Barriers to Emission Reductions
•
•
•
•
•
Climate threat is intangible and diffuse; can be obscured by
natural variability
– It’s difficult to attribute things to climate change
phenomena. It’s hard to make the climate change
discussion real for people
– contrast ozone, air pollution
Energy is at the heart of economic activity
CO2 timescales are poorly matched to the political process
– Buildup and lifetime are centennial scale
– Energy infrastructure takes decades to replace
• Power plants being planned now will be emitting in
2050
• Autos last 20 years; buildings 100 years
– Political cycle is ~6 years; news cycle ~1 day
There will be inevitable distractions
– a few years of cooling
– economic downturns
– unforeseen expenses (e.g., Iraq, tsunamis, …)
Emissions, economics, and the priority of the threat vary
greatly around the world
Emissions Facts
•
21st Century emissions from the Developing World (DW) will be more important than those from the
Industrialized World (IW)
– DW emissions growing at 2.8% vs. IW growing at 1.2%
– DW will surpass IW during 2015 - 2025
DW
E
IW
•
•
t
Sobering facts
– When DW ~ IW, each 10% reduction in IW emissions is compensated by < 4 years of DW
growth
– If China’s (or India’s) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global emissions would be
40% higher
Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology development will play a
central role
Emissions By Source (2000)
Note: land use means
deforestation and the
like.
•
Land use and
agriculture are
major
contributors:
there are large
portions of the
emissions
spectrum that
are unregulated
and need work!
Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version 3.0
Technologies and Policies
• There are 4 aspects of energy technologies that make them different:
1) Scale:
-Large infrastructure, amounts of material, and numbers of units (more cars
will be built in the next 20 years than were built in the whole 20th century).
-Requires large capital and leverage of existing infrastructure.
-This is one reason way large companies should be involved in the
innovation chain early on.
2) Ubiquity of energy:
-There are many players with sometimes divergent interests (consumers,
suppliers, governments, NGOs, etc…)
3) Longevity:
-Lifetimes of large equipment and/or interoperability imply slow changes
(e.g. BP can’t just change its fuel because it must work with older cars too)
4) Incumbency:
-New energy technologies must compete in cost.
-They may not provide any qualitatively new service to the end user
Energy Technologies: Examples
Primary Energy Sources:
Extraction & Conversion Technologies:
End Use Technologies:
•Light Crude
•Heavy Oil
•Tar Sands
•Wet gas
•CBM
•Tight gas
•Nuclear
•Coal
•Solar
•Wind
•Biomass
•Hydro
•Geothermal
•Exploration
•Deeper water
•Arctic
•LNG
•Refining
•Differentiated fuels
•Advantaged chemicals
•Gasification
•Syngas conversion
•Power generation
• Photovoltaics
•Bio-enzyimatics
•H2 production & distribution
•CO2 capture & storage
•ICEs
•Adv. Batteries
•Hybridisation
•Fuel cells
•Hydrogen storage
•Gas turbines
•Building efficiency
•Urban infrastructure
•Systems design
• Other efficiency technologies
•Appliances
•Retail technologies
There are no “silver bullets”
•
But some have a larger calibre than others !
We have about 30-40 years to deal with these problems so we have to find
those technologies which will have the biggest impact at the lowest cost
How Do We Assess Energy
Technologies?
•
•
Current technology status and plausible technical headroom: wind mills have
been around for millennia, and there will be incremental improvements, but
compare to other improvements in biological technologies
Budgets:
– Economic (cost relative to other options)
– Energy (output how many times greater than input)
– Emissions (pollution and CO2; operations and capital)
•
•
•
Materiality (at least 1TW = 5% of 2050 BAU energy demand: technology has to
scale)
Other costs - reliability, intermittency etc.
Social and political acceptability
we also must know what problem we are trying to solve!
Problems to Solve
• There are 2 problems that technology plays into
1) Concern over future availability/cost of oil and gas
2) Concern relating to threat of climate change
• It’s really hard to beat liquid hydrocarbons
• Gasoline has a lot more energy per unit mass than
liquid H2 or compressed gas
• With small weight and small space, liquid hydrocarbons
are likely to stay around for a while
• For liquid hydrocarbons, the real issue is where you get
your carbon from
Fossil
So
W
oo y
dp
ulp
W
Ed
he
ib
at
le
fa
ts
M
ea /o ils
t /P
ou
l tr
y
Bi
Co
om
t
as ton
Bi
om
s
as tod
ay
sp
ot
en
tia
l
200
Co
rn
Pa
pe
r
700
Ls
Fuel
NG
as
ol
ine
Di
es
el
Na Coa
tu
l
O
ra
th
lg
er
as
pe
tro
leu
m
G
Annual US Carbon (Mt C)
So Where Does the U.S. Get Its Carbon
From?
Agriculture
Biomass
1000
600
500
400
300
15% of Transportation
Fuels
100
0
Where Does the World Get Its
Electricity From? (2004)
Oil
6.67%
Nuclear
15.74%
Hydro
16.14%
Biomass
1.30%
Gas
19.60%
Other
2.13%
Wind
0.47%
Geothermal
0.32%
Coal
39.73%
Source: IEA WEO 2006
Tidal/Wave
0.01%
Solar
0.02%
Electricity Cost vs. CO2 Cost
160
Conventional
Coal
140
Solar PV
~$250
Cost of Electricity
($/MW-hr)
120
Area where options
multiply
100
Natural Gas
($5/MMBTU)
80
CCS
Onshore Wind
60
Nuclear
40
$0.35/gal or $0.09/litre
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
CO2 Cost ($/tonne)
Source: IEA Technology Perspectives 2006, IEA WEO 2006 and BAH analysis
Notes: 1) Add solar 2) $40/tonne CO2 cost or tax is $0.35/gallon of gasoline or $0.09 (or 5p)/litre
100
120
Efficiency vs. Conservation
• Efficiency and conservation are NOT the same thing
• Ex 1) when steam engines became more efficient, the amount of
coal used did not decrease, but actually increased because people
used it in more and different ways
• Ex 2) supply limited situations: right now there is not enough
electricity in china to meet the demand for air conditioning. If we
make air conditioners more efficient we will keep more Chinese
cool, but will not reduce the demand for energy because it is a
supply limited situation
• The surest way to induce conservation is to either increase the price
or to enact some sort of policy. But either is politically difficult for a
government to do and remain in power
Likely 30 Year Energy Future
• Hydrocarbons will continue to dominate transportation (high energy
density)
-conventional crude/heavy oils/CTL ensure continuity of supply at
reasonable cost
• Vehicle efficiency can be at least doubled (hybrids, plug in hybrids, HCCI,
diesel)
• In the power sector coal (security) and gas (cleanliness) will continue to
dominate heat and power
-nuclear energy (security,CO2) will be a fixed, if not growing,
fraction of the mix
-renewables will find some application but will remain a small
fraction of the total
-advanced solar a wildcard
• Demand reduction will happen where economically effective or via policy
• CO2 emissions (and concentrations) continue to rise absent dramatic
global action
Necessary Steps for the Technology
• We need technically informed, coherent, and stable government
policies
-educated decision makers and an educated public
• For short/mid term technologies, we should avoid winners/losers
-a level playing field for all applicable technologies
-emissions trading
• For long term technologies, we need support for pre-competitive
research like fission, PV, biofuels, etc…
• Business needs reasonable expectation of carbon price
• Universities/labs must recognize and act on importance of energy
research (technology and policy)
• Need business to get involved in this research in the next several
decades since business like it or not is the way to get things done
Acknowledgements
• 2008 Regent’s Lecture: Steve Koonin “Energy
Trends and Technologies”
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mu27nT3
ZTdQ
• Georgia Tech Distinguished Lecture: Steve
Koonin “Energy Trends and Technologies for
the Coming Decades”

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