Mr. Hassan Harajli`s presentation

Report
Hassan Harajli
UNDP CEDRO Project
EcOrient - June 7th 2012
Table of Contents
What has been done and/or assessed by CEDRO


Mapping renewables through CEDRO
Was it enough and/or will it last;


The legacy of CEDRO
What should be done next?

2
1- Assessment of Large-scale RE Sources;
Wind
Solar
Hydro
The main options?
3
Bioenergy
Geothermal
1- WIND: Onshore and Offshore
4
Onshore WIND Prospects
When all areas where wind farms cannot be developed are removed;







High population density
Military areas
Commercial interests (e.g. mining / fishing…
Civilian aviation sites
National parks and forests
Historic sites …
Where wind speeds are greater than 6.5 m/s (@80 m hub height)
Assuming an installation density of 8 MW/km2


Results;



6
Mean 6.1 GW
Maximum 12 GW
Min 1.5 GW
Economics of wind
Av. LC (5% DR)
Av. LC (10% DR) DR)
Benefits of wind power integration as factor of discount rate, fuel prices, and the social cost of
carbon
7
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

CEDRO has completed a
concise update on CSP
technology. The document
can be downloaded soon from
CEDRO’s website
Proper
solar
resource
assessment
is
being
undertaken by RECREE
(SolarMed) project for the
region

8
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
Direct Normal Irradiance
The higher the Direct Normal
Irradiance (DNI), the more
power
is
generated
by
a
particular technology
Technical feasibility limit: 1800 kWh/m2/y
Economic feasibility limit: 2000 kWh/m2/y
9
Solar CSP in Lebanon
Slope
+
Water
+
DNI
Potential is there, therefore CSP is a matter of financial viability!
11
LEC: levelised electricity costs (solar-only)
CR - 20 MW + 0.5 h storage (As PS-20)
- DAGGET
CR - 20 MW + 0.5 h storage (As PS-20)
- HERMEL
C entral R ec eiv er
WIT H 15 h S torag e
CR - 20 MW + 0.5 h storage (As PS-20)
- SEVILLE
CR - 20 MW + 15 h storage (As
GEMASOLAR) - DAGGET
CR - 20 MW + 15 h storage (As
GEMASOLAR) - HERMEL
P arabolic T roug h
without S torag e
CR - 20 MW + 15 h storage (As
GEMASOLAR) - SEVILLE
PT - 50 MW + NO storage (As SEGS) DAGGET
PT - 50 MW + NO storage (As SEGS) HERMEL
P arabolic T roug h
WIT H 7.5 h S torag e
PT - 50 MW + NO storage (as SEGS) SEVILLE
PT - 50 MW + 7.5 h storage (As
ANDASOL) - DAGGET
0.300
PT - 50 MW + 7.5 h storage (As
ANDASOL) - HERMEL
PT - 50 MW + 7.5 h storage (As
ANDASOL) - SEVILLE
€/kWh
Levelized Electricity Costs
C entral R ec eiv er
~without S torag e
0.250
0.200
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.000
LEC: levelised electricity costs (15% HYBRID)
PV Farms
Techno-economic study underway for PV farms in Lebanon
(CEDRO) – expected publication date (August 2012)

Constraints;

Area; it’s estimated that (mean) 6.4 acres (25,900 m2) are
required to generate 1 megawatt of electricity using PV
panels. This equates to almost five football fields of area per
megawatt of electricity generated (NREL).

Costs: Approximate $2,000,000/MW (Turnkey) excluding land
rent (land rent = $5/m2 & 2.5% of capital cost for O&M).

12
Expected; Levelised cost = $c24 – 26/kWh
Hydro-power from non-river sources

CEDRO is undertaking an assessment of hydro-power potential
from non-river sources;


Irrigation channels
Water distribution networks
Electrical power plants
Water treatment plants

To date;







13
0.73 MW from irrigation (yet data availability a problem)
0.992 MW from water distribution (data a problem)
5.26 MW from power plants
0.123 MW from WWTP (data also an issue as is the entire WWTP sector)
Total: 7.1 MW
TASK 1: Resource Assessment
Type
Residues from fellings
Residues of olive trees
Residues of fruit trees
Ranking
1
2
Residues of cereals
3
Energy crops
4
Cake by-products
5
Waste wood
6
Municipal sewage sludge
7
Animal fat
Slaughterhouse residues
8
Yellow grease
9
Landfill potential
10
Task 3. Future scenarios
Annual contribution of bioenergy to end-uses by year 2030
Energy use
Scenario I
Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV
Primary energy (GWh)
6953
2354
517
1543
Electricity (GWh)
934
475
73
261
Electricity (MWe)
119
62
9
33
% of total (4000 MW)
3%
1.5%
0.23%
0.8%
Heat (ktoe)
131
78
14
39
% of total (347 ktoe in 2006)
37.7%
22.5%
4%
11.2%
Transport (ktoe)
271
28
14
39
% of total (1511 ktoe in 2008)
18%
1.8%
1%
2.6%
Final Energy
Geothermal Power
TASKS
1 Geothermal Resource Assessment
2 Recoverable Resource Estimates
3 Required Drilling and Power
Producing Technologies and their
Economic Feasibility
4 Environmental Impacts of
Geothermal Power Production
5 Barriers to Geothermal Power
Development in Lebanon
April
2012
17
April 2013
Microgeneration
‘Micro-generation’ can be defined as the production of electricity or heat from a lowcarbon source, at capacities no more than 50kWe or 45kWth (UK definition).
Microwind
u-CHP (e.g. Fuel cells)
PV
SHW
ASHP
GSHP
18
Microgeneration
Microwind
• Very
location
specific
• 1 kWp; 2,5004,000 USD with
storage
• 10-20 years
PV
• Expensive
but
costs reducing
• 1 kWp; 5,0006,000 USD with
storage
• 20-30 years
SHW
• Most mature and
cost-effective
• 300 litres; 1200 –
1500 USD
• Payback period; 25 years
19
JEZZINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 3,000 Liters
HERMEL GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 4,000 Liters
TRIPOLI GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 12,000 Liters
SIBLINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters
Keserween Public Hospital - 6,000 Liters
SAIDA GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters (tanks)
Photovoltaic system in Hosh-Oumara Community Center (Bekaa)
UNDP-CEDRO
26
Khfour Public School (South) – 2 kWp
The CEDRO Legacy
The importance of stirring the local market
CEDRO IMPACT
(9.73 million USD)
The commercial maturity of new and renewable energy technologies relative
to market penetration (Foxon et al. 2005)
30
The CEDRO Impact; Market Creation and Employment
Expression of Interest (EOI);
Lots (e.g.);
30
25
1- PV
2- SHW
3- Energy efficiency
20
15
PV
SHW
10
2008;
PV; 10 firms applied, 7 passed
SHW; 11 firms applied, 9 passed
EE; 3 firms applied,3 passed
EE
5
EE
SHW
0
Applied
Passed
2008
PV
Applied
Passed
2010
2010;
PV; 27 firms applied, 13 passed
SHW; 23 firms applied, 14 passed
EE; 19 firms applied,7 passed
(+ additional microwind Lot where 23 applied and 11 passed)
Each of these companies employs
between 15 – 50 + persons.
31
The CEDRO Legacy
In brief;
• CEDRO assisted in creating technical capacity building
and initiated markets for small-scale renewable energy,
esp. photovoltaic systems and commercial SHW
systems
• Shed light onto the renewable energy resources of the
country, esp. wind, biomass, and geothermal.
• Created opportunities for local contractors and
consultants,
• Pushed forward the RE agenda by assisting in
influencing policies like net metering and how it can be
applied technically
• Focused on awareness on RE for the young generation
• Hopefully an overhauled and informative website 
32
What should be done next – small scale?
• Other technologies require market initiation, esp.
bioenergy demonstration projects.
• Most importantly, market development policies are
required… BACK TO THE S-Curve;
– If the government of Lebanon does not introduce
bold measures to financially support renewables,
CEDRO’s work (and others like it) will go to waste!
– Feed-in tariffs, even in a reduced form, must be
assessed and introduced intelligently to take into
account the current financial situation of the country,
and how to subsidize this support while ensuring its’
33
effectiveness.
What should be done next – large scale?
For large-scale renewable;
– Assessment of integration
and control into the
national grid
– National
Regulatory
Authority or its alternative
(NRA) – and capacity
building for this Authority
in licensing PPA
– We can’t wait 3 years after
NRA is established!!!
34
Thank you
Please contact CEDRO at:
T/F: +961-1-981944
E: [email protected]
www.cedro-undp.org
Beirut, Maarad Street,
Building 287B, 1st floor
CEDRO_UNDP

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