Determining Capable Production Processes for New Product Ramp

Report
Determining
Capable Production Processes
for New Product Ramp-up
using Semantic Web Technologies
Stefan Biffl1, Estefania Serral2,
Roland Willmann3
Vienna University of Technology
Institute of Computer Aided Automation
3Institute of Software-Technology and Interactive Systems
1Christian Doppler Laboratory „Software Engineering Integration for Flexible Automation Systems“
KU Leuven
2Department
of Decision Sciences and Information Management
Outline
 Motivation and Problem Statement
 State of the Art and Research Approach
 Cake Baking - The Reference Use Case
 Knowledge based Ramp-up of Products (K-RAMP)
 Conclusions and Next Steps
Outline
 Motivation and Problem Statement
 State of the Art and Research Approach
 Cake Baking - The Reference Use Case
 Knowledge based Ramp-up of Products (K-RAMP)
 Conclusions and Next Steps
Scope of Work
Product Ramp-up
Discrete Production
Remote Capacity Ramp-up
Motivation
Yield
Product Ramp-up
Costs
Duration
Quality
 Difficult to Predict
 Weak Knowledge
Exchange
Time to Volume
Volume
on Market
Time to Market
First Part
on Market
Time
 Fails of ~50% of
all Enterprises
 Ramp-up Project
Motivation
Knowledge Based Ramp-Up of Products
Product Ramp-up
K-RAMP
Determine Reusable (Semi-Finished) Products and
Process Segments at Target Production System
Derive New Process Setup
From Existing Process Setup
Recommend Results
 Weak Knowledge
Exchange
For Process Qualification at Target Production System
K-RAMP Shall Actively Drive
the Ramp-Up of a New Product
 Ramp-up Project
Process
Reuse of Existing Knowledge – Trial 1
Unable to Reuse Existing Knowledge
?
Delicious
Chocolate Gloss!
How do you make it?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Temperature 4 to 5 on the hotplate
Put water pot on hotplate
Wait 15 minutes
Put pot with chocolate in the water pot
Whipping for 5 minutes
…
Reuse of Existing Knowledge – Trial 2
Knowledge For Making a Hot Water-Bath
Exists And Can Be Reused
Ahh – a hot water-bath
That is clear
1.
2.
3.
Delicious
Chocolate Gloss!
How do you make it?
Make a hot water-bath
Whipping the chocolate in the hot water-bath until
chocolate is liquid
…
Outline
 Motivation and Problem Statement
 State of the Art and Research Approach
 Cake Baking - The Reference Use Case
 Knowledge based Ramp-up of Products (K-RAMP)
 Conclusions and Next Steps
Challenge of New Product Ramp-up
 The Situation in Discrete Production of Many Industries is
Similar But More Complex
 Inter-disciplinary Ramp-up Team
– Product, Process, Equipment, Quality Engineering
– Line Management, Corporate Management
 Ramp-up Teams Deal With Existing Knowledge For Reuse
– Existing Semi-Finished Products (or Consumables)
– Existing Processes Which Create Similar Semi-Finished Products
– Development and Qualification of New Processes or New Machines
 Knowledge Exchange Among Team-Members is Critical
 Ramp-Up Not Actively Supported by Software-Tools
Challenges of K-RAMP
 Common Generic Concept of Knowledge
– Common Structure of Knowledge at Source and Target Production
System
– Generic, Independent of Specific Processes and Production Systems
 Integration of Product and Process Knowledge
with Quality Measurements of Target Production System
– Data Volume
– Linking Semantic Knowledge and Quality Measurements
– Valuable History of Quality Data
 Searching Within Quality Data for Opportunities for Reuse
– Dynamic Setup of Data-Mining Based on Product Specification
 Calculation of Performance Indicators for Validation of
Recommendations
– Dynamic Setup of Calculations Based on Product Specification
Approach
 Proof of Concept
– Reference Product and Process
(Transfer of Baking a Chocolate Cake)
– Simulated Quality Measurements
 Interactive Tools for Planning, Specification and Verification
–
–
–
–
Enterprise Architect – Planning
Protégé 4.3 – Knowledge Base and Reasoning (Pellet)
Magnum Opus, Version 4.6.3 – Association Rule Mining
MiniTab 17 – Calculation of Performance Indicators
 Manual Execution of the Process
 Validation of Results with Respect to Reusability
 Iterative Improvement of Knowledge Base and Reasoning
Example Use Case –
Knowledge Transfer Between Bakeries
Initial State
Product
Structure and
Specifications
of
Product To Transfer
Resulting State
Structure and
Specifications
of
Existing Products
Structure and
Specification
of Existing Products and
Transferred Product
K-RAMP
Process
Process Setup
Quality Data
of
Product To Transfer
Original Bakery
Process Setup
Quality Data
of
Existing Baking
Processes
Process Setup
Quality Data
of
Existing and new
Baking Processes
Target Bakery
K-RAMP Partial Models
Characteristics
Product
:Characteristic
:Specification
:SpecificationRange
:PhysicalUnit
:ProductClass
:Product
:ProducedPart
:QualificationState
Process
:ProcessClass
:ProcessSegment
:ProcessJob
:ProcessSetup
QualityControl
:AssociationSearchSetup
:AssociationRule
:AggregationFunction
:CapabilityIndex
Specialization of K-RAMP
K-RAMP
General Model
General Conceptual and
Instance Models
Baking
Branch-Specific Model
Common Product Classes,
Specifications,
Characteristics, Process
Classes
Location-Specific Models
Individual Process Segments,
Products, Produced Parts and
their Measurements
Source-Bakery
Target-Bakery
Outline
 Motivation and Problem Statement
 State of the Art and Research Approach
 Cake Baking - The Reference Use Case
 Knowledge based Ramp-up of Products (K-RAMP)
 Conclusions and Next Steps
Transfer of Chokolate Cake Baking
Product Class / Products  Requirements
How Shall the Product Function?
Requirement-1: Reflective, Dark Brown, Crispy
Chocolate Surface With Bitter-Sweet Taste
Requirement-2: Soft, Succulent, Dark Brown,
Fruity Apricot-Chocolate Taste
Product Classes support
Requirements
Variation of
Satisfaction of Requirements
due to
Individual Specifications of
Products
Transfer of Chokolate Cake Baking
Product Specification  Requirements
Is There Already a
Product of Type “Gloss”
IsWhich
ThereMeets
Already a
Product
Class
Product of Type
“Gloss”
Specification
Ranges
Specification
to be Adjusted in Order
Viscosity: …
Flow Value: … to Meet
Specification Ranges
How Shall the Product Function?
Requirement-1.1: Dark brown Chocolate
Surface With Bitter-Sweet Taste
Requirement-1.2: Reflective surface
Requirement-1.3: Crispy surface
Requirement
Specification
Reflectivity: …
Uniformity: …
Transfer of Chokolate Cake Baking
Process Specification  Product Specification
Product Class
Specification
Viscosity: …
Flow Value: …
How Is the Product Created?
Is there a Process of Type
“Provide Gloss”
Is There
Process of Type
WhichaCreates
“Provide
Gloss”
“Gloss”
Within
Which Could
be Adjusted
Expected
Specification
InRanges
Order to Meet
Specified Ranges
Process-Class-1.1: Provide Bitter Chocolate
Process-Class-1.2: Provide Gloss
Process Setup
Water/Sugar Ratio: …
Temperature: …
Duration: …
Outline
 Motivation and Problem Statement
 State of the Art and Research Approach
 Cake Baking - The Reference Use Case
 Knowledge based Ramp-up of Products (K-RAMP)
 Conclusions and Next Steps
K-RAMP – Recommendation of
Preliminary Process Plan
Product
Hierarchy
Requirements
Process
Hierarchy
Chocolate
Cake
Chocolate
Cake
Provider
Chocolate
Cake
Chocolate
Sponge
Dough
Chocolate
Gloss
Chocolate
Gloss
Provider
Gloss
Coating
Chocolate
Gloss
Chocolate
Sponge Dough
Provider
Chocolate
Sponge
Dough
Chocolate
Gloss
requires
Bitter
Chocolate
Recommended
Process Plan for Target
Production System
Bitter
Chocolate
Provider
Chocolate
Gloss
Provider
Gloss
Provider
Chocolate
Sponge Dough
Provider
Bitter
Chocolate
Gloss
Bitter
Chocolate
Provider
Gloss
Provider
provides
Some Terminology of Quality Management
(Semi-Finished) Product is Qualified if FPY > Target
FirstPassYield  (1 
Count( AllParts)
) *100%
Count(GoodParts)
Specification Limits
Good Parts are All Parts Within the Requested
Specification Limits (Specification Range)
Population of 99.9989% within Specification Limits
is equivalent to
Process Capability Index (cpk) of 1.43 is equivalent
to Defective Parts 11.7 ppm
If Specification Range of Product-1 is Within the
Specification Range of Product-2
(LSL1  LSL2 and USL1  USL2)
Then All Good Parts of Product-1 Satisfy Product-2
Specification Range as Well
Is There Some Systematic Process Setup
to Achieve an Appropriate Yield
for Tighter Specification Limits of Product-1
(a New Product)
LSL2
LSL1
USL1
USL2
K-RAMP Process Overview
Reusable Existing
Semi-Finished Products
Recommend SemiFinished Product
yes
Recommend Process
Setup
no groups left
some groups left
no
Flag Produced Parts of
Super Class If Within
Specification Range
Clustering of Flagged
Produced Parts
no clusters
Recommend Need For
New Process
Development
Drop Groups Where
Yield Below Threshold
clusters
Gather Produced Parts
in Groups Based on
Clusters
Calculate Yield Per
Group With Respect to
New Product
Outline
 Motivation and Problem Statement
 State of the Art and Research Approach
 Cake Baking - The Reference Use Case
 Knowledge based Ramp-up of Products (K-RAMP)
 Conclusions and Next Steps
Conclusion
 Automated Determining of Reusable Products and
Processes Possible
 For Simple Use Cases
 External Applications Required (Rule Mining, Statistics)
 Hybrid Architecture
 OWL2 and SWRL Seems Not Sufficient for Reasoning
 JENA
 Rework of Ontology
Next Steps
 Addressing Reasoning for Closed-World Questions
– Non-Qualified-Product \ Qualified-Product
 Declaration of new Classes or Restrictions Through
Reasoning
– If there is an Association Rule X with hasContext {Y, Z}
then there is a Restriction X with onProperty hasContext
value {Y, Z}
 More Complex Use Cases
– Sequence of Production Process Segments
 Consideration of Regression Functions Between
Process Specification and Produced Parts’ Measurements
 Detailed Concept For User Interaction
http://www.informatik.tuwien.ac.at/english
Roland Willmann – [email protected]
K-RAMP
Find Produced Parts Within Specification Range
Initial Situation
Product Class Chocolate is Qualified at Target Bakery
Product Class Bitter Chocolate is Non-Qualified at Target Bakery
Bitter Chocolate Specification Range Tighter Than Chocolate’s
Produced Parts of Chocolate are Available
Assumption
Produced Parts Hold Values for Each Characteristic
A Subset of Produced Parts of Chocolate
are in Specification Ranges of Bitter Chocolate
Actions to be Performed
If There is Some Non-Qualified Product Class X And
There is Some Qualified Super-Class of X Then
Declare Restriction of Produced Part Instances Within
Specification Range of X.
K-RAMP
Find Systematic Process Setup
Initial Situation
Existing Produced Parts Within Specification Range of Bitter Chocolate
Assumption
Produced Parts Refer Process Setup
(a.k.a. Process Context)
Actions to be Performed
Query Produced Parts of Chocolate Within Specification
Range of Bitter Chocolate  Good Parts
Query Produced Parts of Chocolate  Totality
Query Classes of Referenced Process Context 
Left Hand Side (LHS) of Association Rules
Query Asserted Association Rule Setup 
Right Hand Side (RHS) of Association Rules
Good Parts  IN
Totality – Good Parts  OUT
K-RAMP
Find Systematic Process Setup
Resulting Association Rules for New Product Class
MT-01 & O-01 & S-03  IN
[Coverage=0.043 (11); Support=0.031 (8); Strength estimate=0.659;
Lift estimate=2.31; Leverage=0.0190 (4.9); p=0.0850]
S-01 & MT-01 & O-01  IN
[Coverage=0.051 (13); Support=0.031 (8); Strength estimate=0.571;
Lift estimate=2.00; Leverage=0.0168 (4.3); p=0.213]
O-01 & S-02 & MT-02  IN
[Coverage=0.051 (13); Support=0.027 (7); Strength estimate=0.505;
Lift estimate=1.77; Leverage=0.0129 (3.3); p=0.267]
S-01 & O-01 & MT-03  IN
[Coverage=0.066 (17); Support=0.035 (9); Strength estimate=0.504;
Lift estimate=1.77; Leverage=0.0162 (4.2); p=0.235]
O-01 & S-02 & MT-03  IN
[Coverage=0.059 (15); Support=0.031 (8); Strength estimate=0.504;
Lift estimate=1.77; Leverage=0.0145 (3.7); p=0.262]
Action to Perform
For Each Association Rule X
Declare Restriction of Produced Part Instances
Based on LHS (a.k.a. Process Context) of X
K-RAMP
Calculating Initial Capability Indexes and Yields
MT-01 & O-01 & S-03
S-01 & MT-01 & O-01
O-01 & S-02 & MT-02
S-01 & O-01 & MT-03
O-01 & S-02 & MT-03
K-RAMP
Calculating Initial Capability Indexes and Yields
Action to be Performed
YieldTotal: 53%
MT-01 & O-01 & S-03
YieldTotal: 77%
S-01 & MT-01 & O-01
YieldTotal: 38%
O-01 & S-02 & MT-02
YieldTotal: 60%
S-01 & O-01 & MT-03
YieldTotal: 56%
O-01 & S-02 & MT-03
YieldCacao: 99%
For Each Restriction X Caused by an
Association Rule Calculate YieldTotal With
Specification Range of Product Class Which is
Associated With Association Rule
YieldSugar: 78%
K-RAMP
Recommendation for Ramp-Up Team
YieldTotal: 53%
MT-01 & O-01 & S-03
YieldTotal: 77%
S-01 & MT-01 & O-01
YieldTotal: 38%
O-01 & S-02 & MT-02
YieldTotal: 60%
S-01 & O-01 & MT-03
YieldTotal: 56%
O-01 & S-02 & MT-03
Action to be Performed
Query Process Setup Related to Restriction X
Caused by an Association Rule
Where YieldTotal > YieldThreshold
And Recommend it as Initial Process Setup
For Qualification of New Derived Process
K-RAMP
Find Produced Parts Within Specification Range
At Target-Bakery
:Chocolate is Qualified
:BitterChocolate is Non-Qualified
:Chocolate’s Specification Ranges Envelop
Bitter Chocolate’s Specification Ranges
:ProducedPart
rdfs:subClassOf
:ProducedPartChocolate
:ProducedPartBitterChocolate
Some Produced Parts of Chocolate
are in Specification Ranges of Bitter Chocolate
:BitterChocolate
rdf:type
rdf:type
ratioCacao: [40, 70]%
ratioSugar: [0, 15]%
rdf:type
rdfs:subClassOf
rdf:type
:ProductClass
Knowledgebase and Reasoning Protégé 4.3
rdf:type
:Chocolate
ratioCacao: [10, 95]%
ratioSugar: [0, 27]%
K-RAMP
Find Systematic Process Setup
:ProducedPart
Association Rule Mining
Based on :AssociationSearchSetup Instances
 External Tool Magnum Opus, Version 4.6.3
rdfs:subClassOf
:ProducedPartChocolate
:onTotality
:BitterChocolate
ratioCacao: [40, 70]%
ratioSugar: [0, 15]%
:onProductClass
:AssociationSearchSetup
rdfs:subClassOf
:Chocolate
ratioCacao: [10, 95]%
ratioSugar: [0, 27]%
minLift: 1.0
minSupport: 0.02
minStrength: 0.5
minCoverage: 0.02
:onLHS
:onGoodParts
:ProducedPartBitterChocolate
K-RAMP
Find Systematic Process Setup
:AssociationRule
MT-01 & O-01 & S-03 -> satisfies
[Coverage=0.043 (11); Support=0.031 (8); Strength estimate=0.659; Lift
estimate=2.31; Leverage=0.0190 (4.9); p=0.0850]
:ProducedPart
rdfs:subClassOf
S-01 & MT-01 & O-01 -> satisfies
[Coverage=0.051 (13); Support=0.031 (8); Strength estimate=0.571; Lift
estimate=2.00; Leverage=0.0168 (4.3); p=0.213]
O-01 & S-02 & MT-02 -> satisfies
[Coverage=0.051 (13); Support=0.027 (7); Strength estimate=0.505; Lift
estimate=1.77; Leverage=0.0129 (3.3); p=0.267]
S-01 & O-01 & MT-03 -> satisfies
[Coverage=0.066 (17); Support=0.035 (9); Strength estimate=0.504; Lift
estimate=1.77; Leverage=0.0162 (4.2); p=0.235]
O-01 & S-02 & MT-03 -> satisfies
[Coverage=0.059 (15); Support=0.031 (8); Strength estimate=0.504; Lift
estimate=1.77; Leverage=0.0145 (3.7); p=0.262]
:hasSetup
:AssociationSearchSetup
minLift: 1.0
minSupport: 0.02
minStrength: 0.5
minCoverage: 0.02
rdfs:subClassOf
:ProducedPartChocolate
:ProducedPartBitterChocolate

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