The Texas Labor Market and the Impact of Globalization TWC State Planning Conference Austin, Texas January 7, 2003 Richard Froeschle, Director Career Development Resources(CDR) [email protected] (512) 491-4941 Think Globally… Act Locally! Defining Globalization “The inexorable integration of markets, nation-states, and technologies to a degree never witnessed before—in a way that is enabling individuals, corporations and nation-states to reach around the world farther, faster, deeper and cheaper than ever before.” Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree Olive Tree versus Lexus??? Global Labor Market of the 21st Century Creative destruction—The process of simultaneous job creation and job destruction as new skill sets are required and old skills become outdated. The same employers will be both hiring and laying off continually regardless of labor market conditions to enhance productivity and competitive edge. Joseph Schumpeter See “Churning in a Hypothetical Economy” from Technology Workers in the New Texas Economy The New Rules of Globalization Characteristic Born in… Friends and Neighbors… Defining Document… Technology Symbol… Cold War Period Globalization 1945 after the end of WWII. Lasted almost 45 years Allies vs. enemies; divisions and walls 1989 after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The Treaty—with whom are you aligned? The “hotline” connecting the two superpower nations The Deal—with whom are you doing business? The Internet-nobody in charge and everyone is connected Everyone is a competitor The New Rules of Globalization (continued) Characteristic Cold War Period Globalization World Economic System… Capitalism, socialism, communism, and autocracies Free market capitalism based on comparative advantage Cultural Impacts… Discrete ethnic or regional cultures and tradition. Past take precedence Cultural melding. Future takes precedence. Innovation over tradition Defining Power Structure of Nation-States… Fixed borders allied with either the U.S., USSR Government authority balanced by financial markets, individuals Reigning Economist… J. M. Keynes—posits strong role for government J. Schumpeter–capital move free and at will; creative destruction How Globalization Impacts the Labor Market—The Basics • Globalization and new digital technology opens new producer and consumer markets around the world • Increased access to new producers leads to global price competition driving employer need for greater productivity, lower prices • Increased price competition leads to cost containment pressures • Cost containments leads employers to new supply chain practices, concerns over labor costs, alternative labor options How Globalization Impacts the Labor Market—scenario B (part I) • Globalization (increased open trade) is built on comparative advantage, doing what a country does best, including low wage choices • Comparative advantage leads to changing industrial structures; using resources for what you produce most efficiently. Export value added, Import commodities! • Changing industry structure leads to creative destruction; continual movements of capital and job loss/gain How Globalization Impacts the Labor Market-scenario B (part II) • Creative destruction leads to increased alternative labor supply choices for employers and increased job volatility for workers, especially in non-local service industries (footloose sectors) • Job volatility results in greater job mobility (job changes), ever-changing mix of skill sets, demand for more extensive worker education, and more advanced skill sets, life-long learning Globalization of the U.S. Economy Total World Gross National Income (Product) 2001 = $31,500,012 million United States Gross National Product 2001= $9,900,724 million The FACT is that the United States economy represents 31.4 percent of the World Economy. The REALITY is that the top 20 richest countries represent 85 percent of the World Economy and the top 10 richest account for 74 percent. Top 10 Richest World Economies 2001 (in millions$$) • • • • • • • • • • United States Japan Germany United Kingdom France China Italy Canada Spain Mexico $9,900,724 $4,574,164 $1,947,951 $1,451,442 $1,377,389 $1,130,984 $1,123,478 $661,881 $586,874 $550,456 31.4% 45.9% 52.1% 56.7% 61.1% 64.7% 68.3% 70.4% 72.2% 74.0% The IMPLICATION is that U.S. companies have an opportunity to tap into an additional 68.6 percent of additional world-wide purchasing power, in addition to U.S. domestic spending. The QUOTES: “There are still good growth opportunities domestically. The economy is still strong. But American companies don’t want to be shut out of overseas growth.” “General Motors is here because of China’s growth. You’ve got a 15-20% growth in the rate of auto sales in China, and you’ve got 1.2 billion people. If you even look a 1% of that, think of how many people could buy a passenger car”. Rudolph Schlais Jr, President GM China Operations What Is an American Company? Percent of 2000 Revenue Outside U.S. • • • • • • • • YUM Brands Inc. 34.5% General Motors 26.2% Ford 30.4% Boeing 34.3% Intel 58.8% Coca Cola 61.0% Federal Express 29.9% Emerson Electric 40.0% • • • • • • • • Texaco 65.9% IBM 57.9% Motorola 52.5% Johnson/Johnson 38.2% John Deere 25.1% Colgate 69.4% Nike 50.3% Hasbro 36.0% Industry Growth Potential in a Global Economy • To whom does the industry sell and are those sectors expanding? • Is their cost structure competitive? e.g. are labor costs globally competitive relative to value added? • Do they have Positive Pricing Power in their marketplace? PPP results in higher profits! Impacts of Globalization on Consumers • Broader access to a wider variety of products and services than neighborhood offers • Greater vendor diversity leads to better buying opportunities, lower prices; eg. comparison shopping via Internet • Lost allegiance to domestic producers; what about the “union label” or U.S. TVs?? • More volatile labor market with stronger competition from global labor supply Impacts of Globalization on Business • Businesses with global reach access more customers and get exposed in new markets • Businesses with regional niche lose local customers to a global market place • Business is exposed to supply chain opportunities to acquire lower cost inputs • Business is exposed to new labor supply options; foreign affiliates, H1B, global outsourcing Texas Industries Adding the Most Jobs 1999-2002 • • • • • • • • • • Absolute Growth Educational Services Food Services/Drinking Places Ambulatory Health Care Services Professional and Technical Services Local Government Specialty Trade Contractors General Merchandise Stores Hospitals Heavy and Civil Construction Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers • • • • • • • • • • Percent Change Warehousing and Storage Management of Companies Financial Investment Heavy and Civil Construction Support Activities for Mining Ambulatory Health Care Services Utilities General Merchandise Stores Educational Services Motor Vehicles/Parts Dealers (NAICS codes) Texas Industries Losing the Most Jobs 1999-2002 Absolute Change • Agriculture/Forestry Support • Computer/Electronic Manuf. • Apparel Manufacturing • Transportation Equip Manuf. • Fabricated Metal Manuf. • Chemical Manuf. • Oil & Gas Extraction • Food & Beverage Stores • Administrative Support Services • Federal Government (NAICS codes) Percent Change • • • • • • • • • Agriculture/Forestry Support Apparel Manufacturing Computer/Electronic Manuf. Transportation Equip Manuf. Wood Product Manuf. Misc. Manufacturing Printing and Related Support Oil & Gas Extraction Electrical Equipment and Appliances • Paper Manufacturing Global Trade Works Well When… A healthy world economy needs strong US economy 1. Countries sell their goods to U.S. creating wealth— U.S. Current Account deficit/Consumer Debt OK for rest of world (imports) 2. World wants, can afford, and buys U.S. stuff (exports) 3. U.S. companies export more stuff, generate revenues and Profits (assume Positive Pricing Power exists) 4. Portion of Profits used to invest in new technology & other productivity enhancing strategies 5. Increased productivity CAN lead to job growth and potential for wage gains Globalization and the “Bursting Bubble” • World faced with excess global capacity, especially in telecom and chip manufacturing in late 90’s • U.S. economy slows, reducing import levels • Rest of World also in recession, slow/no growth • Rest of World does not buy American AND seeks to sell more products by cutting prices • U.S. companies must compete through competitive pricing. Labor costs are major cost component • Even with same market share/output, profits shrink • Low/No profits mean low/no investment in technology resulting in lower productivity • Low productivity means less expansion and fewer jobs Texas Exports 2001 $94.995 billion in 2001 • • • • • • • • Mexico (41.0%) Europe (11.8%) Southeast Asia (11.8%) Canada (10.8%) Asia (8.6%) South America (5.5%) Africa (4.8%) Middle East (3.6%) • Computer/Electronic Products (27.0%) • Chemicals (15.3%) • Machinery, ex. Electrical (13.5%) • Transportation Equipment (11.9%) • Electrical equipment (5.1%) • Petroleum (3.9%) • Fabricated metal Products (3.4%) • Plastics and Rubber (2.9%) What are the Realities or “Side Effects” of Globalization? Globalization presents both opportunities and challenges to governments and corporations. Even with current “geopolitical risks”, globalization is here to stay. But, what likely phenomena will accompany “unmanaged” global capitalism? At least some of the Handwriting is already on the wall... Side Effects of Globalization (part I) • 1. Increased wealth inequality- Rich countries and rich people get richer. Per capita GDP gap between richest and poorest countries widened from 40:1 in 1973 to 72:1 in 1992 • 2. Environmental problems are getting worseUnregulated markets encourage cheap waste dumping, encroaching on land and displacement of farmers. • 3. Acceleration of capital movement w/o productive uses- 98% of currency trading in 1998 was for speculation, not investment in plant or equipment. Fast moves can undermine a developing country’s financial markets and economy (Argentina 2001). Side Effects of Globalization (part II) • 4. Industry and Occupational Winners and LosersGlobal economy, comparative advantage causes upheaval in traditional industries. In see U.S. apparel, steel, call centers • 5. Inequality of income based on comparative advantage- Countries that specialize in low wage, low value-added products gain jobs but fall behind on income equality. • 6. An interconnected, interdependent global economy leads to a domino effect in recession. No exports, no earnings. When one country sneezes, another gets sick. Side Effects of Globalization (part III) • 7. The homogenization of global culture- a.k.a. the “McDonald-ization” World culture and diversity is downgraded with spread of American pop culture • 8. Economic specialization leads to limited jobs choices- If you limit the breadth of the economy, you limit occupational choices. Is specialization really necessary? Should everybody be a programmer? • 9. Continued economic growth threatens global limitations and capacities- Growth in undeveloped countries is important but does social inequality and environmental costs outweigh benefits to developed countries? The Workplace of the Future... The factory of the future has just one man and one dog. The man’s job is to feed the dog. The dog’s job is to keep the man from touching the equipment.