L/O/G/O Modernization and Fertility: A Critical Essay Richard A. Easterlin Presented by: Sundari Budiani Contents 1 Pendahuluan 2 Pengertian Modernisasi 3 Hub. antara Modernisasi & Fertilitas 4 Theoritical and Empirical Implications Pendahuluan ● What is the most challenging problem in the social study of human fertility? It is the causes of the shift from high to low fertility during the process of modernization ● Preceding papers supply, demand, or regulation costs ● Present paper clarify the conceptual links between modernization & fertility The Nature of Modernization Modernization defined as transformation in: 1 2 3 Economic: sustained raise in real output per capita. & changes in techniques of producing, transporting & distributing goods Sosial & demographic: involves significant alterations in fertility, mortality & migration; in place of residence; in family size & structure; educational system; & public health services. Human personality: increase openness to new experience, increased independence from parental authority. Conceptual links between Modernization & Fertility Behavior Basic Determinants Proximate Determinants Children Ever Born Proximate Determinants Reg. Cost (RC) Basic Determinants Demand of Children (Cd) Supply of Children (Cn) Deliberate Fert Control Var. Other Proximate Determinants Children Ever Born Links from Modernization to Potential Supply, Demand & Reg. Cost Factors Trough Which Fertility Control is Influenced Aspects of Modernization Demand (Cd) Tastes Income Supply (Cn) Prices Better public health & med care Growth in formal education - - Urbanization - - New consumer goods - New fert. Control methods Nat. Fert Surv. Prospe cts + + + + Reg. Cost (RC) Subj. costs Market costs - - - - - - Links PS, D & RC to Fert. Control & Fertility Modernization lower the demand for children introduces new goods and life styles (the households shift the expenditure toward new purposes inc. Having & raising children). Modernization fertility control, e.g: modern condom and improved methods of induced abortion, pill and IUD. Modernization process shifts typical household from a situation where childbearing is a matter ‘taken for granted’ to one that poses difficult problems of individual choice regarding the limitation of family size. Modernization shifts motivation of individual couples and regulation costs push them to practice deliberate family size limitation. Empirical Findings Surviving Children per Married Woman Beginning of fertility decline in A Beginning of fertility decline in B CdB CnA = CnB CdA Time Hypothetical Trends in Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) in Two Countries and the Timing of Fertility Decline The Trend in Fertility Differentials by Socioeconomic Status (SES) (a) Premodern Surviving Children per Married Woman (b) Early Modern Cd Cn Cd Cn Low Education High (c) Premodern Surviving Children per Married Woman Low Education High (d) Early Modern Cd Cn Cd Cn 15-19 Age 40-44 15-19 Age 40-44 Hypothetical Relationship Between Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) and Education and Age in Premodern and Early Modern Settings L/O/G/O Thank You!