Dr.H.N. Sethna Memorial Lecture 24.8.2012

Report
ENERGY SECURITY AND THE
THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
by
R. Chidambaram
Dr. H.N. Sethna Memorial Lecture, Nehru Centre, Mumbai,
24th August 2012
Dr. Homi N. Sethna





Chairman AEC from 1971 to 1983
Eminent Chemical Engineer and
Project Manager
One of the Nuclear Pioneers
who helped Bhabha to start the Indian
Atomic Energy Programme
Many achievements: Production of
materials which laid the foundation
of our 3-stage programme: Thorium
separation from monazite in beach
sands - Thorium Nitrate Plant(1955);
Uranium metal plant(1959) and
plutonium plant (1964)
The plutonium produced in the latter
went into the 1974 PNE test device
Dr. Sethna, R. Ramanna, P.K. Iyengar, R. Chidambaram at a press
conference on Pokhran-I, at Old Yacht Club (May 20, 1974)
I have often said:
“ National Development and National Security are two
sides of the same coin. Development without Security
is vulnerable; Security without Development is
meaningless”.
“ The greatest advantage of recognized strength is that
you don’t have to use it. This is the basis of Nuclear
Deterrence.”
In May 1998, after the extremely successful Pokhran II
tests, India declared itself a Nuclear Weapon State.
Plutonium is a crucial material for nuclear weapons
Variation of Human Development Index(HDI) with respect to PCEC
I have been saying for two decades that the two measures of development
for us are PCEC and Female Literacy
1.0
100%
Human Development Index (HDI) in 2011
99%
0.9
90.2%
83.6%
0.8
89.1%
80.7%
0.7
India of our dreams
0.6
Percentage Literacy
(India)
M
F
2001
2011
74
85
54
65
64%
0.5
Source: Census 2011
India now
0.4
32.7%
0.3
References:
Human Development Report, 2011
World Bank, 2011
World Factbook, CIA
0.2
0.1
0.0
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Per Capita Electricity Consumption (PCEC) in 2009
(kWh/capita/year)
5
“There is no power as costly as no-power” – Homi Bhabha(1950’s) R. Chidambaram 2012



Fossil Fuels, particularly Coal: Clean Coal
Technologies (IGCC. Adv. Ultrasupercritical Thermal
Plant, CCS, etc.)
Renewable Sources (Solar, Wind, Hydro, etc.)
Nuclear
All are important for India
Future Possibilities for Energy Security
 Biofuels, Shale Gas, etc.
 Accelerator-Driven Sub-critical System
 Fusion (ITER & LIFE)
R. Chidambaram
“The estimates made here indicate that even with a frugal
per capita electricity need of 2000 kWh/annum* and a
stabilized population of 1700 million by 2070, India
would need to generate 3400 TWh/yr. As opposed to
this, a systematic analysis of the information available on
all the renewable energy sources indicates that the total
potential is only around 1229 TWh/yr. (438 TWh/yr.
from Solar).
It is concluded that in the future as fossil fuels are
exhausted, renewable sources alone will not suffice for
meeting India’s needs.”
S. P. Sukhatme, Current Science, Vol.101(5),
10 September, 2011
* This, as Dr. Sukhatme says, is a frugal estimate. My estimate of the per
capita electricity need , before India becomes a ‘developed’ country in the
full est sense of the term , is at least three times higher.
Nuclear Growth in USA & France
110000
100000
90000
N e t E le ctrica l P o w e r M W (e )
96228
USA
F ra n ce
80000
98068
96297
98145
100683
74401
70000
60000
63080
50881
55808
50000
40000
63260
63130
58573
35891
37468
30000
20000
10000
0
14388
6333
1710
1970
2931
1975
1980
1985
1990
Y e a rs
1995
2000
2005
The growth between 1970 and 1990 shows that nuclear power in
necessary nuclear-related technologies can grow rapidly.
2010
countries with
Source IAEA-PRIS
20000
18000
S o u th K o re a
C h in a
In d ia
N e t E le ctrica l P o w e r M W (e )
16000
17705
16810
14000
12990
12000
10000
9115
8000
8438
7220
6000
6587
3984
4000
2188
3580
2000
420
606
0
0
832
1143
2188
0
564
1975
2993
1324
1746
0
1970
2508
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Y e a rs
Large energy-stressed countries like India and China, in particular, desperately
need nuclear power inputs.
Source IAEA-PRIS
The three-stage Indian nuclear programme is based on the closed nuclear
fuel cycle and thorium utilisation
PHWR
Nat. U
U fueled
PHWRs
AHWR
FBTR
300 GWe-Year
Th
42000
GWe-Year
Electricity
Dep. U
Th
155000
GWe-Year
Electricity
Pu Fueled
Fast Breeders
Pu
U233
U233 Fueled
Reactors
Pu
Electricity
U233
Power generation primarily by PHWR Expanding power programme Thorium utilisation for
Building U233 inventory
Sustainable power programme
Building fissile inventory for stage 2
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Nuclear is now an accepted mitigation technology in the context of the Climate Change Threat. But if it is to be a
sustainable mitigation technology, you have to close the nuclear fuel cycle.
NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE
There are 8 Missions outlined in the National Action Plan on
Climate Change:
•National
•National
•National
•National
•National
•National
•National
•National
Solar Mission
Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
Mission on Sustainable Habitat
Water Mission
Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
Mission for a “Green India”
Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change
Of course, much else has also been suggested beyond these 8
Missions. Nuclear Energy is not in the above list because the
Department of Atomic Energy is itself a Mission – oriented
Agency.
A new (9th) Mission on Clean Coal (Carbon) Technologies is
being considered
Other Dimensions of Energy Security and
Climate Change Mitigation
I am focusing in this talk on energy production technologies.
But there are other dimensions related to energy use:

There is a ‘Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency’ in the
National Action Plan on Climate Change.

The Department of Heavy Industry has proposed a ‘National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan(NEMMP) – 2020’ through
faster adoption of electric vehicles (including hybrids).
Globally the transportation sector accounts for 30% of
energy consumption and 20% of global Greenhouse Gas
emissions.
Importance of the Kudankulam Project
The ~1000 Mwe that Tamil Nadu will get from the two KKNPs is the power that,
at the current per capita electricity consumption rate in Tamil Nadu, is supplied
to more than 4 million people
KK type plants: 16 in Russia and 9 in other countries. In
particular China Tianwan Phase I – Two VVER 1000 reactors
– both went into commercial operation in 2007. Six more
units planned in Tianwan
“Expanded use of nuclear technologies offers immense
potential to meet important development needs. In fact, to
satisfy energy demands and to mitigate the threat of
climate change – two of the 21st century’s greatest
challenges – there are major opportunities for expansion of
nuclear energy in those countries that choose to have it”.
from Report on “The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and
Beyond”, prepared by an independent Commission at the
request of the Director General of the International
Atomic Energy Agency – 2008. I was a member of this
Commission.
Lessons have been learnt by all nuclear countries from last
year’s Fukushima accident, particularly on the integrity of
post-shutdown cooling systems following extreme natural
events, but the above conclusion remains unchanged.
IAEA General Conference, Vienna, September, 2011:
Statement of the Chinese representatives
(This meeting was held six months after the Fukushima accident)
Quoted old Chinese proverb:
eating for fear of choking !’
‘Should not stop
What he meant was that, while safety reviews
should be there after the Fukushima accident, the
response cannot be to reject the essential nuclear
energy option.
N.B: Ohi No.4 reactor – second reactor to resume operation in
Japan after the Fukushima accident : started generating
power at full capacity on 24th July, 2012.
Highly Productive Institutions in Nuclear Waste Management during
1970-2009 as per INIS Database (Five year blocks)
Courtesy: Dr. R.K. Sinha, BARC
SAFETY CULTURE
Safety is in design and in operation; Safety has to be ensured
through regulation. But, most importantly, Safety is assured
through the existence of a Safety Culture. In the more than
four decades of our operation
of nuclear reactors, our
excellent track record in Safety is because of the Safety
Culture in DAE.
These facts and the benefits of nuclear energy – direct and
spin off – have to be conveyed to the people living in the
neighbourhood of our nuclear power plants (existing and
planned)
through
Neighbourhood
Public
Awareness
Programmes.
Our communication to the public must be correct, concise
and comprehensible to the layman. Incidentally, it is a fact
that, outside his/her area of specialisation, even a scientist is
not much better than a layman, though by training his/her
grasp of new scientific facts may be better.
R. Chidambaram
 Accelerator – driven sub-critical reactor,
using the spallation nuclear reaction.
 Thermonuclear
fusion
–
Magnetic
Confinement Fusion (Tokamak):ITER and
Inertial
Confinement
(Laser-Induced)
Fusion:LIFE (National Ignition Facility,
Livermore).
 All these systems are for energy as reactors
or for energy amplification and fissile
material breeding as hybrids.
ITER (International Tokamak Experimental Reactor)
Joint Venture of 7 parties
ITER
Fusion Power: 500 MW
Plasma Volume: 840 m3
Plasma Current: 15 MA
Typical Density: 1020 m-3
Typical Temperature: 20 keV
ITER complex at Cadarache, FRANCE
(an artists view)
Courtesy : Y.C. Saxena
“After the second world war, the U.S … led the world …… through
the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) central role in technology
development. To support this technology base, the DoD invested in
emerging fields….Resulting waves of innovation created whole
industries that helped to fuel the US economy…. The attributes that
accounted for the military’s successes (included), in particular, its
focused mission. …….…. and its role as an early customer for
advanced technologies”.
Daniel Sarewitz, Nature 471, 137(9 March 2011)
India’s mission-oriented agencies have a similar experience and
must continue to play a catalytic role in India’s technology
development. More generally India, if it is to become a knowledgedriven economy, should be in the forefront as a first introducer of
new advanced technologies. The so-called ‘Proven’ Technologies,
unless followed by continuous evolutionary improvements, are
often a synonym for obsolete technologies,
SUSTAINED INNOVATIONS
“The lesson of Bell Labs is that most feats of sustained innovation….
occur when people of diverse talents and mind-sets and expertise are
brought together, preferably in close proximity. For fifty years,
economic growth and job creation were propelled by …… the
willingness to nurture theoretical research in conjunction with applied
science and manufacturing skills with Bell Labs and other such idea
factories disappearing …. What will propel innovation … for the next
50 years.”
Jon Gertner “The Idea Factory:
Bell Labs….”, 2012
There is little doubt that fundamental science, applied research and
manufacturing skills have to coexist to achieve sustained innovations in
advanced technology areas.
R. Chidambaram
Nuclear applications for
Human Well-being
Knowledge from the nuclear community is often helpful in
pursing non-nuclear technologies …..
Within the energy sector, the nuclear community around
the world, which the IAEA is uniquely positioned to
network, can contribute significantly to other technologies.
In renewable energy technologies, for example, the
nuclear community’s extensive knowledge is a valuable
resource in areas such as thermal engineering, materials,
and computational fluid dynamics.
from Report on “The Role of the IAEA to 2020 and Beyond”, prepared by
an independent Commission at the request of the Director General of the
International Atomic Energy Agency – 2008. I was a member of this
Commission.
An Example of RuTAG/HESCO-BARC work in Uttarakhand
(RuTAG is an Open Platform Innovation Strategy of PSA’s office)
Identification of Recharge Zones to Drying Springs in Gaucher
Here springs are the only available source of water for
domestic and agricultural use.
Techniques applied include;
 Measurement of environmental stable isotopic
ratios of 18O/16O, 2H/1H and environmentally
radioactive tritium.
 Geomorphologic and hydrogeological data.
Based on the above analysis, artificial recharge
structures were constructed at selected locations.
The rate of discharge increased three to nine times
in many springs and also two new springs sprang up.
Almost all the springs have become perennial.
R. Chidambaram
from K. Shivanna, Gursharan Singh, A.P. Joshi et al,
Current Science(2008)
For the next 2 or 3 decades, most of our capacity addition may come from coalburning. Need for Advanced USC coal-based plants, where the steam temperature
is 700-750 deg.C.
Consortium of IGCAR, BHEL and NTPC – Dr. Baldev Raj spear-headed the initial
effort, now Shri S.C. Chetal.
The most important issue here is the materials issue, that is where the capability of
IGCAR, honed by their three decades of experience in the materials design and
development of fast breeder reactors, becomes so important. DAE also has
interest in high temperature reactors.
We need materials for boiler tubes and for turbine blades. While the main R&D
project is aimed towards the full development of a 800 Mwe A-USC plant, my Office
has supported two projects, which can be called pre-projects, one for the
development of boiler tubes and the other for blade material. Two new indigenous
materials have been developed by IGCAR for boiler tubes, with the help of
MIDHANI and NFC.
304HCu SS Tubes
Alloy 617 M tubes
Extrusion Of UNS S30432
Sup 304H-Cu Hot Extruded
89 mm OD x 14 WT blank
Real Time Extrusion Parameter As Recorded By
Data Acquisition System(DAS)
Optical Micrographs of As extruded Sup
304H-Cu Hot Extruded
89 mm OD x 14 WT blank
Courtesy: EPP, NFC (S. K. Jha)
Extrusion of UNS N6617
Extrusion Temperature-1105 0 C/ 1130 0 C
Ram Speed – 43mm/sec, 46 mm /sec
Optical Micrographs of As extruded
and annealed In 617 blank
Courtesy: EPP, NFC (S. K. Jha)
Optical Micrographs of As extruded
and annealed Inconel 617 blank
Picture of finished In- 617
52 mm OD x 11.9 WT tube
Optical micrograph of finished
Inconel 617 indicating uniform
distribution of fine carbides
From any energy producing system, a part
goes to industry, a part for urban
consumption but a part also goes to small
towns and villages, which get better drinking
water, better sanitation, better primary health
care, all of which have an impact on health
parameters, including life expectancy at birth,
and therefore on the Human Development
Index.
R. Chidambaram
The local economy in the regions around our nuclear
power plants begins to flourish even during the execution
of a nuclear power project, and of course after its
completion.
Both urban and rural India require early introduction of
important new advanced technologies and here India’s
mission-oriented agencies (including nuclear) have played
a catalytic role
Sustained Nuclear Power Growth is necessary for both
rapid Industrial Development and rapid Rural
Development.
Global Uranium Supply
(Excerpts from “Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand, a
joint study by the OECD/NEA and IAEA 2012)
“…. Total identified resources are sufficient for over 100 years of supply
based on current requirements. …. Nuclear power remains a key part
of the global energy mix…. With the strongest expansion expected in
China, India, …… by the year 2035,…. world nuclear generating
capacity is projected to increase from 370 GWe net (at the end of
2010) by ….. between 44% and 99% …
Accordingly…. Uranium
requirements are projected to rise from 63,875 tonnes of uranium
metal (tu) at the end of 2010 to between 98,000 (tu) and 136,000 tu
by 2035……. The deployment of advanced reactors and fuel cycle
technologies can also positively affect the long term availability of
uranium, conceivably extending the time horizon of the currently
defined resource base to thousand of years”.
The Fourth assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change(IPCC) concluded that the
temperature changes between 20902099 relative to 1980-1999 will range
from 1.1 to 6.4°C and sea level rise
from 0.18 to 0.59 meters.
R. Chidambaram
EQUITY and the Climate Change Threat
Ultimate Equity implies same entitlement of per capita CO2e emissions for
everyone in the world. India’s current CO2e emissions is about 2 tonnes
per capita - China is four times higher and US fourteen times higher.
The “Durban Platform” for Enhanced Action of the UNFCCC meeting in
December 2011 talks about raising “the level of ambition” and about launching
“a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties…”. But
this cannot be at the cost of equity.
Kyoto protocol talks of “common but differentiated responsibilities” among
nations. The Bali declaration confirmed this.
India went further at the
Copenhagen Conference of parties to the UNFCCC “to reduce the emissions
intensity of its GDP by 20-25 percent by 2020 in comparison with 2005”. *
The expert group on Low-Carbon Strategy for Inclusive Growth of the Planning
Commission, chaired by Dr. Kirit Parikh, has identified specific measures to
achieve this.
* the quotes are from “India’s Low Carbon Growth Strategy” by Kirit Parikh and
Nicholas Stern, Indian Express, 8th June, 2012
Closing the Nuclear Fuel Cycle and the
Climate Change Threat
Nuclear installed capacity with open and closed fuel cycle options
6000
5500
N u c le a r in s t a lle d
c a p a c it y d e rive d fro m
n u c le a r e n e rg y
g ro w t h p ro file o f A 1 T
s c e n a rio a n d
a c h ie ve d b y c lo s in g
t h e fu e l c y c le
Installed c apacity (G W e)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
G ro w t h o f in s t a lle d
c a p a c it y w it h
u ra n iu m u s e d in
o p e n fu e l c y c le t o
m e e t t a rg e t p ro file o f
A 1 T s c e n a rio
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
Y e ar
from Chidambaram, Sinha & Patwardhan, Nuclear Energy Review 2007
Nuclear is now an accepted mitigation technology in the context of the Climate
Change Threat. But if it is to be a sustainable mitigation technology, you have to
close the nuclear fuel cycle.
Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project
• Advanced model of 2 x 1000 MWe VVER (Pressurized Water
Reactor (PWR)) type reactors have the state of art safety
features, which were comprehensively reviewed by a task force
of NPCIL (The report of the task force is available in the website
of NPCIL and DAE)
• Double containment- hermetically sealed.
• Passive Heat Removal System.
• Additional shut down systems.
• Core Catcher System.
• No tsunami risk
• State of art instrumentation systems
The KKNP first reactor will be
commissioned shortly
Courtesy: MK Balaji
DAE/AERB Safety Review Post Fukushima

DAE/NPCIL constituted six Task Forces (TFs) to review
consequences of occurrences of Fukushima-like situations
in Indian NPPS, as directed by the Prime Minister.

These TFs made an assessment of safety of Indian NPPs
assuming non-availability of motive power and design water
supply routes and recommended further improvements.

The TFs finding: continued decay heat removal mechanisms
exist in Indian NPPs.

All Indian NPPs are meeting current safety standards

Recommended inclusion of extreme natural events in AERB
documents,
gave recommendations related to severe
accident management analysis, guidelines and provisions.
(Courtesy: S.A. Bhardwaj)

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