Presentation - Regional Technical Forum (RTF)

Report
Out-Of-Compliance Grocery UES
Measure Recommendations
Regional Technical Forum
July 15, 2014
2
Presentation Outline
•
•
•
•
Background
Measure Overview
Staff Highlighted Areas
UES Workbook
– Measure Descriptions
– Measure Analysis and Input Details
– Savings, Cost, and Cost Effectiveness
• RTF Staff Recommendation
• Proposed Decision
3
Background
• Multiple Grocery measures found Out-of-Compliance
– Subsequent analysis determined remaining potential small
– Extended sunset date at November 2013 meeting
– Staff to develop plan to bring back into compliance
• Grocery measures in question:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
ECMs for Walk-ins – Done
Walk-in Evaporator Fan ECMotor Controllers – Done
Compressor Head Fan Motor Retrofit to ECM – Done
Display Case LEDs (Open Cases) - Done
Floating Head Pressure Controls for Single Compressor Systems Done
Door Gasket Replacement - Done
Auto Door Closers
Strip Curtains
4
Background – Remaining Potential
Regional
Sector Measure
Priority
1
Grocery
2
Grocery - Display Case LEDs (Open
Cases)
Remaining
Remaining
Potential Potential aMW for
Notes
aMW
next 2 years
(Cadmus)
(PECI)
0.48
N/A
Measure of interest for PECI
Grocery - Floating Head Pressure
Grocery Controls for Single Compressor
Systems
0.46
0.06
Remaining potential is small for PECI program (when
measure is limited to grocery sector)
3
Grocery Grocery - Autoclosers
0.26
0.21
Remaining potential is small for PECI program
3
Grocery Grocery - Door Gasket Replacement
0.65
0.021
Remaining potential is small for PECI program
3
Grocery Grocery - Strip Curtains
1.61
0.015
Remaining potential is small for PECI program
Note: Remaining potential based on PNW territory only.
5
What hasn’t been done
• Estimating measure interactions very limited
– Only looked at HVAC interaction within measure
– Possible to have interactions among measures
RTF Measure Interactions
Auto Door
Closers
Auto Door Closers
Display
Case LEDs
(Open
Door Gasket
Cases)
Replacement
x
Floating Head
Pressure
Controls for
Single
Compressor
Systems
Strip
Curtains
x
Display Case LEDs (Open Cases)
Door Gasket Replacement
x
x
Floating Head Pressure Controls for Single
Compressor Systems
Strip Curtains
x
x
6
RTF direction to take
• Last time RTF agreed with staff
recommendation to ignore interactions for
these small saver grocery measures
– Staff estimate is that interactions are likely small
and do not warrant further research
– Furthermore, estimation methods of measures
are varied and it may not be practical to reliably
determine interactions
7
Door Auto Closer on walk-ins and reach-ins
8
Measure Overview
• What does it do?
– Installs a new Door Auto Closer on existing walk-in
or reach-in case that either has one that is broken
or does not have one at all
– Savings occur from:
• Runtime reduction on refrigeration system
• Load reduction on store HVAC heating system
– Assuming grocery stores heat most of the year
9
Recommendation Memo Items
Recommendation Memo Item
Staff Response
The amount of time that doors are normally unintentionally
left ajar, the Doorway Open Time Factor, is set at 25% of
daily hours for all four measures. This assumption needs to
be based on measured data.
Staff has no basis for estimating
the Doorway Open Time Factor.
Staff has assumed 25% for the
purposes of this analysis, but
note that this value could
reasonably be between 0% and
100%. Savings are directly
proportional to this value.
Door open time is based on ADM
study and PECI measured data
from gasket test as a baseline.
The savings figure for the reach-in glass doors medium
temperature measure is estimated assuming a 66% factor of
the reach-in glass door low temperature measure figures.
Support with data.
Small saver negates need to
collect primary data. Professional
Judgment will be used.
10
Staff Highlighted Areas
• Unintentional door open time
– Based on professional judgment only
– Savings vary by orders of magnitude within the
range of reasonable assumptions
11
Unintentional Door Open Time
• Value is meant to represent time door is left
unintentionally open (i.e. almost closed)
– Not the same as door open/close times for
accessing product
• Gasket study open times as a reality test
Weighted average of all
sites
Low-temp Reach-in Avg.
Mean
5.0%
Med-temp Reach-in Avg.
Minutes open per
day
Autocloser
Minutes
Hours
reduction in unintentionally unintentionally
unintentional
left open per left open per
time left open
day
day
71
25.0%
18
0.3
3.6%
52
25.0%
13
0.2
Low-temp Walk-in Avg.
4.5%
64
25.0%
16
0.3
Med-temp Walk-in Avg.
24.3%
350
25.0%
87
1.5
12
Unintentional Door Open Time
• But savings are directly proportional to this
estimate, with no data to support it
Reach-in Autocloser Savings
Walk-in Autocloser Savings
1200
9000
8000
1000
7000
6000
Savings (kWh/yr)
Savings (kWh/yr)
800
600
400
5000
4000
3000
2000
200
1000
0
0
Reach-in Low Temp (LT)
10%
25%
Reach-in Med. Temp (MT)
50%
75%
Walk-in Low Temp (LT)
10%
25%
Walk-in Med. Temp (MT)
50%
75%
13
Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness
• Go to the following sections in the
Presentation tab in the proposed measure
workbook:
– Measure savings
– Measure costs
– Measure TRC B/C ratios
14
RTF Staff Recommendation
• Deactivate measure due to high uncertainty in
Doorway Open Time Factor and resulting high
uncertainty in savings.
• Set the measure status to “Deactivated”
15
Proposed Decision
“I _______________ move that the RTF set the measure
status of the ‘Door Auto Closer’ measure to ‘Deactivated.’”
16
Strip Curtains on Walk-ins
17
Measure Overview
• What does it do?
– Installs a strip curtain on a walk-in freezer or
cooler where none existed before (so my picture
was a little misleading)
– Savings occur from:
• Load reduction of refrigeration system
• Load reduction on store HVAC heating system
– Assuming grocery stores heat most of the year
18
Recommendation Memo Items
Recommendation Memo Item
Staff Response
The measure definition should clarify whether or not the
measure applies to walk-in units with loading dock exterior
doors. The average environmental temperatures used in the
ADM HIM report apparently include some fraction of
exterior spaces.
The HVAC interaction factor has
a small impact on savings.
However infiltration air is large.
Professional judgment needed.
Research Plan called for the collection of Time Door Open
per Day for both pre- and post-installation periods to ensure
the savings calculations account for any post installation
variation in door open times. Results were presented from
metering in August 2011, which showed that the results
were not statistically significant. New data is needed.
Should we use non-statistically
significant data for this
parameter? Professional
judgment needed. However,
savings only range by a factor of
2 over a very wide range of
assumptions.
The values for the Temperature of Surroundings parameter,
which are found on the “Assumptions” worksheets for the
various building types, need to be based on regional
measured data.
If limited to walk-ins that no
exterior doors, likely that
surrounding temperatures are
similar in CA grocery stores
compared to the PNW.
19
Staff Highlighted Areas
• Temperature of Surroundings Parameter
– Some walk-ins open to unconditioned spaces
– No adjustment for PNW compared to CA
• Strip Curtain Takeback
– Do door open times increase after strip curtains are
installed?
– Results are only moderately sensitive to this effect.
• Strip Curtain EUL
– CA program evaluation found that measure was
typically replaced well before commonly assumed
lifetime.
20
Temperature of Surroundings
• Used to determine infiltration air temp
• A small swing of infiltration temp produces a large swing in
savings
– Savings increase as infiltration temp increases
• ADM study results use storage area temps in respective
establishments
– These include some indoor and unconditioned zones
• No easy way to access ADM data on climate zone
weightings to discern % of outdoor/indoor walk-ins used
• Recommend limiting measure eligibility to walk-ins that
open to conditioned spaces only
– Likely that storage areas/grocery stores same in PNW and CA
– Walk-ins that open to outdoor spaces have higher infiltration air
temps; savings potential may be much larger
21
Strip Curtain Takeback
• Door open time is a primary determinant
• Some data on pre-install door open time
• No statistical data on the ratio of post- to preinstall door open times
• Some anecdotal evidence does suggest significant
takeback can occur (i.e. post/pre ratio > 1)
• Results only vary by a factor of 2 across a wide
range of assumptions (from post/pre ratio of 0.25
to 3).
22
Example of Pre- and PostDoor Open Times
800
700
Door Open Time (Min/Day)
600
500
400
Pre
Post
300
200
100
0
PECI Data- Cooler
(n=10)
August 2011 RTF presentation
PECI Data- Freezer
(n=3)
CPUC Data- Cooler CPUC Data- Freezer
(n=14)
(n=9)
BPA Data- Cooler
(n=10)
BPA Data- Freezer
(n=4)
Example of Pre- and PostDoor Open Times
December 2007 BPA M&V presentation
23
24
Strip Curtain Takeback
• Effect of varying post-install times on savings.
Annual Savings by Post-Case Open Time Scenario
Savings (kWh/yr/sqft)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Restaurant - Restaurant - Convenient Convenient Grocery Grocery - Refrigerated
Cooler walk- Freezer
Store Store Cooler walk- Freezer Warehouse in door
walk-in door Cooler walk- Freezer
in door
walk-in door Cooler walkin door
walk-in door
in door
25% of pre-case open time
100% of pre-case open time
200% of pre-case open time
300% of pre-case open time
25
Strip Curtain Takeback
• Recommend incorporating some level of
takeback in estimate to
– reflect anecdotal evidence
– place savings in the middle of the range of
reasonable estimates
• Staff using a ratio of 2:1 for post-pre door open times
• No significant data on this estimate
• Up to RTF professional judgment
26
Strip Curtain Lifetime
• Typical EUL is four years.
• However, CA impact evaluation found that
program-installed strip curtains were typically
maintained more frequently.
These findings suggest a mean
time to replacement of 2 to 3
years.
Source: Commercial Facilities Contract Group 2006-2008 Direct Impact Evaluation Study ID: PUC0016.03 Volume 3 of 3 HIM Appendices
27
Savings, Cost, & Cost Effectiveness
• Go to the following sections in the
Presentation tab in the proposed measure
workbook:
– Measure savings
– Measure costs
– Measure TRC B/C ratios
28
RTF Staff Recommendation
• Limit eligibility of measure to walk-ins that
open to conditioned spaces only
• Assume a level of takeback that results in
savings in the middle of the range of possible
savings.
– Staff recommends a post/pre door open time ratio
of 2.
• Set measure life to 2.5 years.
29
Proposed Decision
“I _______________ move that the RTF:
•
Approve the ‘Strip Curtain’ measure as a “Small Saver”
UES;
–
Limited to walk-ins that open to conditions spaces only
–
Using a post-install to pre-install door open time ratio of 2.0
–
Using a measure life of 2.5 years
•
Set the measure status to ‘Active;’ and
•
Set the sunset date to July, 2019.”

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