The Impact of Web 2.0 - International Association of

Report
E- Book Trends: An Industry Analyst’s
Viewpoint
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
1
Some are born great, some
achieve greatness, and
some have greatness thrust
upon them…
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
Reader Devices Breath-of-Life
• Early days of PDF on screen
• Now dedicated, networked reading
devices
• Amazon – Oprah – Bookclub
The Story of Edgar Sawtelle
20% of its sales via Kindle
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3
Definition
No standard
“Downloadable units of digital book
content that can be read on a variety of
devices”
• Discrete units of content, often based
on previously print content
• NOT a website derived from a book
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
4
E-Book Readers
• Amazon Kindle & Sony Reader
dominate
• E Ink
•Print-like reading experience
•Power only used to change page
• Purchase titles online
•Networked, Interactive
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
5
Sales of E-Book Readers Taking Off
2008 Estimates
Amazon Kindle 2 ($360; £240)
380,000 – 500,000 units *
Sony Reader $350 / £230
250,000 - 300,000 units *
iRex iLiad $700 / £470
10,000 – 50,000 units
Apple iPhone/iPod Touch +
Stanza (free app)
395,000 downloads
(5,000 per day) ***
Sources:
* DIGITIMES, Citigroup estimates, Outsell estimates
** Outsell estimates
*** Lexcycle, producer of the Stanza application
Typical prices shown for latest models; may vary depending on supplier
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
6
Not Yet Mass Market
• Outsell’s end user survey 2008.
% of respondents owning…
Sony Reader 1.2%
Kindle
0.9%
iPhone
10.7%
• Early technology; high prices
Source: Outsell Inc.
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
7
And Other Devices Compete
• Explosive success of multi-purpose
handhelds & phones slowing
adoption of single-use devices
• Amazon’s 240,000 titles now available
for iPhone/iPod Touch
• Mobile version of Google’s Books
Search Service…1.5 million public
domain titles
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
8
E-Book Formats & Standards
•EPUB preferred by publishers
•Kindle, Mobi, PDF entrenched
•Amazon dropping Microsoft & Adobe eBook
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9
Revenues derived from the sale of content
to e-book devices will grow rapidly....
2008-2011
CAGR 38.4%
vs. Information
Industry 4.5%
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
10
Segmentation by Geography....
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11
Segmentation by Genre....
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12
Educational User Pros & Cons
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13
Students – Small Part of Market…
• Lack of content availability
• Faculty unwilling to recommend over
print
• Publishers’ other online alternatives
compete
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
14
…But Potential Exists
• JISC National E-Books Observatory
• 36 Text, 127 HEIs, 20,000 respondents
• 60% use e-books
•via Library (46%)
•Free via Internet (43%)
•Purchased (5%)
• 37% consulted 3 or more e-books in
prior month
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
15
Student Usage Habits
• Problem-centric: Dip in & out
• Essay deadlines drive uneven usage
• Unlimited access models preferred
• 24/7 flexible access on & off campus
• No cannibalization of print sales!
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
16
Business Model Experimentation
•
•
•
•
•
•
Collections
Rental
One-off
Unlimited access
Per-chapter
Custom books
Blurring between
• “Book” (discrete unit)
• “Journal” (subscription)
• “Database” (search)
Springer
•
•
•
•
DRM-free; unlimited access
Institutional Subscription
Collections only
FTE-based discounting on print list
Safari Books Online
• Packages of titles
• Downloadable chapters
• Subscriptions
Taylor & Francis
• Rental, One-off, Custom Books
• Subs, packages, per title
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
17
The E-Book’s Time Has Come
Capabilities
+
Technology
+
Content
=
Open for business!
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
18
A final thought….
“It is not the strongest of the
species that survive, nor the
most intelligent, but rather
the one most responsive to
change”
Charles Darwin
© 2009 Outsell, Inc. All rights reserved.
19
Outsell is the only research and advisory firm focused on
the publishing, information, and education industries. Our international
team provides independent, fact-based analysis and actionable advice
about competitors, markets, operational benchmarks, and best
practices, so our clients thrive and grow in today's fast-changing digital
and global environment.
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The information, analysis, and opinions (the “Content”) contained herein are based on the qualitative and quantitative research methods of Outsell, Inc. and
its staff’s extensive professional expertise in the industry. Outsell has used its best efforts and judgment in the compilation and presentation of the Content
and to ensure to the best of its ability that the Content is accurate as of the date published. However, the industry information covered by this report is
subject to rapid change. Outsell makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, concerning or relating to the accuracy of the Content in this
report and Outsell assumes no liability related to claims concerning the Content of this report.
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