Envision Tomorrow Updates and indicators

Report
ENVISION TOMORROW
UPDATES AND INDICATORS
What is
Envision Tomorrow?

Suite of planning tools:

GIS Analysis Tools

Prototype Builder
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Scenario Builder
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Return on Investment (ROI) model
Extension for ArcGIS
Performance Models
Why Use
Scenario Planning?

Weigh choices against
consequences

Test policy options quickly

Prepare for uncertainty

Develop strategies to optimize
outcomes
Scenario Building
Process
Baseline
Analysis
Create Building &
Development
Types
Scenario
Development
Evaluation
Regional “Balance” Analysis


Jobs-Housing balance
impacts transportation
GIS tool to identify
imbalanced areas

Candidates for detailed
scenarios
Redevelopment
Readiness Analysis


A tool to assess which parcels within a study area may be
candidates for redevelopment in the short term.
Two methods:

Low Hanging Fruit: isolate the bottom quartile of total value per acre
(land + improvement)

Timing: estimate the parcels that are ready today, or within 5-10
years based on the age of the structure and the value of the land
and a depreciation schedule.
Building-Level
Financial Analysis



Envision Tomorrow
Prototype Builder
Estimate ROI (Return on
Investment) based on local
costs and rents/sales prices
Gap Financing Tools
Test Financial Performance
of Zoning Alternatives
Baseline
Optimal
4 story Mixed Use with existing parking
6 story Mixed Use with lower parking requirements
Baseline
Height
Parking Spaces
Land Used
Density
Floor Area Ratio
Project Value
Unit Cost
Optimal
Change
4 Stories
6 Stories
+2
127
115
-10%
43,000 Square Ft
43,000 Square Ft
0%
31 DU / Acre
63 DU / Acre
+103%
1.1
2.0
+79%
$17.3 Million
$23.5 Million
+35%
$519,272
$369,590
-29%
Create
Prototype Buildings
Why start with buildings?

Easily modeled & lots of existing data

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Physical Form

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
Density and Design
Rents and Sales Prices
Costs and Affordability
Energy and Water Use
Fiscal Impacts
Height
Unit sizes
Parking configurations
Financial Reality



Rents / sales prices
Construction costs
Land costs
Feasible?
Development Type Mix
A Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place”
Town
Center
Medium-Density
Residential
Single-Family
Residential
Real-time Scenario Building
and Evaluation
Select
Paint
See Changes in Real Time
Envision Tomorrow
Scenario Indicators

Land consumption & impact



Infill and Redevelopment




Unit type mix, FAR, density, tenure
Cost and affordability (rents / sales prices)
Match to estimated future housing demand
Employment



Percentage of growth on vacant lands or
accommodated through infill
Housing


Vacant and redevelopment lands
Measure development impact to sensitive
lands (user defined sensitive areas)
Industry mix, FAR and density
Employment wage
Jobs-Housing Balance
Envision Tomorrow
Scenario Indicators

Square footage of new buildings by
type

Land use mix (entropy score)

Value of new buildings

Sales and property tax revenues
 Value of required subsidy
Household and Population




Population and density
Average household size
Average household income
 Based on new housing costs
Envision Tomorrow
Scenario Indicators

Parking spaces, area and costs

Lot coverage and impervious surface

Private landscaping and open space

Estimated new street
characteristics


New street length
Network and intersection density
Building-Level
Sustainability Indicators

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Building energy use
Carbon emissions from energy
use
Landscaping water consumption
Internal building water
consumption
Solid waste generated
Fiscal Impact
Modeling




A Modified Version of the Federal “FIT”
Fiscal Impact Model
Estimate and compare county and
municipal revenues and costs from scenarios
Uses building values and infrastructure
costs from Envision Tomorrow to capture
explicit differences in revenues and costs
from different land use types
Indicators:



Revenue Cost Ratio
New Revenues (Property, Income and Sales
Taxes)
New Costs (Infrastructure, O&M and
Services)
Revenues vs. Expenditures
Net Annual Revenue
Proximity Measures
(Walkable Access)


Calculate the proportion of
development in a scenario
that is within walking
distance to any amenity,
such as a school or park
Example:

50% of residents are within
a 10 minute walk to a park
Affordability
Housing + Transportation + Energy Costs

Assess trade-offs

Trade higher housing costs for lower transportation costs?
Shared Parking
Opportunity

Increases in walking combined with
mixing uses presents an opportunity for
shared parking
Transportation
Indicators


Household Vehicle Miles
Traveled
Trips by Mode
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Auto
Transit
Walk
Bike
Cost of Transportation
(Auto and Transit)
Health Benefits of
Increased Walking
Changes is Transportation
Air Pollutants
Household Travel App

Predicts travel
behavior based on
land use variables

Household VMT

Auto trips
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Walk trips

Transit trips

Bike trips
70 Output Fields Calculated
for Each “Neighborhood” Boundary
Accessibility Variables
Household
Variables
Variable
GIS Field Name
Household Size
TOT_AVG_HH_SIZE
Household Income
TOT_AVG_HH_INC
Number of Employed Workers in the Household
TOT_AVG_HH_WORKERS
Activity Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles
ACTDENQTRMI
ACTDENHALFMI
ACTDEN1MI
Job-Population Balance within ¼, ½, and 1 miles
JOBPOPBALQTRMI
JOBPOPBALHALFMI
JOBPOPBAL1MI
Land Use Entropy (Mix) within ¼, ½, and 1 miles
ENTROPYQTRMI
ENTROPYHALFMI
ENTROPY1MI
Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 10, 20 and 30 Minute Auto Trip
PCTREGEMP10MINA
PCTREGEMP20MINA
PCTREGEMP30MINA
Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 30 Minute Transit Trip
PCTREGEMP30MINT
Intersection Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles
INTDENQTRMI
INTDENHALFMI
INTDEN1MI
Percent of 4-way Intersections within ¼, ½, and 1 miles
PCT4WAYINTQTRMI
PCT4WAYINTHALFMI
PCT4WAYINT1MI
Transit Stop Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles
TRANSSTOPDENQTRMI
TRANSSTOPDENHALFMI
TRANSSTOPDEN1MI
Rail Stops within a ½ mile
RAILTRANSSTOPHALFMI
Activity Density
(Jobs + Pop) / Developed Area
Employment Access
Within 10 minute auto trip
Job Population Balance
1-ABS(EMP-0.2*POP)/(EMP+0.2*POP)
Intersection Density
Within a quarter mile
Percent 4-Way Intersections
Within a quarter mile
Transit Stop Density
Within a quarter mile
Rail Stop Density
Within a quarter mile
Land Use Mix
Within a quarter mile
HH VMT
Vehicle Trips
Walk Trips
Bike Trips
Transit Trips
Web-based ET+
In Development



As easy as Google Maps
No costly licenses or fast
computers required for
users
Many uses:

Real-time zoning
administration

Direct local feedback on
forecasts or plans

Live workshops with technical
audience

Scenario development on
mobile devices
http://et.tacc.utexas.edu/etmap.html

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