Research and Development in the FY 2010 Federal Budget

Report
Federal R&D Budget:
Context and Current
State of Play
Matt Hourihan
September 27, 2014
for the National Association of Graduate-Professional
Students
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policyprogram
Why Does the Federal R&D
Budget Matter?
National R&D by Funder
Expenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars
$500
$450
$400
Other
$350
$300
Industry
$250
Federal
$200
$150
$100
$50
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
$0
Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on
GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS
National R&D by Funder
Share of total expenditures
100%
90%
80%
Other
70%
60%
Industry
50%
Federal
40%
30%
20%
10%
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0%
Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on
GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS
Character of R&D By Funder, 2011
Expenditures in billions of dollars
$300
$250
Development
$200
Applied
Research
$150
$100
Basic Research
$50
$0
Federal
Industry
Other
Source: NSF, National Patterns of R&D Resources survey. © 2014 AAAS
Interaction Between Public and
Industrial R&D
 Industrial R&D projects often draw on public research findings,
instruments, techniques
 Many industry operatives place high value on info about public
research
 Fair evidence for public research as complement to/inducer of
private R&D and innovation
 Workforce, networks, spillovers
Some sources: Cohen, Nelson, Walsh, Management Science, Vol. 48, No. 1, Jan. 2002; Salter and Martin, Research
Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, March 2001; Toole, Research Policy, Vol. 41, No 1, Feb. 2012; Blume-Kohout, Journal of
Policy Analysis and Mgmt, Vol 31, No. 3, Summer 2012
University R&D Funding by Source
expenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars
$70
Other Sources
$60
$50
Institutional
Funds
$40
Industry
$30
$20
$10
$0
Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2014 AAAS
State and Local
Federal
Recent (and Not-So-Recent)
History
Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy
Outlays as share of total, 1962 - 2015
14.0%
2.5%
12.0%
2.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
1.5%
1.0%
R&D as a Share
of GDP (Right
Scale)
4.0%
0.5%
2.0%
0.0%
R&D as a Share
of the Federal
Budget (Left
Scale)
0.0%
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2015. FY 2015 is the President's request. © 2014 AAAS
 There is no actual R&D budget and only limited coordination
of “the R&D budget”
 We don’t know what funding levels are optimal
 “Politics is who gets what, when, and how.” - Harold Lasswell
 “Budgeting is about values, and it’s about choices.” – Rep.
Rosa DeLauro
BCA takes
effect: first
year of caps
Sequestration
kicks in
(delayed and
reduced by the
American
Taxpayer Relief
Act)
Yearlong budget
warfare resolved
by Bipartisan
Budget Act
(restores some
funding in FY14,
sets table for
FY15)
Current Year: Where Are We?
 Some discretionary funding restored
 but this only keeps things flat
 President’s budget released in March
 Flat funding overall
 Limited prioritization (low-carbon energy,
neuroscience, advanced manufacturing, highspeed rail, NASA industry partnerships,
extramural ag research)
 Extra funding proposed & ignored
 House: 7 of 12 bills passed; Senate: none
FY 2015 R&D Appropriations by Select Spending Bill
Estimated funding as a percent of FY 2012, in constant dollars
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Dept. of
Defense S&T
2012
Commerce,
Justice,
Science
2013
2014
Energy &
Water
Agriculture
2015 Request
Interior and
Environment
2015 House
Labor, HHS,
Education*
2015 Senate
*Not yet introduced in House.
FY 2012 = 100%. Source: AAAS analyses of agency budget documents and appropriations bills and reports. FY 2014 figures
are current estimates. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2014 AAAS
Agency Notes
 DOE: differing takes on ITER, climate research, renewables
and efficiency v. fossil fuels
 NASA: Appropriations way above request; varying numbers in
many places (Earth, Planetary, Astro, Aero); exploration
funding?
 NSF: Social and geo targeted
 NOAA climate research cut in House; boosts for NIST labs
 Biodefense facility funding for DHS
Looking Ahead
 Continuing resolution
 Lame duck omnibus?
 FY 2016 and beyond – back to “postsequester” levels
 What it all means: very tight fiscal
room, broad-based growth unlikely
 But growth in targeted programs?
Federal Nondefense R&D Under Various Scenarios
billions of constant 2014 dollars
$85
$80
$75
$70
$65
$60
$55
Original BCA/ATRA Caps
Actual Spending
Recovery Act
Post-Sequestration
Ryan/Murray Deal Changes
President's Request
Source: AAAS R&D reports and analyses of agency and legislative documents. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the
FY 2015 request. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © AAAS 2014
For more info…
[email protected]
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd
-budget-and-policy-program

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