OG_2011_2030_May29_2013v3

Report
Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for
the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)
Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph Morris
ENVIRON International Corporation
Zac Adelman
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Template
3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, CO
May 28, 2013
Purpose
• To develop oil and gas emissions for the 2011 year and
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the WRAP Phase III Basins plus other areas in Colorado,
Utah and Wyoming to support Photochemical Grid
Model (PGM) modeling
To develop future year oil and gas emissions out to 2030
for PGM modeling
To improve oil and gas emissions for uncertain source
categories
– For example, fracing, completions and shale oil and gas
• To improve oil and gas emissions for areas in CO, UT and
WY outside of the WRAP Phase III Basins
– For example, Paradox, Raton and Big Horn Basins
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3SAQS Oil and Gas Emissions Approach
• Near-Term – Develop 2011 and Future Year Oil and Gas
(O&G) Emissions by Fall 2013
– Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G Emissions Based on Readily
Available Data (Sep 2013)
– Phase 1B: Estimate Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions
Based on Readily Available Data (Nov 2013)
• Longer-Term – Improve 2011 and Future Year O&G
Emissions (Oct 2013 - Apr 2014)
– Phase 2A: Surveys and Other O&G Inventory Refinements
– Phase 2B: Refine 2011 O&G Emission Estimates
– Phase 3: Refined Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions and
White Paper on Consideration for Improved FY Projections
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Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions
• Develop 2011 O&G emissions following Phase III
methodology for:
– D-J, Piceance, NSJ, Uinta, SWWY, PRB, Wind River Basins
• Start with CO/UT/WY 2011 state data (“permitted”)
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CO APENs data (includes Raton Basin except NM)
UT data unknown (includes Paradox Basin)
WY data reported complete (includes Big Horn Basin)
EPA data for Tribes (minor source reporting?)
• Survey Based Sources starting with 2008 WestJump:
– Develop 2008 to 2011 O&G activity scaling factors from IHS
database: spuds, well count, gas, condensate and oil production
– Controls analysis similar to WestJumpAQMS (“light”)
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Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (continued)
• Colorado Phase III Basins (D-J, Piceance and NSJ)
– Forecast survey-based categories from 2008
WestJump based on O&G growth with “light” controls
analysis
– Obtain 2011 APEN sources from CDPHE
 Includes Raton Basin
• Wyoming Phase III Basins (SWWY, Wind River and
PRB)
– Obtain 2011 O&G emissions from WDEQ that includes
all sources
 Includes Big Horn Basin
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Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (concluded)
• Utah Phase III Basins (Uinta)
– Obtain 2010 data from UT BLM Air Resource
Management Strategy (ARMS) and evaluate
data/surveys
– Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WJ
– Obtain major and minor permitted source data from
UDEQ and EPA (Tribal Data) (includes Paradox)
• Develop SMOKE-ready O&G emission inputs
– IDA files
– Spatial surrogates
– Speciation (existing Phase III based on 2006 surveys)
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Phase 1B: Estimate FY 2012-2030 O&G EI
• Basin-level projections five surrogate parameters
– Spuds, wells, oil, condensate and gas production
• Develop three simple projection scenarios for each
activity surrogate and Basin
– Low Development: Continued decline to some “floor” level
– High Development: Either continued growth or pick-up of
growth following previous historic growth rate
– Median Development: Either flat-lining or delayed growth after
some number of years
• Project cooperators will decide on which of the three
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scenarios to apply for each Basin for each parameter
Forecasts will be made for just one scenario
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Phase 1B: FY 2012-2030 O&G EI (concluded)
• “Light” controls analysis like WestJump to account for
changes in O&G emissions due to regulations
– For example, State-specific regulations; EPA Subpart OOOO;
EPA NSPS for spark-ignited engines; EPA off-road diesel Tier
standards
• SMOKE-ready inputs for one FY from 2012-2030
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Phase 1A and 1B Scope of Work
• Task 1 – IHS Database Analysis: Extract historical O&G production
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data from HIS database for all Basins
Task 2 – Permit Data Analysis: Obtain and analyze permit data on
O&G emissions from CO, WY and UT
Task 3 – Controls Analysis: Analyze 2011 controls on O&G sources
Task 4 – Develop 2011 Emissions: Generate 2011 O&G emissions
Task 5 – Emissions Processing: Generate SMOKE-ready 2011 O&G
emissions
Task 6 – FY Projections: Develop FY growth for O&G activity
Task 7 – FY Controls Analysis: Develop control factors 2012-2030
Task 8: – FY Emissions Development: Develop 2012-2030 O&G
emissions for one growth scenario
Task 9 – FY Emissions Processing: Develop SMOKE-ready emissions
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for one FY from 2012-2030
Phase 2A: Surveys and Inventory Refinements
• Survey Methodology:
– Surveys targeted for information for specific uncertain
targeted source categories
– Target a few large operators that dominate a Basin
– Surveys may be equipment type and/or well type
rather than Basin-specific
– Survey to be populated with defaults prior to
distribution
– Operator outreach would be performed
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Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (continued)
• Survey Targeted Source Categories:
– Source categories not included in WRAP Phase III
 For example, fracing/completion engines, produced water,
compressor seals, etc.
– Gas composition analysis
 by well type, venting and flashing
– Source categories with high degree of uncertainty
 For example, well blowdowns, well workover rigs, initial well
completions, etc.
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Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (concluded)
• O&G Inventory Refinements:
– Develop VOC speciation profiles for glycol dehydrators
from state permit data (GLYCalc runs)
 Obtain GLYCalc speciated output from state
– Check availability of inventory data for pipelines
currently missing in inventory
– Optional Task: Develop survey-based Raton and
Paradox Basin O&G emissions
 Option 1: Survey for unpermitted sources
 Option 2: No survey, analysis of existing data
 Option 3: Use EPA default tool
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Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G Emissions
• Incorporate information from Phase 2A into
Phase 1A 2011 O&G emissions
• Update Williston and Great Plains Basins with
O&G emissions from BLM Montana/Dakotas
study
• Update O&G in Basins in Three-State area not
included in WRAP Phase III study or Phase 1A
2011 O&G inventory
– Raton and Paradox Basins
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Phase 3: Refined FY 2012-2030 O&G Projections
• Develop White Paper on approaches for making refined
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FY projections to be worked out with Cooperators before
implementing any refinements in the projections
• Refine Phase 3 Technical Approach
Future year projections using refined 2011 O&G emission
estimates developed in Phase 2B
Incorporate information from surveys including updates
to Phase 1B control factors
– Update targeted source categories and regions
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Phase 3: Refined FY Projections (concluded)
• Refined O&G activity surrogate projections
– By Basin by category unit-level
– Incorporate data from BLM on resource availability
 Review available BLM RFDs/AQTSDs on FY O&G
– Review trends forecasts for five surrogates (IHS)
– Review other available information on limits of
production/wells/drilling
 For example, reservoir capacity, regulations, etc.
 Industry funded studies, states, USGS, etc.
– For well count projections, same split as current well type
– Develop growth rates for potential new plays
 For example Niobrara (D-J) and Mancos (SSJ) Shale Oil
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Schedule for Task 2013-5 2011 & FY O&G EI
• Assumes a July 1, 2013 start date
Deliverable
Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G emissions based on readily available data
Phase 1B: Estimate future year 2012-2030 O&G emissions based on
readily available data
Phase 2A: Surveys and other inventory refinements
Phase 2B: Refined 2011 emissions estimates
Phase 3: Refined future year 2012-2030 annual emissions estimates
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2013
2014
MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ
Phase 1A: 2011 O&G EI – Sep 2013
Phase 1B: 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Nov 2013
Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements – Dec 2013
Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G EI – Mar 2014
Phase 3: Refined 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Apr 2014
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