Report

Valuation DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL, DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS, & MULTIPLES MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model MU Investment Club Spring 2013 4-Step Process 1) Project Free Cash Flow 2) Discount Free Cash Flows 3) Calculate Perpetuity Value 4) Put it all together MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Step 1: Project Free Cash Flows Free Cash Flow = EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital Capital Expenditure MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Step 2: Discount Free Cash Flows Discount Rate is usually equal to or near the company’s WACC, but can be adjusted based on other risk factors Discounted Free Cash Flow = Free Cash Flow /(1+discount rate or WACC)^# years For example: If the discount rate is 10% and in the 3rd year the predicted free cash flow is $20,000, the discounted cash flow for that year will be: $20,000/(1.1)^3= $15,026.30 MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Step 3: Calculate Perpetuity Value Most DCFs only project 5 or 10 years into the future and then use a perpetuity value to account for the rest of the time Perpetuity values are usually between 1-3% Perpetuity Value = (final free cash flow * (1 + perpetuity rate) / (discount rate – perpetuity rate) For example: If the 10th year’s free cash flow was $300, with a discount rate of 8% and a perpetuity rate of 2%, then the perpetuity value would be: ($300*1.02) / (8%-2%) = $5,100 MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Step 4: Put it all together 1) Add together discounted cash flows 2) Discount perpetuity value 3) Add discounted cash flows to discounted perpetuity value 4) Divide that sum by # shares outstanding to find the per share value of the company MU Investment Club Spring 2013 DCF Equations Free Cash Flow = EBIT(1-Tax Rate) + Depreciation & Amortization - Change in Net Working Capital Capital Expenditure Discounted Free Cash Flow = Free Cash Flow / (1+discount rate)^# years Perpetuity Value = (final free cash flow * (1 + perpetuity rate)) / (discount rate – perpetuity rate) Discounted Perpetuity Value = Perpetuity Value / (1 + discount rate) ^ # year MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Dividend Discount Models MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Dividend Discount Models Stable Dividend Discount Two-Stage Model Use for firms with long Use for firms going term stable growth MU Investment Club Spring 2013 through a period of high growth and then expect long term stable growth Stable Dividend Discount Model DPS(1): Total Annual Dividends per Share expected one year forward K: Discount Rate (or Required Rate of Return) g: Dividend Growth Rate Value of Stock = DPS(1) / (K – g) For example, if DPS in one year is expected to be $1.20, the discount rate is 9%, and growth is 6%, the value of the stock = $1.20/ (9%-6%) = $40.00 MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Two-Stage Model Like a DCF using DPS instead of Free Cash Flow Stage 1: Project future dividends DPS * (1+high growth rate) Discount Projected Dividends Stage 2: Find Perpetuity Value DPS(final) / (discount rate – long-term growth rate) Discount Perpetuity Value Add Discounted Projected Dividends and Discounted Perpetuity Values together to arrive at the Value of the Stock MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Two-Stage Model Example DPS(0)= $1.00; Discount Rate = 12%; High-Growth Rate = 30%; Long-Term Growth Rate = 6%; HighGrowth Period = 4 years Stage 1: DPS(1) = $1.00 * 1.3= $1.30 / (1.12)^1 = $1.16 DPS(2) = $1.00 * 1.3= $1.69 / (1.12)^2 = $1.35 DPS(3) = $1.00 * 1.3= $2.20 / (1.12)^3 = $1.56 DPS(4) = $1.00 * 1.3= $2.86 / (1.12)^4 = $1.82 Sum of Projected Discounted Dividends = $5.89 MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Two-Stage Model Example DPS(0)= $1.00; Discount Rate = 12%; High-Growth Rate = 30%; Long-Term Growth Rate = 6%; HighGrowth Period = 4 years; DPS(4) = $2.86 Stage 2: DPS(4) = $2.86 / (12%-6%) = $47.67 Perpetuity Value Discounted = $47.67 / (1.12)^4 =$30.30 Value of Stock =$30.30 + $5.89 = $36.19 MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Multiples MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Price to Earnings (P/E) Price of a share of stock to the most recent annual earnings per share Historical P/E: based on an average of historical P/E Competitor P/E: based on a market cap weighted average of competitor P/E Forward P/E: what some analyst thinks the P/E will be in the future based on his stock price and earnings estimates Generally used to predict the future price of the stock based off of projected earnings per share MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Price to Book Price of a share of stock to book value per share of stock Book value is the difference between the book value of assets and the book value of liabilities, so is heavily dependent on accounting practices Commonly used when valuing financial institutions MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Example of How Multiples Work To use a multiple, simply multiply the multiple by expected EPS, expected free cash flow per share, expected sales, book value per share, or whatever else the multiple is measuring For example, if expected EPS is $1.15 and the P/E multiple that is most fitting is 9.57, the expected future value of the stock will be $1.15 * 9.57 = $11.01. MU Investment Club Spring 2013 Enterprise Value Enterprise Value (EV) is the theoretical price a company could be acquired for by buying all the outstanding equity and paying off debts EV = Equity Value + Net Debt + Noncontrolling (Minority) Interests + Preferred Stock + Capital Leases Equity Value: calculated as current stock price multiplied by diluted shares outstanding Net Debt: total debt minus cash and cash equivalents MU Investment Club Spring 2013 EV/EBITDA To use an EV/EBITDA multiple, you essentially reverse engineer the way the multiple is calculated. Determine appropriate model based on historical or competitor averages Multiply EV/EBITDA multiple by the forecasted EBITDA for desired year Subtract estimated values of capital leases, minority interests, preferred stock, and net debt to arrive at a new Equity Value Divide the new Equity Value by diluted shares outstanding to arrive at the price per share MU Investment Club Spring 2013 For More Information: DCF: http://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/course.asp?docId=145102& page=1&CN=COM Dividend Discount: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/articles/dd m.htm Multiples: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/damodaran2ed/ch8.pd f EV/EBITDA: http://macabacus.com/valuation/enterprise-value MU Investment Club Spring 2013