European Light Commercial Vehicle Production Outlook * SMMT

Report
European Light Commercial Vehicle Production Outlook –
SMMT Open Forum
Ian Henry, AutoAnalysis
March 30, 2011
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brandline are trademarks of SMMT Ltd
5 categories of Light Commercial Vehicles made in Europe
Microvans
Medium vans
Small vans
Large vans
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Pick-up trucks
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Market dominated by joint product development &
manufacturing arrangements
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Traditionally c2-2.5mn LCVs made in Europe pa, incl. commercial versions of cars
Market supplied almost entirely with local production – limited imports
Alliances are a key feature of market, with some VMs having >1 alliance:
• Fiat with PSA, and with GM
• PSA with Fiat, and Mitsubishi
• Renault with GM, Nissan and Mercedes
• Mercedes with VW and Renault …
Over 1/3 European LCVs supplied through alliances
5 main segments:
• Microvans, eg Peugeot Bipper
• Small vans, eg Ford Transit Connect
• Medium vans, eg Vauxhall Vivaro
• Large vans, eg Fiat Ducato
• Pick-up trucks, eg Nissan Navarra
VW adding pick-up production to European offering – the first European VM to make a
purpose-built pick-up
Chinese, through Chery and Great Wall, will add LCV production in Europe
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Significant dip in 2009 production – recovery unlikely to exceed 2007 peak; some
PSA/Renault/Fiat production shifting to South America and Russia …
LCV Production in Europe, 2007-2015
Skoda
3000000
Volkswagen
2500000
Dacia
Nissan
2000000
Units
Renault
PSA
1500000
LDV
1000000
Hyundai-Kia
GM
500000
Ford
Fiat
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Years
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2012
2013
2014
2015
Daimler
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Daimler
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Currently has two vans, Viano/Vito medium van made in Spain, and Sprinter large
van made in Germany
• Sprinter also supplied to Volkswagen as Crafter and has been supplied to Dodge
and Freightliner in low volume for US market
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Will source Mercedes version of Kangoo from Renault to give it a small van –
previous offering in small vans (Vaneo based on A-class) was not a success
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Recently announced a production JV with GAZ in Russia, to make Sprinter for local
market:
• Timing to be confirmed
• Initial volume 25,000 pa
• This will be Mercedes’ initial route into Russia; car production in Russia not
currently scheduled
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Fiat
• Widest range of LCVs, mostly made in JVs with PSA:
• Microvans: Fiat Fiorino, made by Tofas in Turkey, JV with PSA
• Small van: Fiat Doblo, made by Tofas; will build version for Opel/Vauxhall
under contract
• Medium van: Fiat Scudo, made by Sevel Nord, French-based arm of PSA JV
• Large van: Fiat Ducato, made by Sevel Sud, Italian-based arm of PSA JV
• Iveco Daily: heavy duty large van, made in Italy and Spain
• Production in Russia highly likely in new Fiat factory, to replace low volume
kit production at local assemblers
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Ford
• Only major European VM without an alliance in LCVs
• Transit van is, arguably, the most iconic van in Europe, certainly in UK:
• Mostly now made in Kocaeli, Turkey; major investment for new model
– crosses medium and large van sub-segments
• Limited production of chassis-cabs in UK
• Transit Connect small van currently make in Turkey:
• Production to shift to Romania
• Transit Connect is one of three candidates to be next New York City
taxi:
• Could boost new model production in Craiova, or lead to US
production
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GM
• Heavily reliant on Renault for most of its presence in LCVs:
• Medium Vivaro van made in joint development and manufacturing
programme with Renault; production of new model secured for
Luton, saving the factory, starting in 2013; but new van
programme will only see Vauxhall/Opel models made in Luton –
no Renaults or Nissans
• Large Movano van sourced on OEM basis from Renault (rebadged
version of Master)
• Still makes own small van: Combo, based on Corsa:
• However, for new model, GM is switching Combo van replacement
to a modified version of Fiat Doblo from the Tofas plant in Turkey
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PSA
• Mix of own vehicle programme and JVs with Fiat
• Microvan: Citroen Nemo/Peugeot Bipper, made by Tofas in Turkey, JV
with Fiat
• Small van: Citroen Berlingo/Peugeot Partner, self-developed
programme, made in Spain; will add EV version with Mitsubishi electric
powertrain; CKD arrangement in Turkey, full production also in Brazil –
both leading to fall in Spanish production
• Medium van: Citroen Jumpy/Peugeot Expert, made by Sevel Nord,
French-based arm of Fiat JV
• Large van: Citroen Jumper/Peugeot Boxer, made by Sevel Sud, Italianbased arm of Fiat JV
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Renault-Nissan-Dacia
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Renault:
• Small van: Kangoo, formerly supplied to Nissan as Kubistar, also to
be supplied to Mercedes (name unknown)
• Medium van: Trafic, currently made in Spain and UK, switching to
France for new model; joint development programme with GM
• Large van: Master, also supplied to GM and Nissan on OEM basis
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Nissan now going down a partially independent path in LCVs:
• Formerly sourced all European vans from Renault
• But Nissan Spain now making own small-medium van (NV200) and
will also make new pick-up truck
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Dacia: new factory in Morocco will add small van from 2013 … details
awaited
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VW group
• Small van: Caddy, made in Poland, based on old Golf platform
• Medium van: Transporter, mostly made in Germany, with
chassis cab versions made in Poland; also made in minibus and
coach versions in Germany
• Large van: Crafter sourced from Mercedes on OEM basis
• Pick-up truck: developed Amarok for South American market;
will add European production in 2012, the first European VM to
make a purposed-designed pick-up in Europe
• Skoda also makes low volume Praktik van, based on Fabia, mostly
for domestic market
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In summary … European LCV production ...
• Is characterised by joint production arrangements, some full JVs (Fiat-PSA),
some pure OEM supply (Mercedes for VW, Renault for Mercedes)
• Will see more alliances like these in the years ahead
• Is dominated by European brands – Nissan apart, the Japanese have largely
stayed away from this market; and probably will stay away, because of
entrenched nature of European suppliers and better opportunities elsewhere
• Chinese will appear at the margins, in small vans and cheap pick-up trucks,
while Hyundai will aim for a slice of Turkish/Near East market with a Turkish
production JV
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