New England`s Power System: At a Crossroads

Report
JUNE 16, 2014 | STOWE, VT
New England’s Power System:
At a Crossroads – Again!
NECPUC Symposium:
Governors’ Infrastructure Initiative Panel
Stephen Rourke
VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING
Overview of Presentation
• Historical Perspective
• Strategic Planning Initiative Update
• Recent Planning Tools
• Integrating Renewables
• Resource Performance and Flexibility
• Retirements
• Gas Dependence
2
Familiar Doctor’s Office Pain Chart Will
Help Us Assess Grid Challenges Today
No
Pain
0
Distressing
Pain
1
2
3
4
5
Unbearable
Pain
6
7
8
9
10
Choose the Face that Best Describes How You Feel
0
No Hurt
2
Hurts Little Bit
4
Hurts Little More
6
Hurts Even More
8
Hurts Whole Lot
10
Hurts Worst
3
Difficult Grid Conditions Are Not New
New England’s system faced and overcame painful times
• 1970s & 1980s: Oil embargos
• 1980s: Rapid load growth plus resource
performance issues and capacity shortages
• 1990s: Nuclear shutdowns and emergency
actions
• 2000s: Southwest CT reliability problems, gap
RFP and reliability agreements; cold snap
4
ISO New England’s Strategic Planning Initiative
Focused on developing solutions to the region’s top reliability risks
Reliability requires a flexible,
high-performance fleet:
•
Natural Gas Dependency
–
•
Power Plant Retirements
–
•
“Just-in-time” fuel delivery
presents an immediate risk to
reliability
New England will need new ways
to meet peak demand as aging
plants close
Renewable Resource Integration
–
Balancing variable generation
with reliability will require
changes in system operations
5
ISO Forecasting Solar and Energy Efficiency
Anticipating impacts of state policy priorities
PV Forecast Shows Significant Growth
MW
EE Flattens Annual Energy Use
GWh
2,000
155,000
1,800
1,800
150,000
1,600
1,400
145,000
1,200
1,000
140,000
800
600
135,000
500
400
130,000
200
0
Thru 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
2013
125,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
RSP14
RSP14-FCM-EEF
RSP14-FCM
6
ISO is Implementing Enhancements to Modeling
of Capacity Zones
• ISO will model up to 5 capacity zones in
the next Forward Capacity Auction
(FCA 9), in February 2015
– CT, NEMA and SEMA/RI will be
evaluated as potential
import-constrained zones
– Maine will be evaluated
as a potential export-constrained
zone
Maine
Rest of
Pool (NH,
VT,
WCMA)
NEMA
CT
SEMA/RI
7
Market Resource Alternatives
ISO conducted studies analyzing alternatives to transmission
• Studies looked at a mix of generation, load reduction and
transmission upgrades
• Vermont and New Hampshire (2011)
– About 900 MW of supply-side resources needed to resolve thermal
issues in six of the nine NH/VT study sub-areas
• Greater Hartford (2012)
– The supply-side MRA analysis shows that approximately 950 MW of
generation is required to resolve all the identified thermal needs
• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island (2014)
– Approximately 941 MW of generation/load reduction would be
required to resolve all the identified N-1 thermal needs
– Process updated to utilize a hybrid of small transmission fixes along
with generation and demand resources
8
Variable Resources are Trending Up
Wind
(MW)
Solar
(MW)
2,000
Interconnection Issues:
1,807
700
Wind resources often
interconnect in remote
areas, on weak
transmission lines, and
must grapple with
congestion
499
Existing
Proposed
Nameplate capacity of existing wind resources
and proposals in the ISO-NE Generator
Interconnection Queue; megawatts (MW).
PV thru 2013
PV in 2023
State PV interconnection
standards and lack of
control or visibility are
concerns for ISO
2014 Final Interim ISO-NE Solar PV
Forecast, based on state policies. MW
values represent nameplate ratings
9
Gas Units Fell Below Their Capacity Obligations This
Winter
• System ran with only 3,000 MW of gas-fired generation out of
11,000 MW with obligations in the capacity market
• Assuming winter 2013/14 weather, this condition existed on 20 days
10
Generator Non-Price Retirement Requests
Almost 3,400 MW of generation plan to retire within the next five years
Major Retirement Requests:
•
Total MW Retiring in New England*
Connecticut
Salem Harbor Station (749 MW)
– 4 units (coal & oil)
Maine
•
Vermont Yankee Station (604 MW)
– 1 unit (nuclear)
New Hampshire
•
Norwalk Harbor Station (342 MW)
– 3 units (oil)
Rhode Island
Brayton Point Station (1,535 MW)
– 4 units (coal & oil)
Total
•
Other Retirements Looming
Massachusetts
Vermont
348 MW
37 MW
2,360 MW
1 MW
13 MW
634 MW
3,393 MW
*Megawatts based on relevant Forward Capacity Auction (FCA)
summer qualified capacity (NOTE: total includes full and partial
generator Non-Price Retirement (NPR) requests for Capacity
Commitment Period (CCP) 2013-2014 through CCP 2017-2018;
does not include NPRs for demand response (DR) resources)
Source: Status of Non-Price Retirement Requests; October 23, 2013
11
Generator Proposals in the ISO Queue
Almost 7,000 MW
By Type
Pumpedstorage
hydro, 50,
1%
Biomass,
138, 2%
By State
Solar, 10,
0%
Oil, 245,
4%
Hydro,
12, 0%
Wind,
2,067,
30%
MA,
3,367,
49%
VT, 191,
3%
NH, 154,
2%
Natural
gas,
4,340,
63%
Note: Some natural gas include dual-fuel units (oil)
ME,
1,437,
21%
CT, 1,713,
25%
Source: ISO Generator Interconnection Queue (April 2014)
FERC Jurisdictional Only
12
Conclusions
Some good news
Some not so good news
• State policies are bringing energy
efficiency and renewables onto
the system
• New England has a growing
reliability problem due to natural
gas availability constraints and
declining resource performance
• A lot of activity in the
interconnection queue
• Transmission for reliability helps
ease some retirement concerns
• New England has a proven history
of overcoming energy and
capacity challenges
• Expected non-gas retirements will
increase demands on an already
constrained natural gas system
• Major market enhancements and
energy infrastructure
improvements are years away
13
14

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