Progress 8 Slides - Cambridge Area Partnership

Report
Case for Change
Current system
A school is below the floor if < 40% of pupil achieve 5A*-C including
English and maths and pupils make below average (expected) progress in
English and Maths

The current system is easy to understand, but contains three perverse
incentives:
 Wolf Review identified that it encourages schools to enter pupils for
poor quality ‘easier to pass’ qualifications;
 It can encourage an excessive focus on pupils around the C/D grade
boundary, to the detriment of others; and
 It causes a narrow concentration on just five subjects, rather than a
broad curriculum.
Development of new measures
 New measures designed to hold schools to account for all their
pupil’s progress across a broader range of subjects. Progress 8
gives us:
– a measure of school effectiveness
– a measure that incentivise a broad and balanced curriculum with
a strong emphasis on English and Maths
– a measure which is sufficiently flexible to reflect pupils' needs
 Proposals were broadly welcomed in the DfE consultation as an
improvement to current accountability
Progress 8 / attainment 8
Attainment 8 measure
1
2
3
4
5
English
Maths
EBacc qualifications
Double-weighted*
Double-weighted
(sciences, computer science, geography,
history and languages)
*Higher score of English Language or English Literature
double-weighted if a student has taken both qualifications
6
7
8
‘Open group’
Remaining EBacc qualifications and
other approved qualifications
(GCSEs and other approved academic, arts or vocational
qualifications)
• We will calculate Progress 8 using a value added method, using KS2 English
and maths results as a baseline.
• A school will be below the floor standard if pupils make half a grade less
progress than expected across their 8 subjects.
Attainment 8 – some general rules
 English slot (double weighted*)
– Best result of English Language and English Literature counts
– English Language or English Literature on its own not double
weighted
– Lowest result of English Language and English Literature can
count in an open slot
– GCSE English can count on its own
Attainment 8 – some general rules
 Maths slot (double weighted)
– Only EBacc qualifications can contribute
– Linked pair GCSEs ‘applications of maths’ and ‘methods in
maths’. Grades added together (not best grade doubled)
– Other ‘maths’ qualifications (e.g. free-standing maths, pure
maths, statistics..) can count in an open slot ONLY if there is no
maths
Attainment 8 – some general rules
• EBacc slots
– Any Ebacc science, humanities (history or geography) or
language can count
– No stipulation about the types of Ebacc subjects which can count
(e.g. could all be science or languages)
– Double Award science can take up two slots (the only double
award that can do so)
Attainment 8 – some general rules
 Open slots
– Lowest result of English Language and English Literature can
count
– Maths qualifications that are not part of the EBacc can count but
only if the maths slot is not filled
– Asset Languages at level 3 can count but only if the pupil does
not have a GCSE in the same language
– One graded music exam can count either alone or alongside
GCSE music
Attainment 8 - Qualifications and points

Qualifications that appear on published 2014 – 2016 lists of high-value
qualifications accepted in Performance Tables are eligible (lists available on
Raiseonline documents library)

Points to be reported on a 1-8 scale

GCSE grade A* worth 8 points; grade G worth 1 point

Majority of qualifications converted to 1-8 scale using formula:
A8 points=(2014 point score – 10) / 6

Exceptions
– Top grade AS levels can score more than 8 points (9.5 for grade A, 8.25
for grade B, 7 for C, 5.75 for D and 4.5 for grade E)
– Graded music exams (Grade 6 and 7 passes worth 7 points; all other
Grade 6, 7 and 8 awards score 8 points)
– Free standing maths qualifications (5.75 for grade A, 5 for B, 4.25 for C,
3.5 for D, 2.75 for E)
Progress 8 – measuring prior attainment

Effectively will use the same method as in current Value added
– Restricted to KS2 results in English and maths
– Teacher assessments continue to be substituted where pupils are below
the level of the test
– Pupils with assessment scores in only one subject will have this score used
as the baseline
– Pupil will be excluded from Progress 8 if they have no KS2 assessment
(but not Attainment 8)
– Fine level used instead of current fine points (worked out in same way as
points using test marks; Fine level = Fine points / 6)
Attainment 8 – a pupil example
Qualification
Grade
Pts
GCSE English language
C
5
GCSE English literature
B
6
GCSE maths
A
7
AS level physics
C
7
GCSE physics
A*
8
GCSE biology
B
6
GCSE chemistry
B
6
GCSE history
C
5
GCSE French
D
4
GCSE art & design
E
3
BTEC level 2 diploma in sport Merit
6
English
X 2 = 12
Maths
X 2 = 14
EBacc1
EBacc2
Ebacc3
Other1
Other2
Other3
Attainment 8 score = 61
Pupil progress – example pupil
 Pupil score measured against average Attainment 8 score for pupils
nationally having same prior attainment
 Our example pupil scored 61 points for attainment 8 - just over a
grade B average across all subjects (divide score by 10 [8 subjects
with E&M double weighted])
 Pupil has fine-level scores of 4.5 in English and 5.1 in maths; an
average of 4.8
 Pupil’s score of 61 is therefore compared to the average Attainment
8 score achieved by all pupils having average prior attainment of 4.8
Pupil progress – example pupil
School Attainment 8 / Progress 8 scores
A school’s Progress 8 score is the mean average of its
pupils Progress 8 scores
• School has 120 pupils
Pupil
Att8
score
P8
score
Pupil 1 (example pupil)
61
+1.0
Pupil 2
55
-0.3
Pupil 3
34
+0.4
…
…
Pupil 119
52
+0.1
Pupil 120
64.5
-0.6
Total (sum of scores)
6,518.5
+61.4
• Attainment 8 score is 6,518.5 / 120
= 54.32 (5.4 per subject; average
grade between a B and a C)
• Progress 8 score is 61.4 / 120 =
0.512
• Published score would be +0.51
(published to two decimal places)
• Confidence intervals will show the
range of scores within which
underlying performance can be
confidently said to lie
Floor standards
 Schools will be below the floor standard if their Progress 8 score is
below -0.5 (i.e. if pupils are on average making half a grade less
progress than pupils with the same prior attainment)
 154 schools were under the current floor in 2013 (<40% of pupils
achieved 5A*-C including English and maths and pupils made below
average (expected) progress in English and maths).
 Approx 350 schools under Progress 8 floor standard based on 2013
data
What does opt in mean for schools?
 Data published in the 2015 performance tables that reflect the new
Progress 8 measures as well as the current measures
 A floor standard based on Progress 8
 Ofsted taking Progress 8 opt-in status in to account during school
inspections (data will be available to inspectors through
RAISEonline, but only for schools that have opted in)
ASCL is advising schools to wait until the shadow data is sent out in
early 2015
Planning for Progress 8
 Precise grades a pupil requires to achieve a positive Progress 8
score will not be known in advance (pupil results are compared
within the same cohort)
 There will be several sources of information to help schools plan
their teaching for individual pupils;
 FFT accountability reports (2011-2013 entry patterns and
attainment in different elements of Attainment 8)
 Transition matrices (2014 unvalidated data)
 2014 ‘shadow’ results
2014 ‘shadow’ results
 Schools will be shown their Attainment 8 and Progress 8 scores
based on 2014 exams in early 2015
– Attainment 8 score
– Attainment 8 score converted to an average grade per subject
– Progress 8 score with 95% confidence intervals
 These results will not be published in performance tables but will
help prepare schools for change in accountability system and inform
decision whether to opt in in 2015
 Pupil / school ready reckoners will be made available showing how
measures are calculated
Exercise caution using previous results
 Subject entry patterns can affect Attainment 8 scores and these
have shifted over the last few years;
– EBacc introduced in 2010 – entry into all Ebacc subject areas
rose from 21.6% in 2011 to 35.5% in 2013
– Wolf review will be implemented in 2014 in performance tables
– Early entry rules will apply in 2014
 Attainment 8 estimates may look substantially different in 2014
shadow results data compared to what we have seen in 2013
 Estimates may also change in future years as schools adapt to new
accountability measures

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