System Dynamics CoE

Report
System Dynamics Projects in
Eskom
NALINI SOOKNANAN PILLAY
HEAD: SYSTEM DYNAMICS CENTRE OF EXPERTISE
RESEARCH TESTING AND DEVELOPMENT
SUSTAINABILITY GROUP
Reducing environmental
footprint, pursuing low-C
growth opportunities
SI_4
Leading and partnering
to keep the lights on
SI_3
SI_1
Becoming a high
performance
organisation
SI_2
System Dynamics CoE
Alignment with Eskom’s Strategic Imperatives
Securing future resource
requirements, mandate
& enabling environment
System causality through causal loop
diagrams
Extend mental models into SD
simulators with feedbacks & time
delays
System
Market
Operator
Development of appropriate user
interface tools
Strategy &
Policy
Setting ourselves up for
success
SI_7
Ensuring financial
sustainability
SI_6
SI_5
Build capacity for SD simulations and
systems thinking principles
Asset
Management
Distribution
Primary
energy
IDM
Generation
and New
Build
Implementing coal
haulage and road to rail
migration plan
EAL
SI_8
Extraction of core archetypal
behaviour
Customer
Service
BUSINESS FOCUS AREAS
Research and consulting in the field
of systems thinking and system
dynamics
Pursuing private sector
participation
2
System Dynamics CoE
Language of System Dynamics
1. CAUSALITY
3. SYSTEM ARCHETYPES
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
2. TIME PATHS
Balancing loop with time delays
Reinforcing loops
Limits to growth
Fixes that fail
Tragedy of the commons
Success to the successful
Eroding goals
Shifting the burden
4. LANGUAGE
System
Time
3
System Dynamics CoE
Positioning of Eskom
“ORGANIZATIONAL
CHANGES/ DECISIONS/
POLICIES DO NOT
INSTANTLY FLOW FROM
EVIDENCE, DEDUCTIVE
LOGIC AND
MATHEMATICAL
OPTIMIZATION” EDWARD
B. ROBERTS
Systems have unique
emergent properties.
SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING
DETERMINISTIC
Water,
Tariffs,
Emissions,
etc.
IRP,
Intl. Treaties,
CO2 derivatives,
Fossil depletion,
Energy policy,
Transport &
Mobility,
Non-proliferation
of Nuclear,
Customer Behaviour,
Demand Response,
Carbon Tax etc.
Gen IV
Nuclear,
Batteries,
Smart grid,
Electric Vehicle,
Wave power,
GS Heat Pumps,
Disruptive
Technologies,
Ocean pumped storage,
Efficiency technologies,
Energy Intelligence,
Energy storage,
Mini-grids
CCS, etc.
PF Coal,
HVDC,
PWR,
FGD,
Nuclear,
Gas,
Pumped storage
etc.
System Dynamics CoE
EXAMPLES OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPLICATION
1. Eskom Technology Systems Model
2. Strategy Scenario Simulator
3. Gini Coefficient Simulator
5
System Dynamics CoE
Eskom Technology Systems Simulator: E-TechSim
CAUTION: BY RUNNING THE MODEL, YOU
HAVE NOT CONSULTED THE ORACLE!!
YOU HAVE A FLIGHT SIMULATOR TO
ENGAGE IN STRATEGIC DIALOGUES
6
System Dynamics CoE
Eskom Technology Systems Simulator: E-TechSim
7
System Dynamics CoE
Organisational Strategy: Eskom Scenario Simulator
System Dynamics CoE
Organisational Strategy: Eskom Scenario Simulator
9
System Dynamics CoE
Exploring Gini Coefficient Dynamics
10
System Dynamics CoE
Research Projects
RESEARCH AREA
PROJECTS


Strategy & Policy



Supply Dynamics
Demand
Dynamics
Skills
Development



Customer Service Index Model: Dynamics in network performance, customer
demands, the walk-in call centres and customer network centres and trouble
responses.
Green Bonds Simulator: Will assist EFC and the DBSA to understand the impact
of variations in subsidies and tax rebates on attracting players to participate in the
concept of green bonds.
Scenario Simulator: Looking at key driving forces including SADC relations.
GINI Coefficient: Sensitivity analysis and relationships between Gini coefficient
and electricity tariff increases, electricity intensity, redistributive measures (social
grants, subsidies, capital etc).
Eskom Water Simulator: Scope will include the water consumption dynamics
through Eskom generation value chain and eventually will be integrated with a
global energy model.
Plant Availability Simulator: Assemble empirical basis for linking variables such
as UCLF, PCLF, EAF; actual versus scheduled outage programs; experience level
of staff etc and its impact on outage creep.
Economic sectors: Will include a simulator that will explore the dynamics within
various economic sectors (mining & quarrying; services; agriculture; transport) and
the residential sector and its impact on the electricity industry.
Training Course
11
System Dynamics CoE
“TODAYS SOLUTIONS
ARE TOMORROWS
PROBLEMS….”
12

similar documents