1AA_Vijay_EI_MMR_Geospatial_final_annex

Report
Geo-spatial Electrification Planning
for Myanmar
Sustainable Engineering Lab
Director: Vijay Modi
Department of Mechanical Engineering (SEAS)
and
Earth Institute, Columbia University
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, November 22, 2013
1
Outline
• Rationale
• Our Approach: analysis platform for decision
making: where what technology, prioritization, nearterm decisions guided by long-term, least-cost
• Not engineering designs, but rapid planning
• Examples: village, region and national scales
• Combine International Experience + Local Expertise
• Our Project Plan and Starting Work in Myanmar
Rationale
• Organize information in a systematic digital
form
• Useful for
– Quickly budgeting
– Responding to internal and donor needs
– Transmission upgrades/generation
– Communication bet township/state/national
• Co-ordination between grid and off-grid
projects
Benefits of National Geospatial Planning
• Accelerate national access at scale:
– access and service standards can be applied consistently
– important for remote, under-served populations
• Improve allocation of investments:
– ensure on-grid generation benefits from economies of scale
– efficient targeting of off-grid systems for smaller communities
– enable rapid design and bulk procurement in roll-out
• Provide a coordinated investment framework:
– help donors & government prioritize according to local
development goals
– reduce risk for private sector investors and entrepreneurs
• NOTE: The difference between design vs. planning
4
Approach (1)
• Acquire detailed geo-spatial, cost and
technical information:
–
–
–
–
–
Demand points (settlements)
Electricity Infrastructure (MV distribution lines)
Demand level
Growth rates (population, economic)
Cost Factors (grid and off-grid, initial &
recurring)
(with off-grid)
5
Approach (2)
• Project demand and cost for a defined time-horizon:
– Apply growth rates, wealth / income mapping
• Algorithmic computation of least-cost electricity
system:
– Grid extension
– Mini- or Micro-grids (renewable, hybrid)
– Household Systems (solar)
• Generate phased Roll-Out plan for grid and distributed
systems
(with off-grid)
6
NetworkPlanner:
An Algorithmic Planning System
NetworkPlanner
How it Works
• A free, web-based tool (no license fees) Designed by our lab at the
Earth Institute
• Accepts essential local inputs of geospatial demand points, costs for
electricity technologies, growth rates and other key parameters.
• Algorithmically plans least-cost electricity systems in these steps:
1. Computes the lifetime costs (initial and recurring) for meeting
projected electricity demand at every point for all electricity options
2. Chooses the lowest-cost electricity technology for each point
3. Creates detailed map outputs for the least-cost grid and all
standalone systems.
4. Creates detailed tabular outputs describing investment needs,
recurring costs, additional generation required, and many other
planning outputs.
Kenya – The First Major Use of Geospatial Planning
Kenya / EI Electricity
Planning Project:
• Results highlighted
the need to electrify
western, under-served
areas
• Region specific
generation req. and
transmission
upgrades
• Ultimately led to major
loan 1.3B from World
Bank
9
Example: Electrification Planning
at the Regional scale
Flores, Indonesia:
6,300 settlements
in Eastern Indonesia
10
Inputs that went into access
planning
• Location of each settlements
• Population of each settlement
• Where is the existing medium-voltage network?
• Unit costs of utility infrastructure, off-grid
• New customer demand
Essential Local Contribution:
Technical and Cost Parameters
Initial Costs
Grid
Extension
$30/m MV line (with poles)
$600 Total HH connection Costs
(incl: service drop/LV line)
$200/ kVA Transformer (≥15 kVA)
$1.00/W panels (5 peak sun hours / day)
$267/kWh batteries, 5 kWh/kW
Village Solar
$100/HH for LV wire to home
$1/W BOS (electronics)
Off-Grid /
HH Solar
$2.15/W panels (5 peak sun hours/day)
$267/kWh batteries
5kWh/kW battery capacity
Recurring Costs
$0.35 / kWh "bus bar" cost
Annual O&M:
1% of line costs
3% of transformer costs
$267/kWh battery replacement
(every 3.3 years)
Annual O&M:
1% of panel cost
$267/kWh battery replacement
(every 2.5 years)
Annual O&M:
2% of panel cost
13
Example of Grid-Rollout over 20 Years
(Flores Island, Eastern Indonesia)
15
16
17
18
19
A complete electricity plan specifies locations with grid
access, mini-grids, and off-grid (solar home systems)
Total Number of Households by
Tech Type
Model results provide quantitative outputs for locations
served by all system types, with capacities and costs.
140,000
120,000
100,000
Household Solar
80,000
Village Solar Mini-Grid
60,000
Proposed Grid
40,000
Grid Connected
20,000
0
Proposed Grid: 166,000 HHs
Village Solar Mini-Grid:
84,000 HHs
Bins: Number of Households per Settlement
21
Pre-Existing Grid:
Pre-existing household grid connections (2010 Census)
170,130
Investments (250,000 new HH with elec)
Proposed New Grid Conn
Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV)
165,000
$165 Million
Village Solar Mini-Grids Conn
Total Initial cost for all Mini-Grid systems
84,000
$94 Million
Household Solar (model output)
3000
$5M
Generation Costs for Grid Connected HH
Coal + Solar + Geothermal + Wind
22
Grid: Metrics
Pre-Existing Grid:
Pre-Existing MV line length
Units
kilometers
1,505
Pre-existing connections (2010 Census)
Households
170,130
meters
8.8
Existing MV Line Length per HH
Scenario Results
Proposed MV line length
Units
kilometers
480 kWh/yr
1,934
240 kWh
94
Proposed new grid connections
Proposed MV line per new HH
Proposed Total New Capacity
Proposed New Capacity per HH
Households
meters
MW
kW
166,141
11.6
21.8
0.130
19,400
4.8
1.3
0.065
Scenario Results
Grid Costs
Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV)
for MV grid network
for LV, Svc Drop, HH wiring
Total levelized cost for Grid power
480 kWh/yr
per new
Total
HH conn.
$163,479,151
$984
$53,638,088
$323
$109,841,063
$661
$0.63 / kWh
240 kWh/yr
per new
Total
HH conn.
$14,337,188
$736
$1,904,402
$98
$12,432,786
$638
$0.72 / kWh
23
Solar Mini-Grid: Metrics
Scenario Results
Proposed Total Capacity of Mini-Grids
Proposed new mini-grid connections
Proposed Capacity per HH
480 kWh/yr 240 kWh/yr
35
49
84,430
215,840
416
225
Unit
MW
Households
W/HH
Solar Mini-Grid: Costs
Scenario Results
Total Initial cost for system
System discounted cost
Total demand met by mini-grid (in kWh)
Total levelized cost per kWH for Grid power
480 kWh/yr
per new
Total
HH conn.
$94,032,500
$1,114
$366,324,716
$4,339
502,893,767
5,956
$0.76 /kWh
240 kWh/yr
per new
Total
HH conn.
$149,769,300
$694
$509,826,782
$2,362
642,808,188
2,978
$0.83 /kWh
10% of the kWh from diesel backup for solar mini-grids brings reliability from 80% to 90%
24
Solar Home Systems: Metrics and Costs
Scenario Results
Proposed Total watts of SHS
Proposed new SHS connections
Proposed Size for each SHS
480 kWh/yr
946
2,649
356
240 kWh/yr
3,197
kW
17,907
Households
179
W/HH
kW
Households
W/HH
Solar Home Systems Solar: Costs
Scenario Results
Total Initial cost for system
System discounted cost
Total demand met by Grid (in kWh)
Total levelized cost for SHS power
480 kWh/yr
240 kWh/yr
per new HH
Total
conn.
$5,321,274
$2,009
$18,141,961
$6,849
15,778,344
5,956
$1.16 /kWh
per new HH
Total
conn.
$17,992,857
$1,005
$61,343,525
$3,426
642,808,188
35,897
$1.16 /kWh
25
Background
Population Modeling
GIS Platform
Model Results
Solar MicroGrids
Talking Points
Cost per Household (US$)
Marginal costs of grid connections can
increase with roll-out
$2,000
High
$1,500
Low
Mini-grid
$1,000
$500
$0
+20,000
+40,000
+40,000
+40,000
+30,000
Number of New Households Connected
26
Mini-Grid Rollout:
An example prioritizing higher demand villages
Planning at Township Level
Mini-grid
Solar home
System
Grid?
Solar
Mini
Grid
Algorithm Results
Technology Options
Grid Rollout:
An example prioritizing most cost-effective branches
Investment in MV
line per connection
(meters shown)
Phase 1
< 20
Phase 2
20 – 25
Phase 3
> 25
Incremental Infrastructure
• one could start local and where/when
demand grows and grid comes closer connect
to the grid
• Keeps initial investments small and modular
• Does not strain utility immediately
• Allows demand grows and entrepreneurship
to emerge organically
Our Project Plan
• The Earth Institute’s approach to
Electrification Planning in Myanmar will
include three phases with an in-country
workshop roughly marking each phase, as
outlined below.
Our Project Plan
1. Data Gathering
– Milestone 1: Inception Workshop
– Deliverable 1: Inception Report
– Milestone 2: Formation of a GIS dataset with
acceptable resolution of population and MV
network representation
– Deliverable 2: Interim Report
Our Project Plan
2. Demand Analysis & Quantify Supply Needed
– Milestone 3: Workshop on Initial Results
– Deliverable 3: Draft Final Geospatial Rollout Plan
3. Final Scaled-Analysis and Knowledge
Transfer
– Milestone 4: Final Results Workshop
– Milestone 5: GOM feedback on Draft Report
– Deliverable 4: Final Geospatial Rollout Plan &
accompanying datasets developed
Starting Work For Myanmar:
Data Sets Needed for Electricity Modeling
• Settlement Data from Village or Village Tracts
– Locations
– Populations
• Existing Grid Distribution Data
– map or digital file for medium-voltage lines
• Other drivers
– Supply options, current/future
– Demand/hh, population and demand growth,
– unit costs of options
Village locations within Village Tracts
Village Tract data may be
supplemented in some cases
Electrification Planning benefits
from village level data.
Settlement Data
• From MOLFRD, DRD
• Village location and population, 2001
• In absence of more recent data, an excellent
starting point
• Project to future
• Can we updated as
new figures become
available
EXAMPLE: State: Magway Township: Pakoku
Existing distribution grid
• Transmission Lines
– Available through MEPE, up to 66 kV
• Medium Voltage lines, ESE, YESB
– 33 kV and 11 kV lines
– Currently not available in digital geo-spatial form
– ESE is compiling paper/scan images from all
states/regions, estimated avai: 1 month
• Smaller off-grid systems
– Expect to report later
Other drivers
• Large generation Sources
– Hydropower, HGPE (generation), DHP (planning)
• Cost of Grid Generation in the future
– Some uncertainty due to variable international
fuel supply, scale of demand growth
– JICA study
– Hydro potentials, thru MOPE
• Hydro <5MW, from ESE
• Unit costs, demand
Original:
jpeg with hand-drawn
MV lines (red)
GIS product:
shapefile with digitized
MV lines (blue)
Training and Capacity Building :
Example: Data collection with smartphones
Training and detailed work
with local electricity
technicians and managers
resulted in completion of a
detailed local medium-voltage
distribution grid map for a
region in Eastern Indonesia
Training & mapping of MV grid lines (IDN)
Training & mapping of MV grid lines (IDN)
West Timor (IDN) MV grid initial estimate
West Timor (IDN), MV grid lines following EI training & mapping
44
Approach to data
• Settlement Data valuable for electricity, gas,
roads, water, and other services
• Tools to gather and “maintain” data.
• How to rapidly capture planning grade data
for existing lines
• Work closely with Government/Utility to
embed tools/processes in their systems
Working with Ministries, Utilities, Enterprises
• We would like to begin here in Nay Pyi Taw, possibly
following up in other regions or offices. We ask your
permission and support
• Our plan and approach is to work side-by-side with local
experts and practitioners to ensure the relevance,
completeness and accuracy of all data and outputs.
• Workshop tomorrow

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