Constitutional Reform - Hong Kong Transition Project

Report
Constitutional Reform:
Confrontation looms as
Hong Kong consults
April 2014
Michael E. DeGolyer
Professor, Government & International Studies HKBU
Director, Hong Kong Transition Project
18 Dec 2013-1 Jan 2014
• 1007 permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone
• +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval
• Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project,
supported by a grant from the Community Development
Initiative
Hong Kong Transition Project
Is the System Working?
Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with life in Hong Kong?
2003-04 vs 2014
Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong
BY Age groups/BY Occupation
Majorities dissatisfied under 40,
Managers & Admin, Professionals,
Students
The skills we need &
The future
Currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the
performance of the SAR Government
From unrest, to no
unrest, back to
unrest?
Circles same size,
Same height
Neither Tung nor
Leung had
majority satisfied
Satisfied with performance of SAR
Government BY Age/BY Occupation
Students highly dissatisfied
Under 40s
overwhelmingly
dissatisfied
Satisfaction with performance of SAR
Gov dealing with PRC Gov
2004 was peak
dissatisfaction
(when Tung did
not leave)
2014
dissatisfaction
same level as
June 2004
Currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the
performance of the PRC Gov in dealing with
HKSAR Affairs?
Dissatisfaction with PRC peaked when Tung appeared
supported by PRC Government, dropped as soon as Tung
was clearly on way out
Satisfaction with PRC Gov handling of
SAR affairs BY Age/BY Occupation
Students, Associate professionals
highly unsatisfied
Under 40s highly dissatisfied
Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the
performance of the PRC Gov in ruling China?
Unprecedented
dissatisfaction
since 1997
founding of
SAR starts in
2010, with
constitutional
reforms
Satisfied with the performance of the PRC Gov in
ruling China BY Age/BY Occupation
Students & Associate
Professionals high
dissatisfaction rates
Under 40s majority dissatisfied
Satisfied PRC Gov rule of China/BY
Satisfied with life in Hong Kong/BY
Satisfied performance of SAR Gov
Even stronger
correlation of
Satisfaction with PRC
rule of China and
Satisfaction with SAR
Gov performance
Strong correlation of
Satisfaction with PRC gov
rule of China and Satisfaction
with life in Hong Kong
Satisfied PRC rule of China BY Satisfied
PRC handling of SAR affairs
Stronger correlation between
Satisfaction with PRC rule of China and
Satisfaction with PRC handling of SAR
affairs
Satisfied PRC rule of China BY Satisfied
with CY Leung’s performance
Strongest correlation of
Satisfaction with PRC
rule of China and
Satisfaction with CY
Leung’s performance
Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance
BY Age/BY Occupation
Extreme dissatisfaction levels for
students, professionals, educators,
associate professionals, clerks,
managers & administrators
Overwhelming dissatisfaction
among those under 40
Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance
BY Which party represents you best
Fairness in
policy-making
BY satisfaction
with Leung’s
performance
DAB very unrepresentative of public
How much do you believe that CY Leung:
How much do you believe CY Leung will
implement fair Chief Executive election in 2017
BY Age/By Occupation
Students extreme, other
occupations very high
disbelief
Extreme levels of disbelief under 30
Why are so many people so
dissatisfied and disbelieving?
Which problem
of Hong Kong
are you most
concerned about
now personally?
Political issues highest level ever
Satisfaction with Gov performance on
problem of most personal concern BY Age
Dissatisfaction extreme under 40
Hidden burdens,
unfairly distributed
• Approximately what percentage of your personal
income do you contribute to your parents?
Burden of aging highest for
under 30, but even 12%
over 60 still help their
parents
Nearly half bear aging burden with
little government help
Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong BY %
Personal income contributed to parents
Which party represents best, distribution
of Satisfaction with life in HK. Radical
parties attract most dissatisfied
Dissatisfaction with life in Hong
Kong significantly higher among
most burdened
Which is the most appropriate
description of you?
Extreme volatility of identity
indicates sharp values conflict
underway
Which is the most appropriate
description of you?
Identity is clearly in flux (previous slide) and differs greatly generationally:
“Generation GAP” profound across many variables
Which of these do you consider the most
important to you personally to see protected and
promoted?
No mention in
consultation
document of
international
standards or
pluralist
nature/heritage of
Hong Kong
Preference of Identity to Protect & Promote BY
Age
Under 40s much more
preference of Hong Kong
as pluralistic and
international
Which party represents you
best?
Pre-2010 reforms consolidated parties; post 2010 shattered parties, consensus harder
Which party represents best,
2013-2014
Small rise in pro-government support, larger rise among pro-democracy groups
Which party represents best,
BY Age
Radical parties clearly dominate under 40s, especially 18-20 (and younger)
Which party represents best,
BY Occupation
Students clearly look to Radical Democrats in large numbers, but also large “no party” group
Which party represents best,
BY Personal identity
Radical parties/Hong Kong
person identity becoming
defined in opposition. A
negative identity (“Hong
Kong is NOT like China”)
500,000+ Radicals?
• About 20% to 25% of under age 40 look to People
Power, League of Social Democrats, Neo-democrats,
Labour Party, and hard line members of Civic Party as
best representing them and protecting their interests.
Under 40s show very high levels of dissatisfaction
• About an equal proportion of those who say “no
party” best represents them (1/3 of total, about 10% of
population over 18) are equally dissatisfied as the
group above. But they feel no one best represents
them, thus no one “leads” them.
What changes to the System
are supported?
Support direct election of
Chief Executive
Overwhelming
and highest yet
recorded
support for
direct election
of the Chief
Executive
Support direct election of all
Legco members
Highest level yet
of strongly
support for
direct election of
all Legco
members
Support direct election of all Legco
members BY Age/BY Occupation
Extremely high support among
administrators & managers, professionals,
associate professionals, clerks and students
Extremely high support under 40
Summary Table on Options
Nearly two thirds oppose making the Chief Executive Election Committee,
unchanged, into the Nomination Committee
Abolishing FCs or reforming dramatically overwhelmingly supported
Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200
members as present and make it the nominating committee
for candidates for direct elections in 2017?
BY Age groups
TREND
Opposition has strengthened
significantly since 2013,
especially under age 60.
Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200
members as present and make it the nominating committee
for candidates for direct elections in 2017?
BY Occupations: Managers & Admin most strongly opposed
Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200
members as present and make it the nominating committee
for candidates for direct elections in 2017?
BY Which party represents you best
DAB/FTU supporters’
views clearly NOT
representative of majority
Support or oppose: Abolish FCs for Legco but keep them
for the CE Nominating Committee
BY Occupation
TREND
Sentiment starting to move
against abolishing FCs for Legco
but keeping for Chief Executive
Nomination Committee, esp.
among students, managers,
professions
Support or oppose: Abolish only the traditional small
circle 30 FC seats
BY Occupation
TREND
Support to abolish up,
esp. among students,
assoc. professions and
managers & admin
Support or oppose: Abolish FCs in all forms for all
purposes
BY Age
TREND
Support for complete
abolition up, especially under
age 40
Support or oppose: Replacing 30 small circle FC seats
with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC
seats
BY Age
TREND
Support down, opposition
up for replacing FCs with
“super seats” except
among youth
Support or oppose: Replacing 30 small circle FC seats
with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC
seats BY Which party represents best
However, all political
parties show
majority support
Support or oppose: Replacing all FC seats with directly
elected GC seats, half elected by first past the post single
member districts, half elected like other geographic seats?
BY Which party represents best
TREND
Support for replacing FCs with
combination of half first past post,
half proportional hit majority
overall and in all parties
Support: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate
voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the
number of voters in each constituency?
Ending corporate voting,
equalizing franchise in all
constituencies strongly supported
Support: : increasing right to vote in small circle FC
seats until all legislators represent roughly equal
constituencies?
BY Which party represents best
TREND
Increasing voters to match other FC
Legco seat franchise no longer
supported. Current Legco qualified
voting no longer acceptable.
What will they do if nothing
changes, or change is unfair?
• Within the past year express concern or seek help
from the following:
Note drop in use of
formal means of
expressing concerns
in 2002. Same drop
in 2014. Indicates
loss of confidence
in normal means of
policy feedback.
Remove protests
(PRO) & 2014 even
lower than 2002.
Do you currently support or oppose the possible
Occupy Central protest in July 2014?
Very few “Don't
Know or have not
heard of Occupy
Central
Support 41%, Oppose 59%
Of those with a view,
59% oppose. But 41%
who support are
younger, better
educated, have stronger
belief in pluralism and
internationalism
Support/Oppose Occupy Central BY
Occupation
Strong majority of students
support OC, but also
support among
professionals, assoc
professionals and managers
& administrators
Support/Oppose Occupy
Central BY Age
Majorities of teens and
20s support OC
Support/Oppose Occupy
Central BY Education
Support for OC rises
with education level
Reaction to events
•What happens to
support or opposition to
Occupy Central if . . .
Would the following make you change your mind to
support or oppose the Occupy Central protest: HK Gov
finishes consultation & issues a report before 1 July 2014?
Don't Know
responses want to
see what is in
report first.
53% opposed/25% support if report
issued (if HKGov takes action without
delay)
Versus
If Gov acts promptly
• Support for Occupy Central drops;
oppose drops less
• Don't Know increase, drawing mostly
from support Occupy Central
respondents
• Clearly respondents want to see details
of the report
Would the following make you change your mind
: All Pan-democratic parties call for support of
Occupy Central
57% opposed/39% support now
Versus
59% opposed/41% support
If pan-democrats unite
• Support for Occupy Central rises from 25-27%
hardcore support as in first two questions where
government acts promptly, to 39% with 5% Don't
Know
• But, what if pan-democrats split?
Would the following make you change your mind :
Radical democratic parties call for support of
Occupy Central
63% opposed/31% support now
Versus
59% opposed/41% support
If pan-democrats split over
reforms
• 57% opposed to Occupy Central if pan-democrats
split. 5% more Don't Know, so opposition could go
even higher depending on how and over what causes
split.
• But what if Beijing government strongly opposes
Occupy Central?
Would the following make you change your mind :
Beijing government warns against joining Occupy
Central
If Beijing interferes,
10 point drop in
opposition, a 12
point rise in support
for OC over levels
seen above if radical
democrats only
support OC
53% opposed/43% support now
Versus
59% opposed/41% support
Reactions:
• People want government to act quickly, but deliberately
and fairly taking consultation into account
• If pan-democrats all support Occupy Central, support
rises
• If pan-democrats split, support falls and opposition
rises, possibly as high as 69% opposed depending on
Don't Know reactions
• If Beijing interferes, support rises and opposition falls
just as dramatically. . .
Reactions:
• People clearly want reform settled within Hong Kong,
by Hong Kong government taking prompt but fair
action that protects key values
• They oppose pan-democratic splits
• They oppose Beijing interference
• But will they act if they feel they must?
How worried are you about violence and damage
to Hong Kong’s economy from an Occupy
Central demonstration?
A majority are very or somewhat worried
Worry about violence & damage to
economy BY Gender
Very unusually, more males than females are worried
Worry about violence & damage to
economy BY Occupation
Very unusually,
students are most
worried group. Next
highest professionals
and business related
managers and
administrators
Worry about violence & damage to economy BY
Preference of Identity to Protect & Promote
Highest worry
among majority
who want
Hong Kong’s
identity as
pluralistic
protected and
promoted.
Worry about violence & damage to
economy BY Age
Those under 40 and particularly under 30 worried
Worry about violence & damage to economy
BY Support/oppose Occupy Central
Those most supportive of
Occupy Central most
worried. They support
OC despite fear of
violence and economic
damage.
Conclusion
• 1. Those most likely to participate, those most supportive, and those
most educated and the youngest, worry most about violence and
economic damage from Occupy Central.
• 2. Many expect Occupy Central will experience violence; nevertheless,
from 1/4 to 1/3 or more still express support. Minimally 1 million
people+ support.
• Clear warning signs: a significant proportion of the population is bent
on confrontation if they feel their views are ignored and their values are
endangered. Many doubt the fairness of a consultation before it barely
began. Many feel their preferred form of identity is not being
protected. They are committed to confrontation, if necessary, despite
fear of effects.
Conclusion
• If the promise of fair election of the Chief Executive
and of having a real choice of candidates is broken,
there will very likely be very strong reactions. These
reactions, many fear, will not be peaceful or without
damage to Hong Kong’s economy. After all, the
objective of Occupy Central is to bring home the cost
of ignoring democracy to the main occupants of
Central: Big Business and National Government.
Many appear grimly determined to confront if this
consultation, in their eyes, fails to be fair and fails to
protect the values of pluralism and internationalism.
Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project
Details of methods and earlier reports available at: http://www.hktp.org
Hong Kong Transition Project Research since 1988 has been funded by RGC
grants, grants from National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, Civic
Exchange, The Women’s Foundation and many other local and international
NGOs, and Community Development Foundation
The Hong Kong Transition Project is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary,
multi-national academic research project committed to good
governance and the highest standard public policy research

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