HDM-4 - sanral

Report
SANRAL
ANNUAL DOMESTIC ROADSHOW
- October 2011
1
#441439v1
The SANRAL mandate
•
Established in April 1998 by
an Act of Parliament as an
independent operating
company to operate South
Africa’s national road network
•
Responsible for strategic
planning with regard to
South African national road
system
•
Established in terms of the
National Roads Act of 1998 as
a public company with a share
capital within the requirements
of the South African
Companies Act
•
•
Finance, plan, construct,
provide, operate and
maintain roads in
neighbouring countries upon
request from the Minister of
Transport and in agreement
with the respective countries
Governed by a board of
directors (8 members) of
whom 7 must be appointed by
the Minister of Transport
•
Not profit driven but create
public value
•
Eighth member of the board is
the CEO by virtue of office
2
SANRAL’S ROLE
• National road network - economic
arteries
• Provide safely engineered, well
maintained roads
• Improve journey experience
• Transformation
• Create opportunities for employment,
business, tourism
3
WHAT DO WE DO?
• Responsible for proclaimed national roads:
Toll and Non-Toll network
• Maintain, fund, operate and rehabilitate
national roads
• Levy tolls to service toll roads
• Manage concessionaires
• Advise Minister on road related matters
• Create public value
4
The Bigger Picture
• Road user is our client – SANRAL
objective is to provide a safe well
engineered road to the user – movement
of people, services and goods
• Value of time – Time is valuable, both
commercial and private
• To enable the economy to grow –
creating wealth and job opportunities,
saving on road user costs – sufficient
infrastructure is required
5
The Bigger Picture
• In order to provide above, there are different focus
areas:
– As minimum, roads must be well maintained:
• Routine road maintenance (crack sealing, pothole repair,
grass cutting, road signs and markings, guardrails, etc)
• Periodic maintenance – reseals and overlays
• Rehabilitation
• Available funding optimized using tools such as pavement
management systems, HDM4
– Capacity improvements (combine with rehabs):
• Additional lanes
• Paved shoulders
• Climbing lanes
6
7
NATIONAL ROAD NETWORK (km)
Description
Dual
Carriageway
Non Toll
State Toll
BOT
Total
610
520
443
1 573
11
299
240
550
2-Lane
Single
12 429
1013
605 14 047
Total
13 050
1 832
1 288 16 170
81%
11%
4-Lane
Undivided
% of SANRAL Network
8%
National Road Network Length (Carriageway km)
Pavement Age Trend
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
>25 yrs
21-25 yrs
16-20 yrs
11-15 yrs
6-10 yrs
0-5 yrs
Please Note: 75% of Network Older than Original 20 Year Design Life9
2011
Average Daily Traffic Trend
National Road Network Length (Carriageway km)
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
0 - 5000
5000 - 10000
10000 - 20000
20000 - 50000
> 50000
10
COST OF MAINTENANCE DELAY - ROAD USER
R 20
Good Condition
Poor Condition
Very Poor Condition
R 18
Road User Cost (R/km)
R 16
R 14
R 12
Toll Class 1
Toll Class 2
R 10
Toll Class 3
Toll Class 4
R8
R6
R4
R2
R0
0
Good
2
4
6
8
10
12
International Roughness Index (m/km)
14
16
Poor
11
Based on HDM-4 Modeling
Forcasted Non-Toll National Road Network Conditon
100
90
80
70
60
Excellent
50
Good
Fair
40
Poor
30
Very Poor
20
10
Year
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
2009
Non-Toll National Road Network Condition (%)
R6bn/year Fiscus Funding for 13,050 km - NO New Toll Roads
12
Forcasted Non-Toll National Road Network Conditon
100
90
80
70
60
Excellent
50
Good
Fair
40
Poor
30
Very Poor
20
10
Year
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
2009
Non-Toll National Road Network Condition (%)
R6bn/year Fiscus Funding for 11,050* km - With New Toll Roads
13
FUNDING
 Government Grant for the non-toll network
 Cannot budget for a deficit
 Toll Revenue – to be used only on toll roads
 Borrowings from capital markets and financial institutions
 Other income (minimal) – rental income etc
 Alternate Funding Sources finalised/under
discussion
 EIB
 ECA
 Foreign investors - roadshows
14
Ratings
Moody’s
Global Scale Issuer Ratings:
(Non-guaranteed notes)
Long-Term:
Short-Term:
A3
P-2
National Scale Issuer Ratings:
(Non-guaranteed notes)
Long-Term:
Short-Term:
Aa2.za
P-1.za
15
BORROWING CAPACITY
• Initial R6 billion guaranteed funding (SZ
bonds)
• R1 billion N1 loan – separate
guarantee
• R26.91 billion guaranteed funding
(HWAY bonds & others)
• R15 billion – non guaranteed funding
(NRA bonds)
Increased from R10bn
Total Borrowing capacity = R48.91 billion
16
TOTAL DEBT
17
TOTAL DEBT
18
THE SANRAL SUITE (Aug 2011)
Spire Awards: BEST BORROWER 2008 & 2009
BEST ISSUER 2009 (HWAY20)
BOND
COU- MATURITY
PON
COUPON DATES
ISSUE AMT TYPE
(million)
NRA013
4.25
31 October 2013
30 April
31 October
1 473
NRA014
11.25
30 April 2014
30 April
31 October
132
Fixed
NRA018
12.25
30 November 2018
31 May
30 November
2 553
Fixed
NRA022
12.25
31 October 2022
30 April
31 October
2 887
Fixed
NRA023
5.00
31 May 2023
31 May
30 November
910
NRA028
12.25
30 November 2028
31 May
30 November
3 717
Fixed
HWAY20
9.75
31 July 2020
31 January 31 July
6 736
Fixed
HWAY23
5.50
07 December 2023
30 June
December
31
1 176
CPI
HWAY24
5.50
07 December 2024
30 June
December
31
211
CPI
HWAY34
9.25
31 July 2034
31 January 31 July
2 400
Fixed
HWAY35
9.25
31 July 2035
31 January 31 July
647
Fixed
CPI
CPI
What have we been up to . . .
20
CONTRACTS AWARDED
1ST APRIL TO 31ST MARCH 2011
Business area
R ‘000
Non-toll Network
7 572 188
Toll Network
1 978 083
Other
2 780 815
TOTAL VALUE
12 331 086
2009/10
18 608 882
2008/09
18 188 912
2007/08
4 657 693
21
BUDGET
Business
area
R’million
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Non-toll
Network
8 629
9 705
10 316
Toll Network
6 860
3 859
3 734
15 489
13 564
14 050
TOTAL
VALUE
22
J-curve
23
J-curve (in numbers)
The effect on the SANRAL debt level as a result of GFIP
APPROVED GFIP TARIFF SCENARIOS – DEBT LEVEL
INFORMATION (ENTIRE TOLL PORTFOLIO)
Scenario
Original Gazetted tariff
Maximum Debt (in
Milions of ZAR)
Year of Maximum Debt
(in Million of ZAR)
Year of Debt
Repayment (in
Millions of ZAR)
R
- 47,396
2017/2018
2027/2028
Steerco recommended tariff R
– start date 1 Nov 2011
- 53,636
2020/2021
2029/2030
Public transport exemption R
effect
- 54,191
2020/2021
2029/2030
Start date 1 Feb 2012
- 57,251
2020/2021
2030/2031
24
R
Project Extent:
PLANNED LANE
ADDITIONS: 185
km (2010)
FUTURE
UPGRADES:
(223 KM)
PLANNED NEW
ROUTES:
158 km
FINAL
SCHEME:
561 KM
25
Open Road Tolling (ORT)
In urban environment (space
constraint), high traffic volumes (100
000 to 200 000 AADT), conventional
tolling not an option
ORT:
All transactions recorded electronically:
Number plates or tag
Vehicle linked to an account
No physical toll plazas – free flow tolling
26
SANRAL principles for ORT
One tag standard
One account – may include various
vehicles
Central clearing
Full interoperability
27
Open Road Tolling ORT
All the toll transactions will take place
electronically
No physical toll plazas
Tag
Also known as:
Transponder
or On Board
Unit (OBU)
Standard: 5,8GHz
28
Discounts Types
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
E-Toll tag account
Time of day
Frequent user
Public Transport operator (PTO)
No discount if not registered
All discounts cumulative except PTO
Commuter taxis and busses exempt
29
ORT – Violation Processing
Potential violator identified if:
– No e-tag or account
– Insufficient funds in account
– Vehicle not identifiable
Transaction forwarded to VPC:
– Send invoice
– Not successful – Infringement notice – note, must
be peace officers and should be appointed by
SANRAL
– Not paid – Courtesy letter (RTMC)
– Not paid – Enforcement order
30
Violation Enforcement
• Enforcement Unit (traffic officers together with
ORT contractor) is set up to do violation
enforcement
• Not only toll – all traffic violations
• Also attending to other requirements –
management of incidents
31
Key Account Management
• Agreements reached with fleetbanks to
assist with distribution and management
of tags – daily payment guaranteed
• SAVRALA – near real time: transactions
sent to rental companies > direct link
• Large fleets: direct agreement with
SANRAL – manage own tags and
payments
• Bulk registration: Initial registration done
32
through predefined template
Capital Investment Programme
SANRAL Funded Toll Network Development
N2 Tsitsikamma Toll Road - completed
N17 East Toll Road Extension
Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project
(GFIP)
N1 South and R30 Bloemfontein –
Kroonstad
N1 Polokwane Bypass - completed
Mariannhill Extension
King Shaka Interchange – completed
33
Knysna Ring road
Current & Proposed Concessions
Current Concessions
• N4 East, Maputo Development Corridor –
471km
• N3 Cedara, Heidelberg – 429km
• N4 West, Platinum Highway – 382km
Proposed Concessions
• N1/N2 Winelands Toll Highway – On
tender
• N2 Wild Coast Toll Highway – Received
RoD
34
• R300 Ring Road
Future Investments
• Maintain expenditure on asset
preservation
• Extend intelligent transport systems
• Extend electronic toll collection system
• Complete feasibility studies
• Initial Environmental Scan
• Construction Programme
• GFIP Phase 2?
35
N1 Section
R300 to Hex River Valley: 105,6km
R300
N2 Section
R300 to Bot River: 70,3km
36
37
CONCLUSION
• Investing in roads
•
•
•
•
 For sustainable economic growth
 Leverage procurement to transform industry
 Make communities economically independent
 Create public value
Effective delivery of road infrastructure for public
transport and movement of freight
Expansive investment programme
Core components of South Africa’s growth
strategy
Conservative and prudent funding strategy
38
Highways of the future
39
Thank you!
SANRAL
48 Tambotie Avenue
Val de Grace
Pretoria
0184
PO Box 415
Pretoria
0001
Telephone: +27 12 844 8000
Fax: +27 12 844 8200
Nazir Alli, [email protected]
Inge Mulder, [email protected]
Philip Gildenhuys, [email protected]
Alice Mathew, [email protected]
Gill Raine, [email protected]
Prasanna Nana, [email protected]
FRAUD HOTLINE: 0800 204 558
Website: www.nra.co.za

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