Day 2 Arnulf Grubler - Precourt Institute for Energy

Report
Policies for
Energy Technology
Innovation Systems
Arnulf Grubler
IIASA & Yale University
Energy Technology Innovation
Energy technology innovation is
the embodied result of institutionalized research,
development and deployment efforts
driven by collective learning processes
involving both suppliers and users of technologies
operating in specific contexts
of adoption environments and incentive structures.
GEA Chapter 24
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
2
Chapter 24 Highlights & News
● New concepts:
-- Systems perspective (ETIS)
-- “granularity” of technologies/projects
● New quantifications:
- ETIS resource mobilization
- R&D in BRIMCS
- knowledge depreciation
- impacts of policy misalignments and volatility
- innovation portfolio biases
● Generic criteria for policy design:
-- Knowledge: feedbacks (experimentation),
spillovers (globalization)
-- Policy: stability, alignment
-- Targets: systems, and portfolio based
● Literature review + research + 20 GEA case studies
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
3
World – Primary Energy Transitions
changeover time Δts: 80-130 years
World Primary Energy Substitution
Begin of energy policy focus:
Δt’s >2000 yrs
100
modern fuels:
oil, gas,
electricity
Percent in Primary Energy
traditional biomass
Δt -130 yrs
75
Δt -80 yrs
50
coal
25
Δt +130 yrs
Δt +90 yrs
0
1850
© GEA 2012
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
www.globalenergyassessment.org
2000
2025
4
public policy &
leverage
shared
expectations
entrepreneurs / risk
taking
ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS
entrepreneurs / risk
taking
resource
inputs
public policy &
leverage
RESOURCES
RESOURCES
www.globalenergyassessment.org
cost
learning
performance
generation
TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS
KNOWLEDGE
cost
resource
inputs
© GEA 2012
learning
performance
shared
expectations
generation
TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS
The KNOWLEDGE
GEA ETIS Framework
5
ETIS at Work: US Solar Thermal 1982-1992
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
6
Post Fossil Technologies Cost Trends
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
7
Cumulative Experience /Learning Favors “granular” Technologies
category technology
learning
data for: cumulative production (units) learning
# exp
period rate
energy
end-use
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
World
US
US
US
US
US
Transitors
DRAMs
Automobiles
Washing machines
Refrigerators
Dishwashers
Freezers (upright)
Freezers (chest)
Dryers
Hand-held calculators
CF light bulbs
A/C & heat pumps
Air furnaces
Solar hot water heaters
>1
>1
>2
>2
>2
>6
>6
>5
>3
>4
>4
>1
>1
>1
average for end-use technologies
energy
supply
PV modules
Wind turbines
Heat pumps
Gas turbines
Pulverized coal boilers
Hypropower plants
Nuclear reactors
Ethanol
Coal power plants
Coal power plants
Gas pipelines
Gas combined cycles
Hydrogen production (SRM)
LNG production
World
World
S, CH
World
World
OECD
US, France
Brazil
OECD
US
US
OECD
World
World
average for suppy technologies
average for supply, excluding nuclear
© GEA 2012
10^18
10^11
10^9
10^9
10^9
10^8
10^8
10^8
10^8
10^8
10^8
10^8
10^8
10^6
10^9
>1
>1
<1
>4
>6
~5
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
>1
>1
10^10
10^5
10^5
10^4
10^3
10^3
10^3
10^3
10^3
10^3
10^3
10^3
10^2
10^2
10^4
1960-2010
1975-2005
1900-2005
1965-2008
1964-2008
1968-2007
1970-2003
1970-1998
1969-2003
early 1970s
1992-1998
1972-2009
1953-2009
1974-2003
40
16 - 24
9 - 14
33 ±9
9 ±4
27 ±7
10 ±5
8 ±2
28 ±7
30
16
18 ±1
31 ±3
-3
20
1975-2009
18-24
1975-2009
10-17
1982-2008
2 - 21
1958-1980
10-13
1940-2000
6
1975-1993
1
1971-2000 -20 - -47
1975-2009
21
1975-1993
8
1950-1982
1-6
1984-1997
4
1981-1997
10
1980-2005
27
1980-2005
14
8
12
Draft, table
will be replaced by graphic in final presentation8
www.globalenergyassessment.org
Knowledge
Knowledge Depreciation
Depreciation Rates
Rates (%
(% per
per year)
year)
Degree of knowledge stock turnover
(policy & human capital volatility)
empirical studies reviewed GEA KM24 (2012) and
empirical studies reviewed GEA KM24 (2012) and
modeled R&D deprecation in US manufacturing (Hall, 2007)
modeled R&D deprecation in US manufacturing (Hall, 2007)
Degree of technological obsolescence (rate of innovation)
Low
High
Engineering
designs US:
<5%
PV Japan:
OECD
Wind US: nuclear R&D: 30%
10%
10 – 40%
Computers:
Chemicals,
32%
Drugs:
Electrical,
15-20%
Aircraft,
Miscell. Machinery:
Liberty ships
32-36%
>20%
manufct. US:
France
40%
breeder reactors:
50-60%
Service
industries:
95%
High
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
9
ETIS Actors & Institutions
Institutional design for technology innovation
remains amiss of importance of BRICs in energy
R&D and “minimizes” global knowledge spillovers
National Energy R&D
(public+private)
Energy R&D Investments
(public+private)
25
Renew ables and
Hydrogen
20
Billion US$2005 PPP
International Clean-tech collaborations
IEA: Implementing Agreements
(# of IEA
implementation agreements)
(number of agreements, by category)
End-Use: Buildings
electricity+other
15
10
Fossil f uels
fossil fuels
End-Use: Transport
nuclear
End-Use: Electricity
renewables
Cross-Cutting
efficiency
5
Fussion Pow er
End-Use: Industry
0
OECD
BRICs
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
IEA members
OECD vs BRICs
IEA non-members
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
10
World ETIS Resource Mobilization
Billion $2005
innovation
(RD&D)
End-use & efficiency
Fossil fuel supply
Nuclear
Renewables
Electricity (Gen+T&D)
Other*
Total
non-OECD
non-OECD share
>>8
>12
>10
>12
>>1
>>4
>50
market
formation
diffusion
5
300-3500
>>2
200-550
0
3-8
~20
>20
~100
450-520
<15
n.a.
<150 1000 - <5000
~20
~30
>40%
<20%
~400 - ~1500
40% - 30%
* hydrogen, fuel cells, other power & storage technologies, basic energy research
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
Source: GEA KM24, 2012
11
Public Policy-induced ETIS Investments
billion US$2005
© GEA 2012
www.globalenergyassessment.org
Source: Wilson et al. Nature CC 2012
12
shared
expectations
learning
Future
Needs
Analysis &
Modelling
Social
Rates of
Return
Learning
Effects
performance
entrepreneurs / risk
taking
Roadmaps
& Portfolios
Technology
Collaborations
R,D&D
(public $)
Market
Formation
Diffusion
Support
public policy &
leverage
resource
inputs
cost
ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS
generation
TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS
KNOWLEDGE
RESOURCES
key
Directable
(Activities)
NonDirectable
(Outputs)
CLIMATE
MITIGATION
shared
expectations
learning
Future
Needs
Analysis &
Modelling
Social
Rates of
Return
Learning
Effects
performance
entrepreneurs / risk
taking
Roadmaps
& Portfolios
Technology
Collaborations
R,D&D
(public $)
Market
Formation
Diffusion
Support
public policy &
leverage
resource
inputs
cost
ACTORS & INSTITUTIONS
generation
TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS
KNOWLEDGE
RESOURCES
key
Directable
(Activities)
NonDirectable
(Outputs)
supply : end-use
(relative effort)
CLIMATE
MITIGATION
Gregory Nemet (Univ. Wisconsin)
Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre)
GEA Chapter 24 Authors and Resources
LAs:
Francisco Aguayo (Colegio de México)
Kelly Gallagher (Tufts University)
Arnulf Grubler (IIASA & Yale), CLA
Marko Hekkert (Utrecht University)
Kejun Jiang (ERI, China)
Lynn Mytelka (UNU)
Lena Neij (Lund University)
Gregory Nemet (Univ. Wisconsin)
Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre)
CAs:
Leon Clarke (JGCRI, University of Maryland)
Per Dannemand Andersen (Denmark TU)
Laura Diaz Anadon (Harvard University)
Sabine Fuss (IIASA)
Martin Jakob (ETH Zürich)
Daniel Kammen (University of CA, Berkeley)
Ruud Kempener (Harvard University)
Osamu Kimura (CRIEPI, Japan)
Bernadette Kiss (Lund University)
Anastasia O'Rourke (BigRoom Inc.)
Robert N. Schock (World Energy)
Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr. (Univ.Mato Grosso)
CAs:
Leon
Clarke (JGCRI, University of Maryland)
Resources:
Per Dannemand Andersen (Denmark TU)
Chapter
24:
http://www.globalenergyassessment.org/Chapters/Chapter 24
Laura
Diaz
Anadon
(Harvard University)
Case studies:
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/
Sabine
Fuss (IIASA)
TransitionstoNewTechnologies/CaseStudy_home.en.html
Martin Jakob (ETH
Zürich)
Daniel
Kammen
(University of CA, Berkeley)
Related
publications:
Ruud Gallagher,
Kempener
(Harvard
K.S., A.
Grubler, L.University)
Kuhl, G. Nemet, C. Wilson, 2012. The Energy Technology Innovation System.
Annual Review
of Environment
and
Resources, 37:137-62 doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-060311-133915.
Osamu
Kimura
(CRIEPI,
Japan)
Wilson, C.,
Grubler,
A., Gallagher,
K. S., Nemet, G.F., 2012. Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation
Bernadette
Kiss
(Lund
University)
for climate protection. Nature Climate Change, 2(11), 780-788, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1576.
Anastasia O'Rourke (BigRoom Inc.)
A. Grubler and C. Wilson (eds.), Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures,
Robert
Schock
(World
Energy)
CambridgeN.
University
Press
(in press)
Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr. (Univ.Mato Grosso)

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