Report

JEMEZ PUEBLO SOLAR POWER PRE-FEASIBILTY STUDY Tom Acker, Ph.D. Cherise John, MS Candidate Department of Mechanical Engineering Mehrdad Khatibi Tribal Clean Energy Resource Center Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals November 18, 2014 Flagstaff, AZ 1 Project Funding Sustainable Energy Solutions US Department of Energy’s American Indian Research and Education Initiative (DOEAIREI). American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES) American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC) 2 Project Partners Project partners: Sustainable Energy Solutions Pueblo of Jemez, New Mexico Northern Arizona University Southwest Indian Polytechnic Institute Advising: Sandia National Laboratory 3 Sustainable Energy Solutions Outline Purpose Site overview and system configurations System Advisor Model (SAM) Model inputs Fixed PV titled at latitude Results Summary Fixed PV horizontal axis http://www.bluepacificsolar.com/ 4 wn.com Purpose Sustainable Energy Solutions Involve Native American students in relevant R&D-type project that could benefit a tribe Investigate potential for a utility-scale solar project on the Jemez Pueblo reservation with the intent to sell to out-of-state buyers 40 MW project size on the Holy Ghost site Holy Ghost site on Jemez Reservation 5 Four Systems Considered Sustainable Energy Solutions NAU: Fixed, horizontal PV NAU: 1-axis tracking, horizontal PV NAU & SIPI: Fixed, tilted at latitude PV NAU & SIPI : CSP Solar Power Tower Solar Power Tower Horizontal PV 1-axis tracker http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/calc ulators/pvwatts/system.html Sandia National Laboratories / PIX 00036 6 http://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/solar-trackers/ Site with New Mexico Sustainable Energy Solutions Jemez Pueblo is located within Sandoval County, New Mexico: Elevation: 5,600 ft Climate: Dry-hot Population: 3,600 Google Maps, 2014. 7 High Solar Energy Potential Sustainable Energy Solutions New Mexico State Source: NREL Solar Prospector, 2014 Annual latitude tilt irradiance 8 level of 6.4 kWh/m2/day High Solar Energy Potential Sustainable Energy Solutions Looking NW at Holy Ghost Site Credit: Mehrdad Khatibi, 2014 Google Maps, 2014 9 Transmission Grid Connection Sustainable Energy Solutions 5 miles to nearest grid interconnection Google Maps, 2014 Credit: Mehrdad Khatibi, 2014 10 Solar Resource: DNI, GHI, Diffuse Sustainable Energy Solutions 11 System Advisor Model (SAM) Sustainable Energy Solutions Energy and performance model based on location, technology, system design parameters, costs, etc. SAM uses a library of cost, financial, performance, and resource models developed at NREL, Sandia, Univ. of Wisconsin, and other places. 12 NREL SAM, Jan 2014 Sustainable Energy Solutions SAM PV Inputs System size: 40 MW DC PV panels: Prism Technologies 245 B (245 W panel) Inverter: Satcon Technologies 1.25 MW System location: lat 35.71 long -106.95 “Holy Ghost” site Size of the PV array system: Strings in parallel: Number of inverters: PV modules in one string: 7420 30 22 13 SAM Solar PV Module 14 Sustainable Energy Solutions SAM Solar Array Info 15 Sustainable Energy Solutions SAM Solar Configuration 16 Sustainable Energy Solutions SAM System Costs 17 Sustainable Energy Solutions Power Tower Specs Molten salt with 10 hours of storage Tower height 203 meters; Receiver height 20 meters 8,929 heliostats (mirrors) height, width 12.2 meters Field size 1,953 acres Installed cost: $580M ($16.7k/kW) Source: NREL Sustainable Energy Solutions SAM Financial Inputs Sustainable Energy Solutions PPA Price $ 0.12/kWh 20 yr loan at 7% Real discount rate 8.2% Fed Income Tax 35% Fed Investment Tax Credit 30% 19 SAM Performance Outputs Sustainable Energy Solutions 20 Sustainable Energy Solutions PV Monthly Energy Output 12 Fixed Horizontal (68.1 GWh) Fixed Tilt (81.6 GWh) 1 Axis Tracking (96.1 GWh) Energy Output (GWh) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Month of the Year 9 10 11 12 21 Net Present Value Results Sustainable Energy Solutions 22 Net Present Value Sensitivity Sustainable Energy Solutions 1-axis tracker 100 PPA Escalation Rate (1%/yr) Real Discount Rate (8.2%/yr) Federal Tax Rate (35%/yr) Insurance Rate (.5%/yr) 90 Net Present Value ($M) 80 Loan Rate (7%/yr) Inflation Rate (2.5%/yr) State Tax Rate (7%/yr) PPA Price (.12$/kWh) 70 60 50 $34.3 Million 40 30 20 10 0 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Fraction of Central Case 1.6 1.8 23 2 Summary NAU and SIPI students conducted studies Financial results look promising: Sustainable Energy Solutions PV systems NPA ranged from $16M to $34M with a PPA price of $0.12 / kWh Power tower NPV is $79M with PPA of $0.20 / kWH NPV is most sensitive to PPA price and the real discount rate Future analysis: transmission interconnect cost; optimize plant size, technology, and configuration; tune SAM inputs to Jemez project and customers 24 THANK YOU! Sustainable Energy Solutions Joshual Madalena, Governor John Galvin, Greg Kaufman, Division of Natural Resources Pueblo of Jemez Thomas L. Acker, Ph.D., Mehrdad Khatibi Cherise John, Kaelyn DeVore, Steven Tallas [email protected] [email protected] Nader Vadiee, Ph.D. Jonathan West, Matthew Collins, Tomzak Billie Engineering and Engr Technology Programs Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute Stan Atcitty, Ph.D. [email protected] (Sandia is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin company, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.) 25 Appendix 26 References Sustainable Energy Solutions (1) National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Dynamic Maps, GIS Data & Analysis Tools. 3 Sept. 2013. Web. Accessed 16 Apr. 2014. <http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html> (2) National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Solar Prospector. 16 Apr 2014. Web. Accessed 16 Apr. 2014. <http://maps.nrel.gov/prospector> (3) National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. System Advisor Model (SAM). Published by samadmin on Mon, 4 May 2010. Web. Accessed 16 Apr. 2014. <https://sam.nrel.gov> (4) Turchi, C.S., and G.A. Heath, Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for the System Advisor Model (SAM). NREL/TP-5500-57625, Feb 2013 27 Definitions Calculated ppa escalation (%) LCOE LCOE Nominal @ 10.9% LCOE Real @ 8.2% Net present value Internal Rate of Return (%) Minimum DSCR Capacity Factor First year kWhac/kWdc System performance factor (%) Sustainable Energy Solutions The PPA escalation rate is an annual escalation rate that SAM uses to calculate the PPA price in Years Two and later. The LCOE is the total cost of installing and operating a project expressed in dollars per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated by the system over its life The nominal LCOE is a current dollar value and depends on the nominal discount rate and does not depend on inflation rate. The nominal (current) dollars may be more appropriate for short-term analyses. The real LCOE is a constant dollar, inflation-adjusted value and depends on the real discount rate. Real (constant) dollars may be appropriate for long-term analyses to account for many years of inflation over the project life A project's net present value (NPV) is a measure of a project's economic feasibility that includes both revenue (or savings for residential and commercial projects) and cost. In general, a positive net present value indicates an economically feasible project, while a negative net present value indicates an economically infeasible project, although this may not be true for all analyses. The internal rate of return is the nominal discount rate that corresponds to a net present value of zero for projects with commercial PPA or utility financing The minimum DSCR is the minimum debt-service coverage ratio that SAM calculates for projects with the Commercial PPA or Utility IPP financing option that you choose The capacity factor is the ratio of the system's predicted electrical output in the first year of operation to the nameplate output, which is equivalent to the quantity of energy the system would generate if it operated at its nameplate capacity for every hour of the year. For PV systems, the capacity factor is an AC-to-DC value. For PV systems, SAM reports the ratio of the system's annual AC electric output in Year one to it's nameplate DC capacity: First year kWhac/kWdc = Net Annual Energy ÷ Nameplate Capacity The system performance factor is a measure of a photovoltaic system's annual electric generation output in AC kWh compared to its nameplate rated capacity in DC kW, taking into account the solar resource at the system's location. 28 Sustainable Energy Solutions Power Tower Layout Source: NREL