Acker_Jemez Pueblo Solar Study 11-18-14 - Nau

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JEMEZ PUEBLO
SOLAR POWER
PRE-FEASIBILTY STUDY
Tom Acker, Ph.D.
Cherise John, MS Candidate
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Mehrdad Khatibi
Tribal Clean Energy Resource Center
Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals
November 18, 2014
Flagstaff, AZ
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Project Funding
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US Department of Energy’s American Indian
Research and Education Initiative (DOEAIREI).
American Indian Science and Engineering
Society (AISES)
American Indian Higher Education
Consortium (AIHEC)
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Project Partners
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Project partners:
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Pueblo of Jemez, New Mexico
Northern Arizona University
Southwest Indian Polytechnic Institute
Advising:
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Sandia National Laboratory
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Outline
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Purpose
Site overview and system configurations
System Advisor Model (SAM)
Model inputs
Fixed PV titled at latitude
Results
Summary
Fixed PV horizontal axis
http://www.bluepacificsolar.com/
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wn.com
Purpose
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Involve Native American students in relevant
R&D-type project that could benefit a tribe
Investigate potential for a utility-scale solar
project on the Jemez Pueblo reservation with
the intent to sell to out-of-state buyers
40 MW project size on the Holy Ghost site
Holy Ghost site on Jemez Reservation
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Four Systems Considered
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NAU: Fixed, horizontal PV
NAU: 1-axis tracking, horizontal PV
NAU & SIPI: Fixed, tilted at latitude PV
NAU & SIPI : CSP Solar Power Tower
Solar Power Tower
Horizontal PV 1-axis tracker
http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/calc
ulators/pvwatts/system.html
Sandia National Laboratories / PIX 00036
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http://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/solar-trackers/
Site with New Mexico
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Jemez Pueblo is
located within
Sandoval County,
New Mexico:
 Elevation: 5,600 ft
 Climate: Dry-hot
 Population: 3,600
Google Maps, 2014.
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High Solar Energy Potential
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New Mexico State
Source: NREL Solar Prospector, 2014
Annual latitude tilt irradiance
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level of 6.4 kWh/m2/day
High Solar Energy Potential
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Looking NW at Holy Ghost Site
Credit: Mehrdad Khatibi, 2014
Google Maps, 2014
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Transmission Grid Connection
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5 miles to nearest grid interconnection
Google Maps, 2014
Credit: Mehrdad Khatibi, 2014
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Solar Resource:
DNI, GHI, Diffuse
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System Advisor Model (SAM)
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Energy and performance model based on
location, technology, system design parameters,
costs, etc.
SAM uses a library
of cost, financial,
performance, and
resource models
developed at
NREL, Sandia,
Univ. of Wisconsin,
and other places.
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NREL SAM, Jan 2014
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SAM PV Inputs
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System size:
40 MW DC
PV panels:
Prism Technologies 245 B (245 W panel)
Inverter:
Satcon Technologies 1.25 MW
System location: lat 35.71
long -106.95
“Holy Ghost” site
Size of the PV array system:
Strings in parallel:
Number of inverters:
PV modules in one string:
7420
30
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SAM Solar PV Module
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SAM Solar Array Info
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SAM Solar Configuration
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SAM System Costs
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Power Tower Specs
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Molten salt with 10 hours of storage
Tower height 203 meters; Receiver height 20 meters
8,929 heliostats (mirrors) height, width 12.2 meters
Field size 1,953 acres
Installed cost: $580M ($16.7k/kW)
Source: NREL
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SAM Financial Inputs
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PPA Price $ 0.12/kWh
20 yr loan at 7%
Real discount rate 8.2%
Fed Income Tax 35%
Fed Investment Tax
Credit 30%
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SAM Performance Outputs
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PV Monthly Energy Output
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Fixed Horizontal (68.1 GWh)
Fixed Tilt (81.6 GWh)
1 Axis Tracking (96.1 GWh)
Energy Output (GWh)
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8
6
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0
1
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5
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Month of the Year
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10
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Net Present Value Results
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Net Present Value Sensitivity
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1-axis tracker
100
PPA Escalation Rate (1%/yr)
Real Discount Rate (8.2%/yr)
Federal Tax Rate (35%/yr)
Insurance Rate (.5%/yr)
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Net Present Value ($M)
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Loan Rate (7%/yr)
Inflation Rate (2.5%/yr)
State Tax Rate (7%/yr)
PPA Price (.12$/kWh)
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60
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$34.3 Million
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30
20
10
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0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Fraction of Central Case
1.6
1.8
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Summary
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NAU and SIPI students conducted studies
Financial results look promising:
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PV systems NPA ranged from $16M to $34M with a
PPA price of $0.12 / kWh
Power tower NPV is $79M with PPA of $0.20 / kWH
NPV is most sensitive to PPA price and the
real discount rate
Future analysis: transmission interconnect
cost; optimize plant size, technology, and
configuration; tune SAM inputs to Jemez
project and customers
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THANK YOU!
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Joshual Madalena, Governor
John Galvin, Greg Kaufman, Division of Natural
Resources
Pueblo of Jemez
Thomas L. Acker, Ph.D., Mehrdad Khatibi
Cherise John, Kaelyn DeVore, Steven Tallas
[email protected]
[email protected]
Nader Vadiee, Ph.D.
Jonathan West, Matthew Collins, Tomzak Billie
Engineering and Engr Technology Programs
Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute
Stan Atcitty, Ph.D.
[email protected]
(Sandia is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia
Corporation, a Lockheed Martin company, for the U.S.
Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security
administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.)
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Appendix
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References
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(1) National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Alliance for Sustainable Energy,
LLC. Dynamic Maps, GIS Data & Analysis Tools. 3 Sept. 2013. Web.
Accessed 16 Apr. 2014. <http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html>
(2) National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Alliance for Sustainable Energy,
LLC. Solar Prospector. 16 Apr 2014. Web. Accessed 16 Apr. 2014.
<http://maps.nrel.gov/prospector>
(3) National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Alliance for Sustainable Energy,
LLC. System Advisor Model (SAM). Published by samadmin on Mon, 4 May
2010. Web. Accessed 16 Apr. 2014. <https://sam.nrel.gov>
(4) Turchi, C.S., and G.A. Heath, Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for
the System Advisor Model (SAM). NREL/TP-5500-57625, Feb 2013
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Definitions
Calculated ppa escalation (%)
LCOE
LCOE Nominal @ 10.9%
LCOE Real @ 8.2%
Net present value
Internal Rate of Return (%)
Minimum DSCR
Capacity Factor
First year kWhac/kWdc
System performance factor (%)
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The PPA escalation rate is an annual escalation rate that SAM uses to calculate the PPA price in Years
Two and later.
The LCOE is the total cost of installing and operating a project expressed in dollars per kilowatt-hour
of electricity generated by the system over its life
The nominal LCOE is a current dollar value and depends on the nominal discount rate and does not
depend on inflation rate. The nominal (current) dollars may be more appropriate for short-term
analyses.
The real LCOE is a constant dollar, inflation-adjusted value and depends on the real discount rate.
Real (constant) dollars may be appropriate for long-term analyses to account for many years of
inflation over the project life
A project's net present value (NPV) is a measure of a project's economic feasibility that includes both
revenue (or savings for residential and commercial projects) and cost. In general, a positive net
present value indicates an economically feasible project, while a negative net present value indicates
an economically infeasible project, although this may not be true for all analyses.
The internal rate of return is the nominal discount rate that corresponds to a net present value of zero
for projects with commercial PPA or utility financing
The minimum DSCR is the minimum debt-service coverage ratio that SAM calculates for projects
with the Commercial PPA or Utility IPP financing option that you choose
The capacity factor is the ratio of the system's predicted electrical output in the first year of operation
to the nameplate output, which is equivalent to the quantity of energy the system would generate if it
operated at its nameplate capacity for every hour of the year. For PV systems, the capacity factor is
an AC-to-DC value.
For PV systems, SAM reports the ratio of the system's annual AC electric output in Year one to it's
nameplate DC capacity: First year kWhac/kWdc = Net Annual Energy ÷ Nameplate Capacity
The system performance factor is a measure of a photovoltaic system's annual electric generation
output in AC kWh compared to its nameplate rated capacity in DC kW, taking into account the solar
resource at the system's location.
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Power
Tower
Layout
Source: NREL

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