3SAQS_Winter2014-Spring2015_ModelingSchedule_09

Report
Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)
Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)
3SAQS Modeling Schedule
Winter 2014-Spring 2015
University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)
ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)
September 30, 2014
Overview
• Pilot study modeling work status
• Plans for October 2014 – April 2015
– 2011 CMAQ modeling
– 2011 AQ sensitivity modeling
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Boundary Conditions
Background Air Quality
Oil & Gas
Winter Ozone
Ammonia
Vertical Transport
MOVES2014
• List of tasks, deliverables, and expected dates
2
3SAQS Pilot Study Modeling Status
Deliverable
Status
2008 Modeling Platform
2008 Modeling Protocol
Completed (4/2014)
SMOKE 36/12-km 2008a
Completed (5/2014)
SMOKE 36/12-km 2008b
Completed (7/2014)
CAMx 36/12-km 2008b
Completed (8/2014)
CAMx 2008a MPE Report
Ready for Review (9/2014)
SMOKE 36/12-km 2020a_08
Completed (7/2014)
CAMx 36/12-km 2020a_08
Completed (8/2014)
2011 Modeling Platform
2011 Modeling Protocol
Completed (7/2014)
WRF 36/12/4-km 2011a
Completed (5/2014)
WRF 2011 MPE Report
Ready for Review (8/2014)
SMOKE 36/12/4-km 2011a
Completed (8/2014)
CAMx 36/12/4-km 2011a
Completed (9/2014)
CAMx 36/12/4-km 2020a_11
Running (11/2014)
3
2011 CMAQ Modeling
• CMAQ V5.0.2 2011a 36/12/4 km Base Case Modeling
– Use “same” inputs as current CAMx 2011a Base Case
• MOZART or GEOS-Chem BCs; WRF processed with MCIP meteorology;
2011a Base Case emissions
– Annual 2011 CMAQ 36, 12 and 4 km one-way nesting
• (CAMx used two-way nesting)
• Model Performance Evaluation
• Deliverables:
– 2011 CMAQ 36/12/4 km I/O loaded on 3sDW
– CMAQ MPE report and comparison to CAMx MPE
– 3SAQS guidance document on how/when use CMAQ vs. CAMx
• Schedule: Oct - Nov 2014
4
2011 Sensitivity Modeling
• Perform CAMx and/or CMAQ sensitivity tests for all or
part of 2011 to investigate model performance issues
and/or alternative inputs/options
• Boundary Condition Sensitivity
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GEOS-Chem Boundary Condition (BC)
Compare with results using MOZART BCs
Dust and ozone BC tracers
CAMx 36/12/4 km 2011 annual run
MPE including ozonesonde, STE events and spring dust
Adopt as new 2011 Base Case if improved MPE
5
2011 Sensitivity Modeling
• Background Air Quality
– US Background AQ using MOZART BCs
• CAMx 2011 36/12 km annual with zero US
anthropogenic emissions
• Calculate background ozone with no US anthro
• Status: running now
– Optional US Background using GEOS-Chem BCs
• CAMx 2011 36/12 km annual with zero US
anthropogenic emissions
• Only do this if differences between MOZART and GEOSChem base runs
6
2011 Sensitivity Modeling
• Oil and Gas VOC Sensitivities
– Literature review to obtain top down VOC scaling
factors for each O&G Basin
– Adjust 2011 O&G VOC emission by Basin
– Design 2-3 additional emission sensitivities to
adjust O&G emissions in specific Basins to
improve MPE
– CAMx 2011 with adjusted VOC O&G simulation
7
2011 Sensitivity Modeling
• Preliminary Winter ozone sensitivity
– May use new winter WRF simulations
– CAMx and/or CMAQ sensitivity to O&G VOC, snow cover,
albedo, mixing, etc.
• Ammonia Emissions Sensitivity
– Work with NPS/ARD to develop ammonia sens test
– Use AMON observations, satellite data etc. to develop
changes in temporal, spatial and magnitude of NH3
emissions
– CAMx and/or CMAQ sensitivity for portion of 2011
– Ideas:
• Integrated process rate (process analysis) simulation at AMON and
Boulder, CO monitoring sites
• CMAQ bi-directional NH3 flux sensitivity (with vs without bi-di)
8
2011 Sensitivity Modeling
• Vertical Transport/Mixing
– Explore alternative vertical transport and mixing
approaches, including no WRF layer collapsing, using CAMx
and/or CMAQ for portion of 2011
• MOVES2014 on-road mobile sources
– MOVES2014 released 7/31/14, SMOKE-MOVES2014 in
Oct?
– Use SMOKE-MOVES2014 to generate new on-road
emissions for 36/12/4 km 3SAQS domains
– Compare emissions w/ MOVES2010b for 3SAQS domains
– CAMx 2011 MOVES2014 annual Base Case and MPE
– Compare CAMx MPE using MOVES2014 vs. MOVES2010b
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2011 Sensitivity Modeling
• CAMx 2011b Base Case modeling
– Integrate model improvements in CAMx emissions
and other inputs
– Conduct CAMx 2011b 36/12/4 km base case and MPE
• Deliverables:
– Work Plan describing sensitivity tests to be performed
– PowerPoint presentations on each sensitivity test
– Memorandum on all sensitivity tests and 2011b
updates
– Updated CAMx 2011b base case I/O loaded on 3SDW
• Schedule: Oct 2014 – Mar 2015
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