AP Rigor Gap Analysis

Report
iLearnNYC VAP Program
Opportunities for Rigor
A Data-Driven Discussion
Agenda & Table of Contents
 College Board Pathway: Strategies for Progress
 Readiness Benchmarks
 Advancing Student Success
 Executive Summary
 AP Potential
 Advanced Placement Overview
 Participation and Performance Reports
 College Board Support & Wrap Up
2
College Board Pathway: Strategies for Progress
© 2012 The College College Board, AP, Advanced Placement, Advanced Placement Program, SAT and the acorn logo are registered
trademarks of the College Board. Skills Insight is a trademark owned by the College Board. PSAT/NMSQT is a registered trademark of
the College Board and National Merit Scholarship Program. All other products and services
PSAT/NMSQT Resources
http://www.collegeboard.com/html/psattools/index.html?excmpid=CBF9-ED-1-psat
College Readiness Benchmarks
GRADE 10: 133 GRADE 11: 142
GRADE 8: 11.8
Readistep - PSAT/NMSQT - SAT
College Readiness Benchmarks
Critical
Reading
Mathematics
Writing
Composite
Score
Grade 8 Readistep
3(.)8
3(.)7
3(.)8
11(.)8
Grade 10 –
PSAT/NMSQT
42
44
42
133
Grade 11 –
PSAT/NMSQT
45
47
45
142
Grade 12 - SAT
50(0)
50(0)
50(0)
155(0)
7
Advancing Student Success
Measure and Report College Level Rigor
AP® is a rigorous academic program built on the
commitment, passion and hard work of students and
educators
Comprised of more than 30 courses across multiple subject
areas
Enables students to earn college credit or placement while
still in high school, providing cost savings
Executive Summary
Criteria
There are 1,077 unmet opportunities for students in
NYCDOE Districts X with high potential (70% likelihood of
getting a 3, 4, or 5) to participate in the related AP course.
NYCDOE
District X
Empty Seats
More Sections
New Courses
•Course offered
•PSAT administered
•Exam data submitted to
College Board
•Minimum of 25
students with 70%
three-exam constrained
AP Potential
•Estimated capacity
minus estimated
enrollment >=10
•Course offered
•PSAT administered
•School enrollment data
available
•Minimum of 25 students
with 70% 3 exam
constrained AP Potential
•APP students minus
estimated enrollment >=
10
•APP students minus
estimated capacity >= 10
•Course not offered
•PSAT administered
•Minimum of 15
students with 70%
three-exam constrained
AP Potential
402 Seats
71 Seats
9
640 Seats
Executive Summary Template – Hidden Slide
There are 1, 077 students in District X Schools with high potential to be successful in AP (70% likelihood of getting a
3, 4, or 5) but are not in AP today. This is called the Opportunity for Rigor Gap.
Our mission is to ensure that all students have access to a 21st century education that includes the use of
appropriate tools of technology. In order to achieve this goal, our office engages schools in professional
development strategies that support educators and supervisors in best practices for successfully integrating
technology into classroom instruction and how these tools can best enhance school administration.
– NYCDOE Office of Instructional Technology
There are three high-impact strategies that you can implement to close this gap:
Fill the seat gaps in AP courses that are already offered:
Biology, Calculus, Chemistry, World History and English
Literature.
• These courses can help satisfy NY standards requirements
while at the same time increasing college readiness and
potentially saving students money who earn scores of 3 or
higher.
Add additional sections of currently offered AP courses
• With teachers already trained and appropriately resourced,
adding new sections is a cost effective strategy for increasing
AP participation.
Create courses for Macroeconomics, Psychology, World
History, Art History and English Language at the schools
in which they are not currently offered.
• Offering additional opportunities to infuse a diverse range of
college-level rigor across all New York High Schools through
VAP can assist in higher graduation rates and lower
remediation rates when students matriculate in higher
education.
10
How do we measure the
Opportunity for Rigor Gap?
How can you find these students at your schools?
AP Potential is a metric that indicates students’ potential to score a 3 or
higher on specific AP exams based on their PSAT/NMSQT (PN) scores
• AP Potential is based on proven research
(internal and external) that analyzed the
performance of more than a million students
and found strong correlations between PN
score and AP Exam results.
• Studies conducted in 1998, 2006, 2007, and
2011.
• Expectancy Tables provide probabilities of
scoring 3 or better based on PSAT
performance levels.
• AP Potential rosters can be customized to
expand your AP population
12
Identify students with high potential of being successful in AP
with PSAT and AP Potential
Helps schools grow their AP programs by identifying students
who have the potential to succeed in rigorous AP courses.
• Online tool that generates rosters of students likely to
score 3 or better on a given AP Exam
• Free for all schools that administer the PSAT/NMSQT (PN)
• Designed to expand access to AP and ensure that no
student with the potential to succeed is overlooked
• School can customize the list and define the pool of
students based on likelihood level (e.g. students are 50%
likely to score a 3/4/5 vs. 70% likely)
• The Tool provides a list of students that fit this criteria
and are strong candidates for AP
• We provide specialized training to your District on this
tool
13
AP Potential Tips
Export data into an Excel
spreadsheet to make it easy
to read and use.
Create letters to parents.
AP Potential provides
sample letters in English
and Spanish.
There are strong correlations between the AP Exam and
specific PN sections
Exam
Correlation
PN Section(s)
Art History
.575
V+W
Biology
656
Calculus AB
Exam
Correlation
PN Section(s)
Latin
.471
W
V+M
Macroeconomics
.566
V+M
.530
M
Microeconomics
.549
V+M
Calculus BC
.484
M
Music Theory
.477
M
Chemistry
.599
M
Physics B
.540
M
Computer Sci A
.511
M
Physics C: E&M
.455
M
English Lang
.732
V+W
Physics C: Mechanics
.572
M
English Lit
.727
V+W
Psychology
.624
V+M+W
Environmental Sci
.632
V+M
Spanish Literature
.411
W
European History
.586
V+M+W
Statistics
.617
V+M
GoPo: Comparative
.523
V+M
US History
.603
V+M+W
GoPo: United States
.622
V+M+W
World History
.584
V+M
Human Geography
.606
V+M
Note: The R-squared ranges between 17% and 54%
PN Sections: V=Verbal, M=Math, and W=Writing
Source: Updating AP Potential™ Expectancy Tables Involving PSAT/NMSQT® Writing – Ewing, Camara, Millsap, and Milewski
15
PSAT/NMSQT is more strongly correlated with AP success than other
measures used by school districts in enrollment policies
 PSAT (.56 correlation) stronger correlation than cumulative GPA (.28):
“When considering all of the 29 AP Examinations that exhibited a moderate to strong
correlation with PSAT/NMSQT scores, the average correlation between AP Examination
grades and HSGPA (cumulative high school GPA) had a magnitude of .28. By contrast, the
average correlation between the same AP Examinations and the PSAT/NMSQT scores used
for computing the expectancy tables was much higher at .56.”1
 PSAT (.56 correlation) stronger correlation than relevant course grades (.25):
The correlations between AP Examination grades and relevant course grades ranged from
.08 (i.e., Studio Art: 2-D Design and Studio Art: Drawing) to .36 (i.e., Statistics). When
considering all of the 29 AP Examinations that exhibited a moderate to strong correlation
with PSAT/NMSQT scores, the average correlation between AP Examination grades and
relevant course grades was .25. This average was again well below the average correlation
between AP Examination grades and the PSAT/NMSQT scores used to compute the
expectancy tables.
1-
The Relationship Between PSAT/NMSQT® Scores and AP® Examination Grades: A Follow-Up Study, Maureen Ewing, Wayne J. Camara, and Roger E.
Millsap, 2006, pg. 10
16
However, few districts use AP Potential to recommend a students for AP - leaving
many high-potential students out of rigorous courses (Opportunity for Rigor Gap)
What factors do you use in recommending a student to enroll in an AP course?
Select all that apply
Source: 2012 AP Participation Survey: 13,262 respondents
17
Among students with high AP potential, Latino and African American
students are the least likely to gain access to AP
Note: “AP Potential” is defined here as a 70% or greater likelihood of scoring a 3 or higher on an AP Exam. These data are based on projections from the 2 million students
PSAT/NMSQT test takers in the class of 2010
Did Not Take Recommended AP
Took Recommended AP
42%
58%
Asian
38%
62%
White
30%
70%
Hispanic/Latino
80%
20%
Black/African American
18
18
You can easily identify students with high potential of being
successful in AP with PSAT and AP Potential
Helps schools grow their AP programs by
identifying students who have the potential to
succeed in rigorous AP courses.
• Online tool that generates rosters of students likely to score
3 or better on a given AP Exam
• Free for all schools that administer the PSAT/NMSQT (PN)
• Designed to expand access to AP and ensure that no student
with the potential to succeed in overlooked
• School can customize the list and define the pool of students
based on likelihood level (e.g. students are 50% likely to
score a 3/4/5 vs. 70% likely)
• The Tool provides a list of students that fit this criteria and
are strong candidates for AP
• We can provide specialized training to your District on this
tool
19
What is the Opportunity for Rigor Gap
in NYCDOE Districts 17 & 20?
AP Course Offerings and AP Potential
AP Potential is predictive in 25 AP Course Offerings
Science
Mathematics
English
Social Studies:
Electives:
6 Courses
3 Courses
2 Courses
9 Courses
5 Courses
• Biology
• Calculus AB
• Chemistry
• Calculus BC
• Physics B
• Statistics
• English Language
and Composition
• European History
• Art History
• US History
• Computer Science A
• English Literature
and Composition
• World History
• Physics C –
Mechanics
• Human Geography
• Physics C –
Electricity &
Magnetism
• Comparative
Government &
Politics
• US Government &
Politics
• Environmental
Science
• Psychology
• Microeconomics
• Macroeconomics
21
• Latin
• Music Theory
• Spanish Literature
AP Course Offerings
English: 2 Courses
English Language and Composition
English Literature and Composition
Mathematics: 3 Courses
Calculus AB
Calculus BC
Statistics
Social Studies: 9 Courses
European History
US History
World History
Human Geography
Comparative Government & Politics
US Government & Politics
Psychology
Microeconomics
Macroeconomics
Science: 6 Courses
Biology
Chemistry
Physics B
Physics C –Mechanics
Physics C – Electricity & Magnetism
Environmental Science
Electives: 5 Courses
Art History
Computer Science A
Latin
Music Theory
Spanish Literature
22
How can AP help you close the Opportunity for Rigor
Gap?
1. Training for counseling staff on using data to identify students
2. Start Up Kit for school leaders - Process and Timelines for successfully
adding new AP courses to course catalog
3. Recruitment Toolkit for your teachers and school leaders - best practice
strategies for increasing enrollment in AP Courses
4. Cost-effective professional development for teachers that will start new
AP courses, access to teacher community and resources to get started
5. Outreach to students/parents/community based organizations about
value of AP and asking them to get engaged in college readiness
6. Outreach to counselors
23
How can AP and College Board help you close the
Opportunity for Rigor Gap?
1. Training for counseling staff on using data to identify students
2. Start Up Kit for school leaders - Processes and Timelines for successfully
adding new AP courses to course catalog
3. Recruitment Toolkit for your teachers and school leaders - best practice
strategies for increasing enrollment in AP Courses
4. Cost-effective professional development for teachers that will start new
AP courses, access to teacher community and resources to get started
5. Outreach to students/parents/community based organizations about
value of AP and asking them to get engaged in college readiness
6. Outreach to counselors
24
25
Thank You!
Q&A
Fernanda H. Meier
Sr. Educational Manager
K12 Services, NYC
Phone: (646) 937-2006
[email protected]
26
How do we measure the
Opportunity for Rigor Gap?
Appendix
HS Graduation Requirements
New York
(I) English Language Arts: 4 units
(II.) Mathematics: 3 units
(III) Science: 4 units 3 units of "commencement level science,"
including 1 unit life sciences, 1 unit physical sciences and 1 unit
either life sciences or physical sciences
(IV) Social Sciences: 3 units 1 unit American history, .5 unit each in
"participation in government" and "economics or their
equivalent."

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