FACTOR 4 AND FACTOR 10

Report
Technology and sustainable development
FACTOR 4 AND FACTOR 10
Isabelle Sjöberg Alesia Nahibina Denis Nazarov
Tenel Burkitbaev
Evgeny Bogatikov
Åsa Larsson
Xingqiang Song
Fabrizio Meloni Frida Pollak -
SITUATION TODAY
•
Violent and life-threatening reactions of the ecosphere to the stresses
imposed by human activities are still growing in all parts of the world;
•
Humanity continues to live in an increasingly dangerous and unsustainable
environment;
•
More people are exposed to polluted air and have less clean water available
than ever before and fertile soil is eroding fast;
•
Fresh water supplies are dwindling, bio-diversity is still rapidly declining, and
so are forested areas;
•
Environmental damage is caused not only by pollution but also by the
processes involved in extracting natural resources. Extracting resources is
the more significant cause, not only because all materials taken into an
economy end up sooner or later as emissions and wastes, but also because
technical displacement of natural resources causes irreversible changes by
itself.
Alesia
SITUATION TODAY
• On the average, more than 90% of the resources
harvested and displaced in nature are wasted on the way
to
producing
food,
machines,
vehicles,
and
infrastructures;
• On the average, close to 100 tons of non-renewable are
consumed every year per person to support the current
life-style in industrialized countries.
SO, REACHING SUSTAINABILITY DEMANDS AN
ABSOLUTE REDUCTION IN RESOURCES USE AT
LEAST 50%
Alesia
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENT
TECHNOLOGY (1960-2000)
•
•
•
•
•
DILUITION
END-OF-PIPE
RECYCLING
CLEANER PRODUCTION
ECO-INTELLIGENT
(1960)
(1970)
(1980)
(1990)
(2000)
Alesia
FACTOR 4.
“DOING MORE WITH LESS"
• Accomplish everything we do today as well as
now, or better, with only one fourth the energy
and materials we presently use.
• The use of resources will be more equally
divided between nations.
• But we need to be more efficient if we want to be
ecologically sustainable.
Åsa
HOW CAN WE BE MORE EFFICIENT?
• Develop more efficient products
• Products which last longer
Second hand
High quality
Upgrade
• Substitution
• Multipurpose
• Cooperation
Åsa
New technologies and new ways of
linking them together.
Big savings can then become even
cheaper than small savings.
Example : Super efficient car costs less to
build than normal.
Åsa
REDESIGN THE CAR FROM SCRATCH
• Ultra-strong yet
crashworthy materials
• Advanced composites
• Better design, good
aerodynamic
• Better tiers, less
weight
• Hybrid
Åsa
HOW TO DO IT?
• Increasing Efficiency and Productivity
MAIN CRITICISM:
• It can be expensive
ANSWER:
• It is possible reducing the wastes
• Save resources and money at the same time
Fabrizio
SOME NUMBERS
HOW MUCH IS WASTED?
- 93 %
of the materials used never end up in saleable products
- 80 %
of the products become wastes after a single use
- 99 %
of the materials used become a waste within 6 weeks of
sale
- 2000$/y lost by an average American for energy wastes
HOW MUCH CAN BE SAVED?
- 10÷30 %
in the 1970s
- 90÷99 %
in the 1990s
ECONOMIC CONVENIENCE
Fabrizio
PROBLEMS TO DO IT
• Conventional education and the high costs for
replace personnel;
• Inertia of capital owners and customers.
• Discriminatory financial criteria
• Prices that sometimes distort actual costs to the
environment and to the future generations;
• Obsolete regulations that discourage efficiency;
• The universal practice to regulate utilities for increasing
use and consumption.
A change in the culture and behaviour of society is
strongly needed
Fabrizio
FACTOR 10
• Factor 10 is an absolute target for
lowering the distribution of natural resources =
increase the resource productivity
• ”rich” countries must make environmental space
available for the ”poor” countries by at least a
Factor 10
• Factor 10 includes changes in technology,
culture, economy, and institutional organizations
Frida
DIFFERENT TOOLS FOR MEASURING
• MIPS = the material input per total unit of services
• FIPS = the surface coverage per unit service
• TOPS = the eco-toxic exposure equivalent per unit
service
• S/MI = the measure of resource productivity
• Ecological rucksack = the total quantity (in kg) of
natural material used minus the products own weight
Frida
TOOLS FOR REACHING FACTOR 10
1. Changing of environmental policies.
•
Present environmental policies: end-of-pipe
solutions, treating or re-cycling solutions.
•
Changing of focus of environmental policies
from tail to front-end solutions is needed.
Denis, Tenel
2. Changing of energy consumtion
•
•
•
•
For changing in energy consumption pattern
less resource intensive fuel should be used:
wind power, solar power.
Great attention should be taken on renewable
fuel – fuel with low MI.
Dematerialising an economy by Factor 10 will
lead to an energy reduction of roughly a factor
5 overall.
Achieving Factor 10 therefore means the end
of the fossil age as well as the end of the
debate about nuclear power.
Denis, Tenel
3. Minimization of rebound effect.
•
Rebound (”boomerang”) effects – effects
that counteract reductions of resource use,
waste avoidance and emission decreases,
achieved on the level of individual
production and consumption.
•
Example: energy savings by improved car
engines are frequently “eaten-up” by bigger
cars, faster driving and longer distances.
Denis, Tenel
4. Population growth limitation.
•
The larger the world population becomes, the
fewer natural recourses are available.
•
Limitations in population growth are needed
(as in China now).
•
The tendency to “singles” is very dangerous.
Denis, Tenel
5. Change in psychology.
•
Change in psychology is needed: we should
change our consuming pattern from goods to
services.
•
We should forget about stuff like prestige and
boasting, to buy things only on the base of
their practical parameters, not fashion or
prestige.
Denis, Tenel
6. New innovation and design.
•
Massive technological and social innovation
as well as re-direction of consumption are
unavoidable.
•
Basic requirement of eco-design: to generate
as much units of service of utility (and fun) as
possible out of the smallest possible quantity
of natural resources (including rucksacks) for
the longest possible time period.
Denis, Tenel
7. Market, fiscal reforms and employment
•
•
•
•
•
Currently market prices are too low to
stimulate development of factor 10 and more.
Chances and timing of reaching Factor 10
depends to a considerable degree upon
increasing the relative prices of natural
resources. The higher prices, the more will
competition among producers push innovation
toward dematerialised products and services.
Tax-relieves for products with low-MIPS
Shifting sources of public reveneu from labor to
sources.
Shifting from a throughput economy to one where
longevity of products becomes the standart of
success.
Denis, Tenel
8. World trade and foreign aid.
•
•
•
Most products and services traded on the
world market today are “high-MIPS” in nature.
The infrastructures, buildings, products, food
and services provided to developing
countries today within the context of foreign
aid must be viewed as ecological time
bombs.
Foreign aid policies and export to developing
countries must change as soon as possible.
Denis, Tenel
ECO-EFFICIENCY
• A concept for improving the ecological character
of production related activities while
maintaining/improving their profitability
• Both economy and ecology included
• An operational concept: less nature use for more
output
• Compatible with MIPS and factor 10
Isabelle
LIMITATIONS
• Refers exclusively to the production sector
• Does not consider importance of
minimising the use of space
Isabelle
ECO-INTELLIGENCE
• Includes material, energy, surface coverage and
dispersion of toxic materials – from cradle to
grave
• Eco-intelligent
- production systems
- economies
- consumption
Isabelle
CONCLUSIONS
• Sustainable development includes not only the
ecological sustainability, but the economic,
technological and social sustainability as well.
Sustainable development of natural resources is
imperative for society.
• The chances for moving toward sustainability
depend critically upon the increase of the
resource productivity of all economic activities.
Xingqiang Song
• Factor 4 and factor 10 are two approaches and
the latter is a necessary strategy for sustainable
development. They predict that we can vastly
increase our resource efficiency.
• Factor 10 is not an economic goal. It indicates
how many industrialized countries have to
increase their resource productivity to approach
sustainability from the point of life cycle.
Xingqiang Song
• A factor of 4 to 10-Fold increase in resource
efficiency has been proposed for industrial
countries for the next 30 to 50 years in order to
cut by half the global resource requirements.
• The aim to increase resource productivity 4 to
10-Fold has attracted wide attention. Several
countries included the aim in political
programmes and many countries take positive
attitude towards them.
Xingqiang Song
• However, the implementation of adequate
management measures and the monitoring of
effectiveness of many measures will depend on
available analytical instruments.
• Factor 10 is a system innovation. Resource
productivity improvement need technological
innovations, infrastructure change and change
of consumer lifestyle.
Xingqiang Song
• Sustainable development is a global issue. Only
when stakeholder including companies and
governments indeed realize the present awful
situations, can some solutions (for example, the
factor 4 and 10) be carried out smoothly, widely
and feasibly.
Xingqiang Song
Technology and sustainable development
FACTOR 4 AND FACTOR 10
Isabelle Sjöberg Alesia Nahibina Denis Nazarov
Tenel Burkitbaev
Evgeny Bogatikov
Åsa Larsson
Xingqiang Song
Fabrizio Meloni Frida Pollak -

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