Chapter 1 - Riksbanken

Report
Chapter 1
Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied
dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3
months
Per cent
2,5
Start of the
Finanskrisen
financial
startar crisis
LehmanLehman
kraschen
GreklandsGreece
krisen
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
Chart 1:1
jul-10
maj-10
mar-10
jan-10
nov-09
sep-09
jul-09
maj-09
mar-09
jan-09
nov-08
sep-08
jul-08
maj-08
mar-08
jan-08
nov-07
sep-07
jul-07
maj-07
mar-07
jan-07
-0,5
Source: Bloomberg
Swedish and international stress
index
10
Lehman Brothers
8
6
4
Bear Sterns
Greece
2
0
-2
jan07
apr07
jul07
okt07
jan08
apr08
jul08
okt08
International stress index
Chart 1:2
jan09
apr09
jul09
okt09
jan10
apr10
jul10
Swedish stress index
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Bloomberg and the Riksbank
The difference between interest rates on ten year
government bonds and the German government
bond with the same maturity
Basis points
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
jan-08 apr-08
jul-08
Ireland
Chart: 1:3
okt-08 jan-09 apr-09
Sweden
jul-09
Portugal
okt-09 jan-10 apr-10
Spain
jul-10
Greece
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Implied stock market volatility
Per cent, 10 day moving average
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
96
97
98
99
Sweden - OM X
Chart 1:4
00
01
02
Europe - STOXX
03
04
05
06
USA - S&P 500
07
08
09
10
11
Historical average, OM X
Source: Reuters EcoWin
CDS-premiums on European
governments and corporations
Basis points
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
okt-09
nov-09
dec-09
jan-10
feb-10
SovX (governments)
Chart 1:4
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
iTraxx (companies)
Source: Bloomberg
Government CDS premiums
Basis points
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
aug-08 okt-08 dec-08 feb-09 apr-09 jun-09 aug-09 okt-09 dec-09 feb-10 apr-10 jun-10
Ireland
Chart 1:6
Sweden
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Stock market developments
Index, 1 January 2008 =100
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan-08
jul-08
Sweden - OM XS30
Chart 1:7
jan-09
USA - S&P 500
jul-09
Europe - STOXX
jan-10
jul-10
Emerging markets - M SCI EM
Sources: Reuters EcoWin
Risk premiums on the interbank
market,
3 months
Basis points
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan-07
jul-07
USA
Chart 1:8
jan-08
jul-08
Euro area
jan-09
UK
jul-09
jan-10
jul-10
Sweden
Soure: Reuters EcoWin
Central banks balance sheets
Per cent of GDP
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
jan-07
jul-07
ECB
Chart 1:9
jan-08
jul-08
Bank of England
jan-09
Federal Reserve
jul-09
jan-10
jul-10
The Riksbank
Sources: Respective central bank
Federal Reserve balance sheet
USD billions
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
aug-07
dec-07
apr-08
Total Assets
Chart 1:10
aug-08
dec-08
apr-09
Securities Held Outright
aug-09
dec-09
apr-10
aug-10
All Liquidity Facilities
Source: Federal Reserve
The Riksbank loans and the guarantee
programme’s outstanding volumes
SEK billion
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
jun-15
jan-15
aug-14
mar-14
okt-13
maj-13
dec-12
jul-12
feb-12
sep-11
apr-11
nov-10
jun-10
jan-10
aug-09
mar-09
okt-08
0
Issuance in SEK guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
Issuance in foreign currency guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
The Riksbank's SEK lending
The Riksbank's USD lending (in SEK)
Chart 1:11
Sources: The Riksbank and Swedish National Debt Office
Budget balance in selected EU
countries
Percentage of GDP
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2006
2007
Greece
Chart B1
Ireland
2008
Italy
2009
Portugal
2010
Spain
2011
Sweden
Source: Reuters Ecowin
CDS premiums (5 years) for selected
EU countries
Basis points
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
aug-08
dec-08
Greece
Chart B2
apr-09
Ireland
aug-09
Italy
dec-09
Portugal
apr-10
aug-10
Spain
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Difference between yields on mortgage bonds and
govermnent bond yields with five year maturity
Basis points
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan-07
Chart 1:12
jul-07
jan-08
jul-08
jan-09
jul-09
jan-10
jul-10
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
The difference between the interbank rate
and the expected policy rate of different
maturites
Basis points
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
jan-07
Chart 1:13
jul-07
jan-08
jul-08
jan-09
jul-09
1 month
3 month
6 month
9 month
jan-10
jul-10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Indicative breakdown of the Swedish
riskpremium, 3 months
Basis points
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
dec-06
jun-07
dec-07
jun-08
Credit risk premium
Chart 1:14
dec-08
jun-09
dec-09
jun-10
Liquidity risk premium
Source: The Riksbank
EUR/SEK cross currency basis spread, 5
years
Basis points
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
jan-02
Chart 1:15
jan-03
jan-04
jan-05
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
jan-11
Source: Bloomberg
Credit spreads for US corporate
bonds
Basis points
1000
2200
800
1700
600
1200
400
700
200
200
0
jan-05
jan-06
Aaa (left scale)
Chart: 1:16
jan-07
jan-08
Bbb (left scale)
jan-09
jan-10
-300
jan-11
High yield (right scale)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Credit spreads for European corporate
bonds
Basis points
500
2500
400
2000
300
1500
200
1000
100
500
0
jan-06
0
jan-07
Aaa (left scale)
Chart 1:17
jan-08
Bbb (left scale)
jan-09
jan-10
jan-11
High yieald (right scale)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Chapter 2
The Swedish Banks lending per
borrower category
September 2009, per cent of total lending
Households ; 40%
Property companies;
43%
Companies excluding
property companies;
18%
Chart 2:1
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The Swedish Banks lending per
geographical area
September 2009, per cent of total lending
Other countries; 9%
Baltic countries; 5%
Sweden; 50%
Other Nordic
countries; 35%
Chart 2:2
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Household borrowing from monetary
financial institutions
Annual percentage change
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
dec-95
dec-98
dec-01
Three month, y-o-y
Chart 2:3
dec-04
dec-07
dec-10
Annual percentage change
Source: The Riksbank
Mortgage equity witdrawals, percentage of
disposable income
Per cent
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002 2003
Sweden
Chart 2:4
2004 2005 2006
United Kingdom
2007 2008
2009 2010
Australia
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
House prices
Purchase Price Coefficient
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
0,9
jan-03
jan-04
jan-05
jan-06
K/ T ratio
Chart 2:5
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
jan-11
Seasonal adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Tenant-owned apartment prices, threemonth moving average
SEK per square metre
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Sweden
Göteborg region
Sweden, exculding metropolitan areas
Chart 2:6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Stockholm region
M almö region
Source: www.maklarstatistik.se
Time to sale in Sweden
Number of days, median
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
jan-08
jul-08
jan-09
Single-family dwellings
Chart 2:7
jul-09
jan-10
jul-10
Tenant-owned apartments
Sources: Hemnet and www.maklarstatistik.se
Number of housing starts
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
81
Chart 2:8
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Source: Statistics Sweden
Household debt and post-tax
interest expenditure
Percentage of disposable income
220
22
200
20
180
18
160
16
140
14
120
12
100
10
80
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
82
85
88
91
Debt ratio (left scale)
Chart 2:9
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
Interest ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Households' debt ratio in a number of
municipalities and in Sweden
Per cent
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
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Chart 2:10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Breakdown of households' new mortgages
by fixed interest periods
Per cent
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
96
97
98
99
Variable rate
Chart 2:11
00
01
02
03
Fixed rate < 5 years
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Fixed rate > 5 years
Source: The Riksbank
Disposable income of households, final
consumption expenditure and savings
SEK million
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1993
Chart 2:12
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: Statistics Sweden
Corporate borrowing from credit
institutions and fixed gross investment
Annual percentage change
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investment
Forecast borrowing FSR 2010:2
Fixed gross investment
Forecast investments M PR February 2010
Chart 2:13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Corporate borrowing from credit
institutions and their securities funding
SEK Billion
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
Swedish credit institutions
Debt securities abroad
Chart 2:14
2002
2003
2004
2005
Debt securities in Sweden
Trade credits
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Foreign credit institutions
Source: The Riksbank
Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed
companies
Ratio
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999
Chart: 2:15
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Profitability and debt/total assets ratio in
Swedish listed companies
Per cent
12
75
70
9
65
6
60
3
55
0
Profitability (left hand side)
Chart 2:16
dec-10
dec-09
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
dec-99
50
Debt/ total assets ratio (right hand side)
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Breakdown of corporate borrowing by
period of fixed interest
Per cent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
Less than 1 year
Chart 2:17
2005
2006
Between 1 and 5 years
2007
2008
2009
M ore than 5 years
Sources: Riksbanken
Expected default frequency (EDF),
outcome och forceast
Per cent
1,8
1,8
1,6
1,6
1,4
1,4
1,2
1,2
1,0
1,0
0,8
0,8
0,6
0,6
0,4
0,4
0,2
0,2
0,0
0,0
1997
2000
EDF
Chart 2:18
2003
Forecast FSR 2010:1
2006
2009
2012
Forecast FSR 2009:2
Sources: Moody´s KMV och Riksbanken
Transaction volumes in the Swedish
commercial property market
SEK billion
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999
Chart 2:19
2000 2001 2002 2003
Swedish investors
Swedish investors Q 2-4 2010
2004
2005
2006 2007 2008 2009
Foreign investors
Foreign investors Q 2-4 2010
2010
Sources: Savills and the Riksbank
Real prices of office premises in city
centres
Index, 1981 = 100
500
400
300
200
100
0
81
83
85
87
89
Stockholm
Chart 2:20
91
93
95
97
Göteborg
99
01
03
05
07
09
M almö
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Average yield levels for modern office
premises in city centres
Per cent
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
dec-86
dec-89
dec-92
Stockholm
Chart 2:21
dec-95
Göteborg
dec-98
M almö
dec-01
dec-04
dec-07
dec-10
Five-year government bond yield
Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWin
Component factors for annual change in
prices for offices in central Stockholm
Per cent
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Implicit risk premium
Short-term rent expectations
Chart 2:22
Rents
Annual change in prices
Ten-year Government bond yield
Sources: Newsec, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Vacancy rate for office premises in city
centres
Per cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
dec-88 dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10
Stockholm
Chart 2:23
Göteborg
M almö
Source: Newsec
The property companies’ credit
structure
SEK million
40 000
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
0-1 year
1-2 years
2-3 years
jun-09
Chart 2:24
3-4 years
4-5 years
> 5 years
dec-09
Sources: Reports of the 17 property comp. listed on the NASDAQ OMX Stockholm A-list, q4, 2009 and the Riksbank.
GDP in the Nordic countries and
Germany
Quarterly changes in per cent
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
mar
jun
sep
dec
2007
jun
sep
dec
mar
2008
Denmark
Chart 2:25
mar
Norway
jun
sep
dec
2009
Finland
Germany
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Households’ borrowings
Annual percentage change
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2003
2004
Sweden
Chart 2:26
2005
Denmark
2006
2007
Norway
2008
Finland
2009
2010
Germany
Sources: ECB and national statistics offices
Real house prices in the Nordic
countries and Germany
Index, March 2004 = 100
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
mar-04
mar-05
Sweden
Chart 2:27
mar-06
mar-07
Denmark
Norway
mar-08
Finland
mar-09
mar-10
Germany
Sources: the BIS Database, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Companies’ borrowings
Annual percentage change
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2004
2005
Sweden
Chart 2:28
2006
2007
Denmark
Norway
2008
2009
Finland
Germany
2010
Sources: The ECB and national statistics agencies
Corporate defaults
Twelve-month moving average, index, average year 2007 = 100
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
00
01
02
Sweden
Chart 2:29
03
04
Denmark
05
06
Norway
07
08
Finland
09
10
11
Germany
Sources: National statistics agencies and the Riksbank
Expected default frequency for companies
in the Nordic countries and Germany
Per cent
3
2
1
0
jan-08
jul-08
Sweden (355)
Finland (116)
Chart 2:30
jan-09
jul-09
Denmark (119)
Germany (656)
jan-10
jul-10
Norway (177)
Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the Riksbank
Expected default frequency for property
companies in the Nordic countries and
Germany
Per cent
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Sweden (19)
Chart 2:31
Denmark (10)
Norway (7)
Finland (6)
mar-10
jan-10
nov-09
sep-09
jul-09
maj-09
mar-09
jan-09
nov-08
sep-08
jul-08
maj-08
0
Germany (64)
Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the Riksbank
GDP
Annual percentage change
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
98
99
00
01
02
Estonia
Chart 2:32
03
04
Latvia
05
06
07
08
09
10
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Nominal wages
Annual percentage change
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
Estonia
Chart 2:33
dec-04
dec-05
Latvia
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Unemployment
Per cent
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
00
01
02
03
04
Estonia
Chart 2:34
05
Latvia
06
07
08
09
10
11
Lithuania
Source: Eurostat
Terms of trade
Index: March 2000 = 100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Estonia
Chart 2:35
Latvia
mar-10
jul-09
nov-08
mar-08
jul-07
nov-06
mar-06
jul-05
nov-04
mar-04
jul-03
nov-02
mar-02
jul-01
nov-00
mar-00
60
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Current account
Percentage of GDP
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
Estonia
Chart: 2:36
dec-04
Latvia
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
dec-10
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Harmonised index for consumer
prices
Annual percentage change
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
00
01
02
03
04
Estonia
Chart 2:37
05
Latvia
06
07
08
09
10
11
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Real exchange rates
Index, 2000 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
Estonia
Chart:2:38
dec-04
dec-05
Latvia
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
dec-10
Lithuania
Source: BIS
Liabilities from banks operating in the
Baltic countries to foreign financial
institutions
National currencies; Index, December 2008 = 100
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Estonia
Chart: 2:39
Latvia
dec-09
sep-09
jun-09
mar-09
dec-08
sep-08
jun-08
mar-08
dec-07
sep-07
jun-07
mar-07
40
Lithuania
Sources: National central banks
Household borrowing
Annual percentage change
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
jan-01
jan-02
jan-03
jan-04
jan-05
Estonia
Chart 2:40
jan-06
Latvia
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
jan-11
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Corporate borrowing
Annual percentage change
60
40
20
0
-20
jan-01
jan-02
jan-03
Estonia
Chart 2:41
jan-04
jan-05
Latvia
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
jan-11
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Households´and companies´debts in
relation to GDP
Per cent
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
94
95
96
97
98
Estonia
Chart 2:42
99
00
Latvia
01
02
03
Lithuania
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sweden
Sources: National central banks and Reuters Ecowin
Late payments
Per cent of outstanding loans
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Estonia (more than 60 days)
Lithuania (more than 60 days)
Chart 2:43
dec-10
dec-09
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
0
Latvia (more than 90 days)
Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission och Lietuvos Bankas
Houseprices
Index, January 2006 = 100
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan-05
jan-06
Estonia
Chart 2:44
jan-07
jan-08
Latvia
jan-09
jan-10
jan-11
Lithuania
Sources: Latio, Ober Haus, Arco Real Estate Land Board and Lietuvos Bankas
Chapter 3
The major Swedish banks' assets and
liabilities per currency, December 2009
SEK billion
6 000
5 000
Assets
Liabilites
4 000
Liabilites
Assets
3 000
2 000
Liabilites
Assets
1 000
0
SEK
Chart 3:1
EUR
USD
GDP Sweden 2009
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The total assets of the major Swedish
banks in Sweden and abroad, March 2010
SEK billion
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
Handelsbanken
Nordea
SEB
Sweden
Chart 3:2
Swedbank
Summa
Total
Abroad
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The banks' earnings
SEK billion, rolling four quarters
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
mars 06
mars 07
Net interest income
Net result of financial items
Chart 3:3
mars 08
mars 09
mars 10
Net commission income
Other income
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Profit before loan losses and loan losses
(net) in the major Swedish banks
Totalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 March 2010
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
dec-90
dec-92
dec-94
dec-96
dec-98
dec-00
Profit before loan losses
Chart 3:4
dec-02
dec-04
dec-06
dec-08
dec-10
Loan losses, net
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Annual lending growth at the major
Swedish banks
Per cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
05:4
Chart 3:5
06:2
06:4
07:2
07:4
08:2
08:4
09:2
09:4
10:2
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Net interest income in relation to interestbearing assets, the net interest income
margin
Per cent
1,9
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
97:4
Chart 3:6
98:4
99:4
00:4
01:4
02:4
03:4
04:4
05:4
06:4
07:4
08:4
09:4
10:4
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
related net commission income, Stockholm
Stock Exchange turnover and the stock
market index
Index, Q 1 2003 = 100
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
03:1
04:1
05:1
Asset management-related income
Chart 3:7
06:1
07:1
OMX index
08:1
Turnover OMX
09:1
10:1
Brokerage income
Source: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the Riksbank
Allocation of total assets
Per cent, December 2009
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Handelsbanken
Loans to public
Chart 3:8
Nordea
Loans to credit institutions
SEB
Debt securities
Swedbank
Derivatives
Other assets
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Swedish major banks' lending in the Baltic
countries
Left axis EUR billion, right axis per cent
45
30
40
25
35
20
30
15
25
10
20
5
15
0
10
-5
5
-10
0
-15
07:1
07:2
07:3
07:4
08:1
08:2
Lending to the public (left axis)
Chart 3:9
08:3
08:4
09:1
09:2
09:3
09:4
10:1
Annual percentage change (right axis)
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Market shares of lending in the Baltic
countries
Per cent, March 2010
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Estonia
Swedbank
Chart 3:10
Latvia
SEB
Nordea
Lithuania
Övriga
Others
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Geographical distribution of loan losses, in
the period second quarter 2009 to first
quarter 2010
Per cent
10%
19%
22%
49%
Sweden
Chart 3:11
Other Nordic countries excl Sweden
The Baltic countries
Other countries
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Loan losses per quarter
Percentage of lending at the start of the respective quarters
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
08:1
08:2
08:3
Group provisions
Reversals
Chart 3:12
08:4
09:1
09:2
Individual provisions
Recoveries
09:3
09:4
10:1
Write-offs
Loan-loss level
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Chart 3:13
UB
Ci
S
tig
ro
up
Sw
SE
B
ed
Ha
ba
nd
nk
el
sb
an
ke
K
BC n
Ba
nc
Ba
o
n
Sa
nt k
Ba
an
de
rc
la
ys r
B
Cr
ed ank
i
t
Cr
ed Suis
se
i
So t A
cie gri
co
te
Ge le
ne
ra
le
LB
B
Un W
In
iC
te
re
sa
Sa dit
n
Da pao
ns
lo
De ke
B
ut
an
sc
he k
Ba
B
nk
Al NP
Pa
lie
rib
d
Iri
sh as
B
Ba
ye ank
s
ris
ch
e
LB
HS
N
BC ord
ea
Dn Ho
ld
B
NO ing
s
R
Gr
ou
p
De
xi
a
Capital ratios of Swedish and international
banks
Per cent
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Lending in relation to deposits
Per cent
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
H
Chart 3:14
t
ea
di
en
nk
d
e
a
k
r
n
b
or
iC
N
ba
ed
n
s
l
U
Sw
de
n
a
r
s
k
as
AG
de
an
ng
ib
i
n
B
r
k
d
a
Pa
ol
an
ys
nt
a
b
a
H
P
l
z
S
S
rc
er
BN
co
RB
m
Ba
n
m
Ba
Co
B
SE
s
k
se
is
an
ng
i
u
B
d
S
e
ol
it
ch
H
d
s
e
t
C
Cr
eu
SB
D
H
U
BS
Sources: Bankscope and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks' deposits and
lending
SEK billion
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
mar-01
mar-02
mar-03
Lending
Chart 3:15
mar-04
mar-05
mar-06
Deposits and borrowing
mar-07
mar-08
mar-09
mar-10
Deposit deficit
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks' sources of
funding, March 2010
Per cent
3
3
5
Credit from the Riksbank
12
Government-guaranteed
borrowing via the Swedish
National Debt Office
Interbank, net
46
Covered bonds in SEK
9
Covered bonds in foreign
currency
Other debt securities
issued
Deposits
22
Chart 3:16
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Maturity of the securities of the major
Swedish banks, March 2010
SEK billion
700
600
590
590
1-3 months
3-12 months
500
430
400
300
200
100
0
<1 month
Chart 3:17
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The market funding of the major Swedish
banks per currency, December 2009
Per cent
Other currencies
6%
DKK
10%
SEK
35%
USD
21%
EUR
28%
Chart 3:18
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Chapter 4
Profit before loan losses and loan losses
(net) in the major Swedish banks
Totalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 March 2010
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10 dec-12
Chart 4:1
Profit before loan losses
Loan losses, net
M ain scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:1
M ain scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:2
Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the Riksbank
Distribution of loan losses in main scenario
per bank and year
SEK billion
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Handelsbanken
Nordea
2010
Chart 4:2
SEB
2011
Swedbank
2012
Source: The Riksbank
Distribution of loan losses per region in the
period 2010–2012 in the Riksbank’s main
scenario
SEK billion and per cent
5
8%
13
22%
10
17%
8
14%
19
31%
5
8%
Sweden
Chart 4:3
Nordic countries excl Sweden
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Other countries
Source: The Riksbank
The major Swedish bank with the lowest
Tier 1 capital ratio after another Swedish
major bank has defaulted on its payments
Per cent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
Chart 4:4
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: The Riksbank
Expected Default Frequency (EDF) for the
Swedish corporate sector in the stress test
and main scenario
Per cent
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
EDF, stress scenario
Chart 4:5
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
EDF, main scenario
Sources: Moody's KMV and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks' Tier 1 and core
Tier 1 capital ratios, today and in the stress
test
Per cent
16
Handelsbanken
Nordea
SEB
Swedbank
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Q1 10 11 12
Handelsbanken
10*
Chart 4:6
Q1 10 11 12
Nordea
10*
Q1 10 11
SEB
10*
12
Q1 10 11 12
Swedbank
10*
Source: The Riksbank

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