Report

A Proposed Method of Categorizing Extreme Rainfall Events The 100-Year Storm Redefined I can’t tell these people anymore that we had yet ANOTHER 100-year storm! History of Flooding in Brookfield Historic flooding events: March 1897 June 1917 June 1940 March 1960 July 1964 September 1972 April 1973 Recent Flooding in Brookfield Recent history of flooding in Brookfield August 6, 1986 – 6.8” in 24 hours June 20 - 21, 1997 – 6” in 26 hours August 6, 1998 – 11.35” in 8 hours June 7 - 8, 2008 – 5.8” in 24 hours June 19, 2009 – 4.8+” in 3 hours All 100-year storms or larger! Wisconsin: 14-Day Precipitation Valid at 6/16/2008 1200 UTC Radar image of precipitation in June 2008 Why Call Them 100-Year Storms? 2” rains are different depending where you are Need something that can be used consistently across the country Account for variability in these storms by region 100-Year Storms Recurrence interval Based on probability of the storm occurring How can there be two 100-year storms in a row? Let’s Call Them Something Else 1% probability storm Aren’t we clever? Public knows 1% = 1/100 They figure out that it’s the 100-year storm Now they feel like we tried to deceive them – hiding behind probabilities Probability of the 100-Year Storm Probability of 100-year event: p = 0.01 100-year event occurring three years in a row? p3 = (0.01)3 = 0.000001 or 1 in a million Not always intuitive 100-year event occurring once in 100 years? 1-(1-p)100 = 1-(0.99)100 = 1-0.366 = 63.4% Public thinks it would occur once every 100 years Binomial Probability Applied to Extreme Events More complex relationships 100-year event occurs 5 times in 25 years? n!*pY*(1-p)(n-Y) / (Y!)*(n-Y)! 25!*0.015*(0.99)20 / 5!*20! = 1 in 4.4 million Is this pretty rare? Consider what people are willing to gamble on Probability and Statistics Winning the Powerball Lottery: 1 in 195 million One Fatal Flaw People don’t understand statistics Public’s response to 100-year storm? “Oh good, we’re safe for another 99 years.” Two 100-year storms in a row? “This storm was different than last year’s storm, so they both can’t be called the 100year storm. Can they?” Public Confusion Mark Twain said, “The more you explain it, the more I don't understand it” Public more likely to respond this way Public Response Disbelief Disgust Cynicism Look for someone to blame Affects our credibility Less likely to take our advice in future Rating Other Natural Disasters Earthquakes Richter scale Measurement of Energy released Strength Duration of its seismic waves Rating Other Natural Disasters Tornadoes Fujita scale (enhanced since 2007) Measurement of Intensity Area affected Rating Other Natural Disasters Hurricanes Saffir- Simpson scale Measurement of Barometric pressure Wind speed Storm surge Rating Other Natural Disasters None of these natural disasters are rated using probabilities or recurrence intervals Something that implies severity of the storm, not rarity of the storm Use a scale instead to rate the event Easily understood, the higher the number, the worse the natural disaster Revise Terminology for Communication with Public Keep It Simple S_ _ _ _ _ Use recurrence intervals as basis Don’t call them 100year storms Use a scale like other natural disasters A New Rating System Proposed RI = 2(G-1) RI = Recurrence Interval of the rain event G = the Category of storm Example: G-factor of 7 in the formula is 2(7-1) = 26 equals the 64-year event Categorizing Storms Based on Recurrence Intervals: RI = 2(G-1) Category of Storm Recurrence Interval Rain Storm G-2 2 to 4 year G-3 4 to 8 year G-4 8 to 16 year G-5 16 to 32 year G-6 32 to 64 year G-7 64 to 128 year G-8 128 to 256 year G-9 > 256 year Placing the Recurrence Interval Storm into the New Rating System Recurrence Interval Rain Storm: RI = 2(G-1) G - Factor 2-year 2 Category of Storm G-2 5-year 3.32 G-3 10-year 4.32 G-4 25-year 5.64 G-5 50-year 6.64 G-6 100-year 7.64 G-7 Simple G-Factor Table Recurrence Interval Storm Duration 2-year 5-year 1 hour 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 hour 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 hour 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 hour 2 3 4 5 6 7 12 hour 2 3 4 5 6 7 24 hour 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 day 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 day 2 3 4 5 6 7 5 day 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 day 2 3 4 5 6 7 10-year 25-year 50-year 100-year Different Durations of 100-Year Storms Have Different Effects 2.8 inches of rain in one hour will wash out roads, culverts, and “flood” streets for a time 7.5 inches of rain in ten days causes rivers to overtop with widespread flooding Need to Account for Differences Develop adjustment factors for G New formula: GADJ = G x (DAF) x (IAF) G = the Category of storm Duration adjustment factor Intensity adjustment factor Intensity & Duration Adjusted Category Storms Recurrence Interval Storm Duration 2-year 5-year 1 hour 0 1 1 2 3 3 2 hour 1 1 2 2 3 4 3 hour 1 1 2 3 3 5 6 hour 1 1 2 3 4 6 12 hour 1 1 2 3 5 6 24 hour 1 2 2 4 5 7 2 day 1 2 3 5 6 7 3 day 1 2 3 5 6 7 5 day 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 day 2 4 5 7 8 9 10-year 25-year 50-year 100-year Brookfield Flooding Revisited August 6, 1986: 6.8” in 24 hours = G-8 June 20 - 21, 1997: 6” in 26 hours = G-7 August 6, 1998: 11.35” in 8 hours = G-10+ June 7 - 8, 2008: 5.8” in 24 hours = G-7 June 19, 2009: 4.8+” in 3 hours = G-6 No implication of rarity!!! Criticism and Scrutiny No continuous curve for each category storm Interpret between durations to pick the right category storm Or develop a look-up table or formula to interpolate (any grad students looking for a project?) Criticism and Scrutiny Does not address: antecedent moisture, snowmelt, soil types, % of impervious cover, etc. Not intended to! These relate to runoff, not the rain storm event Criticism and Scrutiny Just another name for the 100-year storm Precisely. That’s the point! Better way to communicate to public Severity, not rarity, is key to public’s understanding Advantages of a New System Preserves the existing data and science Does not require overhaul of hydrology or engineering Generally consistent with rating systems for other natural disasters Easy to understand Bigger the number, the bigger the storm Advantages of a New System Provides a more appropriate scaling factor The 50-year storm is not 50% as big as the 100-year storm as some might assume It is almost as big (Typically only 1 unit away) Uses different terminology than for floodplains Avoids confusion that 100-year storm always results in the 100-year flood Or that the 100-year flood can only occur when there’s a 100-year storm Advantages of a New System Does not imply that big storms are rare Minimizes criticism, skepticism and general disregard for hydrologic or engineering descriptions of the event Makes it clear to people that these are big storms that we should take seriously Incents people to protect themselves against larger event Does This Make Sense? What’s Next? Does this process have merit? Academia support? NOAA, USACE HEC support? Anyone with me? Your Turn for Feedback! For copies of this presentation or white paper: email me at: [email protected]