Searching for the Quantifiable, Scalable, Verifiable, and

Report
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Searching for the Quantifiable, Scalable,
Verifiable, and Understandable
Dewey Murdick, Ph.D.
Program Manager
Quantitative Methods in Defense of National Security, 25 May 2010
25 May 2010
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Intelligence Advanced
Research Projects Activity
(IARPA)
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Overview
IARPA’s mission is to invest in high-risk/high-payoff research programs that
have the potential to provide the U.S. with an overwhelming intelligence
advantage over our future adversaries

This is about taking real risk.
–
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CAVEAT: HIGH-RISK/HIGH-PAYOFF IS NOT A FREE PASS FOR STUPIDITY.
–
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This is NOT about “quick wins”, “low-hanging fruit”, “sure things”, etc.
Competent failure is acceptable; incompetence is not.
“Best and brightest”.
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World-class PMs.
o
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IARPA will not start a program without a good idea and an exceptional person to
lead its execution.
Full and open competition to the greatest possible extent.
Cross-community focus.
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Address cross-community challenges
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Leverage agency expertise (both operational and R&D)
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Work transition strategies and plans
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The “P” in IARPA is very important
 Technical and programmatic excellence are required
 Each Program will have a clearly defined and measurable end-goal,
typically 3-5 years out.
– Intermediate milestones to measure progress are also required
– Every Program has a beginning and an end
– A new program may be started that builds upon what has been
accomplished in a previous program, but that new program must
compete against all other new programs
 This approach, coupled with rotational PM positions, ensures that…
– IARPA does not “institutionalize” programs
– Fresh ideas and perspectives are always coming in
– Status quo is always questioned
– Only the best ideas are pursued, and only the best performers are
funded.
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The “Heilmeier Questions”
1. What are you trying to do?
2. How does this get done at present? Who does it? What are the
limitations of the present approaches?
– Are you aware of the state-of-the-art and have you thoroughly thought
through all the options?
3. What is new about your approach? Why do you think you can be
successful at this time?
– Given that you’ve provided clear answers to 1 & 2, have you created a
compelling option?
– What does first-order analysis of your approach reveal?
4. If you succeed, what difference will it make?
– Why should we care?
5. How long will it take? How much will it cost? What are your mid-term
and final exams?
– What is your program plan? How will you measure progress? What are your
milestones/metrics? What is your transition strategy?
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The Three Strategic Thrusts (Offices)
 Smart Collection: dramatically improve the value of collected data
– Innovative modeling and analysis approaches to identify where to
look and what to collect.
– Novel approaches to access.
– Innovative methods to ensure the veracity of data collected from a
variety of sources.
 Incisive Analysis: maximizing insight from the information we collect,
in a timely fashion
– Advanced tools and techniques that will enable effective use of
large volumes of multiple and disparate sources of information.
– Innovative approaches (e.g., using virtual worlds, shared
workspaces) that dramatically enhance insight and productivity.
– Methods that incorporate socio-cultural and linguistic factors into
the analytic process.
– Estimation and communication of uncertainty and risk.
 Safe and Secure Operations: countering new capabilities of our
adversaries that could threaten our ability to operate effectively in a
networked world
– Cybersecurity
o
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Focus on future vulnerabilities
Approaches to advancing the "science" of cybersecurity, to include
the development of fundamental laws and metrics
– Quantum information science & technology
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Program Manager Interest Areas by Office
safe and secure operations
incisive analysis
smart collection
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20 May
April2010
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Concluding Thoughts on IARPA
 Technical Excellence & Technical Truth
– Scientific Method
– Peer/independent review
– Full and open competition
 We are looking for outstanding PMs.
 How to find out more about IARPA:
www.iarpa.gov
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
Conference on Technical Information Discovery, Extraction & Organization
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Mark Heiligman, IARPA PM, Mile-wide, Mile-deep (M2) Exploration
Held October 28-29, 2008, consisted of talks, breakout sessions, and open discussion
Attended by 30+ researchers, business intelligence, and government participants

Facilitated an open and active discussion on current methods, challenges,
and opportunities in:
– Information Retrieval
This talk is a personal summary of
– Text Processing
the materials presented and
– Knowledge Discovery
– Information Extraction
discussed at the conference.
– Social Network Analysis
– Scientometrics
– Information Visualization and
– Closely related research domains

Goal: Drive technical innovation and explore novel applications in the area
of systematically mining the global technical literature for useful and nonobvious information and insights
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M2 Information Content
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Formal Presentations
– Mile-wide, Mile-deep, Mark Heiligman, IARPA
– Information Retrieval, Scientometrics/Text Mining,and Literature-related
Discovery and Innovation, Ron Kostoff, MITRE
– From Knowledge Mapping to Innovation Evolution, Hsinchun Chen, University of
Arizona
– Machine Learning for Extraction, Integration and Mining of Research Literature,
Andrew McCallum, University of Massachusetts Amherst
– Information Retrieval:The Path Ahead, Jamie Callan, Carnegie Mellon University
– Sentiment Analysis from User Forums, Ronen Feldman, Hebrew University
– The Accuracy of a Map of Science: Measurement & Implications, Richard
Klavans, SciTech Strategies, Inc
– Document Classification Using Nonnegative Matrix Factorization, Michael W.
Berry, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Breakout Sessions & Open Discussion – richest idea content, and biggest
contribution to what follows
MITRE Summary:
– A Two-step Analytic-workshop Process For Identifying Promising Research
Opportunities, by Ronald Kostoff et al.
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Problems
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Too Much Data / Diversity
– Scale
– Textual / Multimedia
– Multilingual
– Multiple Sources
Too Complex
– Motivation (Create / Disseminate)
– Topics / Domains (# / Connectedness)
– Shared Intentionally or Not
Too Fast – Streaming
Example for Technical Topics:
Scientific Literature, Patents, Conference Proceedings, Talks, Technical Blogs,
S&T News, Social Media, Experimental Data, Computational Models / Code,
Forecasts, Corporate Filings, Government Funding, Policy, Public Opinion, etc.
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Weak Signals in Context
 Find weak signals
 Use weak signals within context for
– Finding connections
– Anomaly detection/rare events
– Cultural meaning / implications
 Manage uncertainty
 Development new standards for
“ground truth”
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Connecting Weak Signals
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Automated Connection Making / Knowledge Discovery
 Iterative information retrieval (IR), extraction (IE), and linkages
identification
 Leveraging previous relevancy judgments and feedback
 Probabilistic linking of subjective qualities within text
Goal: find high-value, low-signature information in context
Material processing
method X may be
interesting for property Y
!
Intriguing Rumors,
Uncertain Source
Analyst
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Analyst w/
Quantitative System
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Analyst
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Enhancing Contextual Awareness
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Automatically
– Leverage element characteristics in connection building process
– Focused information augmentation from secondary sources
– Characterize and apply to analogous situations
o Network Behaviors and Features
o Assessments of subjectivity (e.g., theme, sentiment)
Goal: rapidly inform non-experts with context about a given area/issue
Context
Analyst
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Identifying Outliers, Rare Events
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Automatically
– Measuring and analyzing low-frequency indicators in group trends
– Systematically identifying anomalies from records of interest and early-stage
emerging technologies
– Identifying rare events based on non-technical phrase association patterns
– Extracting technical phrases of interest by targeting non-technical phrases
such as sentiment, analysis, stylistics, etc.
– Intelligent clustering techniques
Goal: Identify significant rare events
Is Jim doing
something illegal?
Bank statements
Analyst
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Collaboration
(Two Different Kinds)
 Common playground facilitating:
– Large-scale data sharing
– Data discovery annotation
– Error corrections
– Multi-source integration
– Recall of what has been done in the past
 Measure collaboration
– Recognize cultural differences
– Discover key players
– Process changes over time
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Multilingual Methods
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Need algorithms that can process, filter, and
analyze multilingual data
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Leverage domain-specific machine
translation
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Compare and contrast translated and
multilingual data for improvements in
queries, trends, etc.
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Language translation is high cost
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Translation is not enough to understand
meaning in non-English text
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Cultural information helps to understand
social landscape, motivation, and production
of scientists in S&T
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No Black Boxes
 No Algorithm black boxes
– Shared environment for algorithm development
– Success verifiable through indicator metrics
– Output must be humanly comprehensible
 Human comprehension metrics:
o Number of potential associations
o Number of dimensions simultaneously analyzed
o Steps to finding information
o Amount of time to digest information
o Amount of information at time
o Efficiency of user-driven tuning of level-of-detail
 Algorithmic output exportable to interactive tools
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User-Friendly Displays for Data Analysis
 Interactive and multifaceted views of
scientific landscape
– Geo-location
– Entity Networks
– Topical Networks
 Environments that provide both
contextual awareness and
visualizations
– Contextual information
(Wikipedia style) provided when
user encounters unfamiliar term
or concept
 Interactive interfaces to pull out
information
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Metric Validation Processes
 User studies and human labeling to verify
data in information extraction(IE) and NLP
is costly
 Use hybrid methods (e.g., boosting)
 Leverage automatically processed
information from a external source to
validate output
 Automating identification of trusted sources
to help validation process
 Validate results with historical studies,
knowledge of current state, and forecasts
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Serious Need for
Novel Thinking
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Things to Remember
 Track Uncertainty
– Indicator metrics
– Weak signals
 No black boxes
– Human comprehensible output
 Provide clear view of evaluation metrics
– Gold standards
– Ground truth
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Take Action
 Respond to an open BAA
 Chat with a Program Manager (PM)
 Come up with new ideas for programs,
become a PM
 Provide information to open RFIs
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