Inequality, Peace and Security: implications for post

Report
Inequality, Peace and Security:
implications for post-2015
What do we mean by peace?
1. Reductions in violence / Negative peace
2. Address drivers / Positive peace
3. Reduce violent insecurity, interpersonal
= A holistic vision of peace
Saferworld review of evidence: Key issues
1. Reducing violence & making the public feel secure
2. Ending impunity & ensuring access to justice
3. The ability of states to manage revenues & perform core
functions effectively & accountably
4. Transparency, accountability & controls on corruption
5. Action on external stresses that drive conflict
6. Shared economic growth & opportunities for decent livelihoods
7. Voice & participation in decision-making
8. Reconciliation & tolerance between different social groups
9. Fair access to social services & resources
10. Ensuring equality between social groups
Inequality links to violent conflict and
insecurity: Review of evidence
• Broadly two types of inequality:
• Vertical – between individuals
• Horizontal –between social groups (ethnic,
religious, regional, age, etc.).
Vertical inequality
•
Strong consensus that it is linked to levels of
violent crime
• E.g. statistical links between income inequality and
homicide, violent robbery – within and between
countries
•
•
•
Latin America, US
IEP, World Bank, Wilkinson and Pickett
No strong evidence of link to conflict
•
IEP, Fearon and Laitin, Collier
BUT … Horizontal inequalities (HI)
Strong evidence base that different types of HI
– and usually combinations of HI – are
correlated with conflict risk
Horizontal Inequality (HI)
•
Not new – e.g. Ted Gurr: identity + unmet
expectations + relative deprivation
• Obvious - conflicts today, World Bank 2011, sense of
injustice
• But useful:
• Conceptual framework
• Evidence base
• Different perspective (e.g. rich on poor violence).
Different types of HI (Frances Stewart)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Economic: inequalities in ownership of assets (financial, natural
resource-based, human and social) and of incomes and
employment opportunities
Social: include access to a range of services – e.g. education,
health and housing – and inequalities in social outcomes.
Political: consist in inequalities in the group distribution of political
opportunities and power (e.g. control over executive,
representation in parliament, control of army) and inequalities in
people’s capabilities to participate politically and voice their
needs.
Cultural: refer to differences in recognition and (de facto)
hierarchical status of different groups’ cultural norms, customs
and practices.
Economic HI
Evidence:
• F Stewart – 9 cases – “when ethnic identities
coincide with economic [HI], social instability of one
sort or another is likely”
• G Brown – 31 cases – when regional GDP per
capita varies, increased likelihood of conflict
• Cases:
• Sudan / South Sudan – oil assets, development
projects, etc.
Social HI
Evidence:
• Østby: if inequality in terms of years of education
increases dramatically, “the probability of conflict
more than doubles, to 3.7%,” holding all other
variables constant
• Cases:
• Sri Lanka and education: Tamils and Sinhalese
• Kosovo and electricity
Political HI
Evidence:
•
•
Cederman – 124 ethnic conflicts – “ [politically] excluded groups
across all income levels are three times more likely to initiate conflict
against the state as compared with included groups that enjoy
representation at the center”
IEP – Global Peace Index - “some nations have well-functioning
governments without the presence of effective democratic institutions.
However, in spite of these outliers … the top ten most peaceful
nations in the GPI are all well-functioning democracies while most of
the bottom ten nations are authoritarian regimes or failed states”
Cases:
•
•
Violent protest and youth in Yemen
Ivory Coast and citizenship
Cultural HI
Evidence:
•
•
•
•
IEP – GPI - finds that levels of peace are correlated with
ISS’s measures of both Intergroup Cohesion and
Interpersonal Trust.
Hudson, Ballif-Spanvill, Caprioli & Emmett - levels of
gender inequality, measured by inequities in family law
(including marriage, divorce, custody and inheritance) are
strongly correlated with conflict and instability.
DFID – links between gender violence and gender
inequality
Cases:
•
Religious groups in Northern Ireland
Some things to keep in mind:
1. Plenty of multi-ethnic or multi-identity countries that are
peaceful: what matters is inequality between them
2. HI interrelated with other HI – holistic response
3. How do we define social groups? Built around conflict?
4. Conflict impacts on HI (and other inequalities)
5. Other factors drive conflict beyond inequalities…
Implications for peace in post-2015
1. We should be concerned about vertical inequalities,
but if we want to prevent conflict through a we must
also focus on HI
2. Leaving no-one and no-group behind
3. Strong emphasis on HI in narrative
Implications Cont..
4. One response should be through goal and targets on
inequality (goal 10 and target 10.2)
5. But also mainstreamed across goals and targets”
•
•
Economic HI: think not only about growth, but
livelihoods, jobs, assets, natural resources
Social HI: think about equal and fair access to
accountable social services – health, education,
security, justice
Implications Cont..
•
•
Political HI: think about participation, accountability,
rights and accountable institutions that can respond
and perform
Cultural HI: think about citizenship, social cohesion,
inter-community relations, gender
6. Monitor HI through indicators that are disaggregated
by social group as far as possible

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