Lecture Outlines Chapter 8 Environment: The Science behind the Stories 4th Edition Withgott/Brennan © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. This lecture will help you understand: • Human population growth • Different viewpoints on this growth • Population, affluence, and technology’s effects • Demography • Demographic transition • Factors affecting population growth • The HIV/AIDS epidemic • Population and sustainable development © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Case study: China’s one-child policy • In 1970, China’s 790 million people faced starvation • The government instituted a one-child policy - The growth rate plummeted - The policy is now less strict • The successful program has unintended consequences: - Killing of female infants - Black-market trade in teenage girls © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Our world at seven billion • Populations continue to rise in most countries - Particularly in poverty-stricken developing nations • Although the rate of growth is slowing, we are still increasing in numbers It would take 30 years, counting once each second, to count to a billion! It would take 210 years to count to 7 billion! © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. The human population is growing rapidly • Our population grows by over 80 million each year • It took until 1800 to reach 1 billion • In 1930 (130 years later) we reached 2 billion • We added the most recent billion in 12 years Due to exponential growth, even if the growth rate remains steady, population will continue to grow © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Rates of growth vary from region to region • At today’s 1.2% global growth rate, the population will double in 58 years (70/1.2 = 58) • If China’s rate had continued at 2.8%, it would have had 2 billion people in 2004 © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Is population growth a problem? • Technology, sanitation, medication, and increased food increase population - Death rates drop, but not birth rates • Population growth was seen as good - Support for elderly, a larger labor pool • Thomas Malthus’ An Essay on the Principles of Population (1798) - Humans will outstrip food supplies - War, disease, starvation reduce populations © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Paul Ehrlich’s Population Bomb (1968) • Neo-Malthusians: population growth will increase faster than food production • Population growth causes famine and conflict - Civilization would end by the end of the 20th century • Intensified food production fed more people © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Population growth will affect quality of life • Population growth has caused famine, disease, conflict • Prosperity, education, gender equality reduce birth rates • Cornucopians (e.g., economists) say new resources will replace depleted ones - But some resources (e.g., species) are irreplaceable • Quality of life will suffer with unchecked growth - Less space, food, wealth per person © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Some governments fear falling populations • Policymakers believe population growth increases economic, political, and military strength • But growth is correlated with poverty, not wealth - Strong, rich nations have low growth rates - Weak, poor nations have high growth rates • Some nations offer incentives for more children - Elderly need social services • 49% of non-European nations feel their birth rates are too high © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Population growth affects the environment • The IPAT model: I = P × A × T × S • Total impact (I) on the environment results from: - Population (P) = individuals need space and resources - Affluence (A) = greater per capita resource use - Technology (T) = increased exploitation of resources - Sensitivity (S) = how sensitive an area is to human pressure • Further model refinements include the effects of education, laws, and ethics on the formula © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Population growth with limited resources • Impact equates to pollution or resource consumption - Humans use 25% of Earth’s net primary production • Technology has increased efficiency and reduced our strain on resources - Resulting in further population growth - For example: increased agricultural production • Modern China’s increasing affluence is causing: - Increased resource consumption - Farmland erosion, depleted aquifers, urban pollution • China shows us what the rest of the world can become © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Population growth: causes and consequences © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Human population growth and regulation © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Human population growth and regulation © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Demography • Demography: the application of population ecology to the study of change in human populations - All population principles apply to humans - Environmental factors limit population growth • Humans raise the environment’s carrying capacity through technology • How many humans can the world sustain? - 1–33 billion: prosperity to abject poverty - Population growth can’t continue forever © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Demography • Demographers study: - Population size - Density and distribution - Age structure - Sex ratio - Birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Population size and density • The UN predicts 9 billion by 2050 • Increased density impacts the environment - But relieves pressure in less-populated areas • Highest density: temperate, subtropical, tropical biomes - Cities • Lowest density: away from water © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Population distribution • Humans are unevenly distributed around the globe • Unpopulated areas tend to be environmentally sensitive (high S value in the IPAT equation) - Vulnerable to humans (e.g., deserts, arid grasslands) © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Age structure affects population size • Age structure diagrams (population pyramids) show age structure • Wide base = many young: - High reproduction - Rapid population growth • Even age distribution: - Remains stable - Births = deaths © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Age structures: Canada vs. Madagascar Canada’s age structure is balanced Madagascar’s age structure is heavily weighted toward the young © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Changing age structures pose challenges • China’s age structure is changing - In 1970, the median age was 20 - By 2050, it will be 45 • By 2050, over 300 million will be over 65 - Fewer people will be working to support social programs © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Many populations are aging • Many populations are getting older - They will need care and financial assistance - Taxes will increase for Social Security and Medicare • But fewer dependent children means lower crime rates • The elderly can remain productive © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Sex ratios • Human sex ratios at birth slightly favor males - For every 100 females born, 106 males are born • Chinese females are selectively aborted - 120 boys were reported for 100 girls - Cultural gender preferences - The government’s one-child policy • The undesirable social consequences? - Many single Chinese men - Teenage girls are kidnapped and sold as brides © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Factors in population change • Whether a population grows, shrinks, or remains stable depends on rates of birth, death, and migration - Birth and immigration add individuals - Death and emigration remove individuals • Technological advances caused decreased deaths - The increased gap between birth and death rates resulted in population expansion • Natural rate of population change = due to birth and death rates alone © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Immigration and emigration • War, civil strife, and environmental degradation cause people to flee their homes - Each year, 25 million refugees escape poor environmental conditions • This movement causes environmental problems - No incentives to conserve resources © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Falling growth rates do not mean fewer people Slower rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population—population size continues to increase © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Factors affecting total fertility rate • Total fertility rate (TFR) = the average number of children born to each female • Replacement fertility = the TFR that keeps the size of a population stable (about 2.1) • Causes of decreasing TFR: - Medical care reduces infant mortality - Urbanization increases childcare costs - Children go to school instead of working - Social Security supports the elderly - Educated women enter the labor force © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Life expectancy is increasing • In countries with good sanitation, health care, and food, people live longer • Life expectancy = average number of years that an individual is likely to continue to live - Increases with reduced rates of infant mortality • Urbanization, industrialization, and personal wealth reduce infant mortality rates • Demographic transition = a model of economic and cultural change - Explains the declining death and birth rates in industrializing nations © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. The demographic transition • A stable pre-industrial state of high birth and death rates changes to a stable post-industrial state of low birth and death rates • As mortality decreases, there is less need for large families - Parents invest in quality of life • Death rates fall before birth rates - Resulting in population growth © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Human population growth and regulation © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. The demographic transition’s four stages Population growth is seen as a temporary phenomenon © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Is the demographic transition universal? • It has occurred in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Japan, and other nations over the past 200–300 years • But it may or may not apply to developing nations • The transition could fail in cultures that: - Place greater value on childbirth or - Grant women fewer freedoms For people to attain the material standard of living of North Americans, we would need the natural resources of four and a half more Earths © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Birth control: key to controlling growth • The greatest single factor slowing population growth • Birth control = controlling the number of children born - Reducing the frequency of pregnancy • Contraception = deliberate prevention of pregnancy through a variety of methods • Family planning = affects the number and spacing of children - Clinics offer advice, information, and contraceptives - Hindered by religious and cultural influences - Rates range from 10% (Africa) to 90% (China) © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Contraceptive methods for birth control © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Empowering women reduces growth rates • Fertility rates drop when women gain access to contraceptives, family planning programs, and educational opportunities • Women with little power have unintended pregnancies - Two-thirds of the world’s illiterate are women Educating women reduces fertility rates, delays childbirth, and gives them a voice in reproductive decisions © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Human population growth and regulation © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Human population growth and regulation © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. We are a long way from gender equity • Over 60% of the world’s poor are women • Violence against women remains shockingly common - Many men resist women’s decision making • The gap is obvious at high levels of government - We are a long way from achieving gender equality The U.S. lags behind the world in proportion of women representatives © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Policies and family planning work • Many countries provide incentives, education, contraception, and reproductive health care • Funding and policies that encourage family planning lower population growth rates in all nations • Thailand’s educational-based approach to family planning reduced its growth rate from 2.3% to 0.6% - Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Cuba, and other developing countries have active programs • 1994’s UN population conference in Cairo, Egypt called for universal access to reproductive health care © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Family planning reduces fertility rates Blue = with family planning Red = without family planning © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Poverty and population growth are correlated • Poorer societies have higher population growth rates - Consistent with the demographic transition theory - They have higher fertility and growth rates, with lower contraceptive use 99% of the next billion people added will be born in poor, less developed regions that are least able to support them © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Correlation of poverty and population • Poverty exacerbates population growth - Population growth exacerbates poverty • In 1960, 70% of all people lived in developing nations - As of 2010, 82% live in these nations - 99% of the next billion will be born in these nations © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Poverty causes environmental degradation • Population growth in poor nations increases environmental degradation - Farming degrades soil in arid areas (Africa, China) - Poor people cut forests, deplete biodiversity, and hunt endangered species (e.g., great apes) Africa’s Sahel and western China are turning to desert © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Wealth also impacts the environment • The population problem is not only in poor countries • Affluent societies have enormous resource consumption and waste production - People use resources from other areas, as well as from their own - Ecological footprints are huge • We are living beyond our means One American has as much environmental impact as 4.5 Chinese or 10 Indians or 19 Afghans © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. The Earth can’t support our consumption • Biocapacity = the amount of biologically productive land and sea available to us - Ecological deficit = ecological footprint > biocapacity - Ecological reserve = ecological footprint < biocapacity • We are running a global ecological deficit Humanity’s global ecological footprint surpassed Earth’s capacity in 1987 © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. The wealth gap and population growth cause conflict • The contrast between rich and poor societies causes social and environmental stress - The richest 20% use 86% of the world’s resources - Increasing tensions between “haves” and “have-nots” © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. HIV/AIDS impacts African populations • The AIDS epidemic is having the greatest impact since the Black Death in the 14th century • Of 33 million infected, two-thirds live in subSaharan Africa; 3,800 die/day • Low rates of contraceptive use spread the disease HIV is established and spreading quickly around the world © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. AIDS has severe effects • AIDS undermines the ability of poor nations to develop - Millions of orphans are created - Fewer teachers and workers to fill jobs - Families and communities break down - Income and food production decline - Debt and medical costs skyrocket © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Demographic fatigue • Demographic fatigue = governments face overwhelming challenges related to population growth - With the added of stress of HIV/AIDS, governments are stretched beyond their capabilities - Problems grow worse and citizens lose faith • Good news: HIV transmission has slowed recently Decreased AIDS deaths are due to policy, collaboration, research, NGOs, and grassroots efforts © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Sustainable development and population • Millennium Development Goals = UN’s 2000 declaration - Specific targets can be met with concrete strategies - Global partnerships with corporations, governments, etc. • Population control is not a goal - But to achieve the goals, population growth and resource consumption must be addressed © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Millennium Development Goals © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Conclusion • The human population is larger than at any other time • Rates are decreasing but populations are still rising • Most developed nations have passed through the demographic transition • Expanding women’s rights slows population growth • How will the population stop rising? - The demographic transition, governmental intervention, or disease and social conflict? • Sustainability requires a stabilized population to avoid destroying natural systems © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Review What has accounted for most of the world’s population growth in recent years? a) Women are having more babies. b) Technology, medicine, and food have decreased death rates. c) Fewer women are using contraceptives. d) Nothing, the population has dropped in recent years. © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Review According to the I = P x A x T x S formula, what would happen to the impact if China’s 1 billion people had a lifestyle like Americans? a) Their population would automatically drop. b) Their population would automatically increase. c) Their affluence and technology would increase. d) Their impact on the environment would decrease. © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Review Where is the highest density of people found? a) In the colder climates (e.g., Siberia) b) In temperate or tropical biomes c) In rural areas d) In drier areas © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Review An age structure diagram shaped like a pyramid, with a wide base shows an ________ population. a) Increasing b) Decreasing c) Stable d) Older © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Review Describe the relationship between population growth rates and population size. a) Falling growth rates automatically mean a smaller population. b) Falling growth rates automatically mean a larger population. c) Falling growth rates means we no longer have a population problem. d) Falling growth rates does not mean a smaller population, but that rates of increase are slowing. © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Weighing the Issues Should the United States fund international familyplanning efforts? a) Yes, absolutely b) Yes, but only in nations that follow U.S.-approved programs c) Only if it can influence the nations’ policies d) Never under any circumstances, it’s not our job © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Weighing the Issues Would you rather live in a country with a larger population or smaller population? a) Small population, so there will be more resources for me b) Small population, so there will be more resources for others, including wildlife c) Large population, so I can find a date d) Large population, because people are our biggest resource © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data What happens during the “transitional” stage of the demographic transition? a) High birth and death rates rise - population increases b) High birth and death rates - population is stable c) High birth rates with low death rates - population increases d) Low birth and death rates cause - population decreases © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data According to this age pyramid, Madagascar’s future population will be: a) Balanced b) Larger c) Much larger d) Smaller e) Much smaller © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data According to these graphs, which countries had access to family planning? a) Iraq and Pakistan b) Malawi and Haiti c) Malawi and Kenya d) Kenya and Bangladesh © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.