Measuring Results Development goals and the drive to improve global statistics Shaida Badiee, Development Data Group.

Report
Measuring Results
Development goals and the drive to
improve global statistics
Shaida Badiee, Development Data Group
The need for good statistics
• Development is about people. But to measure
development and see its effect on people, we need good
statistics.
James D. Wolfensohn
• … if we do not improve our statistical capacity in
developing countries, this great opportunity will be lost.
Clare Short,1999
• If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.
Trevor Manuel, 2001
Results and National Statistics
• Good quality national statistics are needed to
“manage for results”
• Developing countries ― manage their poverty
reduction strategies and report progress to their
citizens
• Development partners ― increase the
effectiveness of their aid programs
• Civil society ― increase accountability of public
agencies
• The private sector ‒ plan investments and make
markets work
How well can we measure results?
Statistical capacity indicator: Practice
Statistical capacity indicator: Collection
Statistical capacity indicator: Availability
Capacity scores and GNI per capita
Sustainable
statistical capacity is
possible in low
income countries
Statistical capacity lowest in IDA countries
…there have been improvements
…in some regions more than others
Change 1999 to 2004
Statistics in PRSPs and CASs
PRS monitoring needs national statistics
Outcome indicators are used extensively, including
those required for monitoring MDGs and IDA 14
BUT
a review of Joint Staff Assessments reveals that the
capacity to produce and use them is limited
AND
remedial action is insufficient
- even though many CASs identify the issue only
some (e.g. results-based CASs) recommend action
Actions to improve National Statistics
1. Monitor statistical capacity to better inform
development processes
•
Standard report on country statistical capacity, work
with partners to share information about relevant
capacity building initiatives
Monitoring statistical capacity
Burkina Faso
Statistical capacity at a glance
Basic country information
Population
12.1 million
GNI per capita
Statistical
practice
100
80
$300 US
60
40
Statistical capacity score (on a scale of 0-100)
Burkina Faso
IDA-IBRD average
Overall
63
60
Statistical practice
Data collection
40
70
55
54
Indicator availability
80
72
20
0
Indicator
availability
Data collection
Burkina Faso
Legal / strategic
framework
Statistical practice
Data collection
World Bank projects
Statistical law
IDA-IBRD average
Statistical system information
Law 040/96/ADP of November 8, 1996
NSDS / Statistical master plan
Schéma Directeur de la Statistique du Burkina Faso 2004-2009
NSDS status
Completed / Adopted
National accounts methodology
SNA68
BOP (manual in use)
SDDS/GDDS (subscriber)
BPM4
GDDS
Population census (latest year)
1996
Vital registration system (coverage)
Not complete
Agricultural census (latest year)
1993
Household surveys (recent years)
Priority Survey (2003, 1998, 1994); DHS (2003, 1998, 1992)….
STATCAP
Development of the National Statistical System (IBRD/IDA, 2004)
High statistical content
Statistical Master Plan (TFSCB, 2003)
Actions to improve National Statistics
1. Monitor statistical capacity to better inform
development processes
•
Standard report on country statistical capacity, work
with partners to share information about relevant
capacity building initiatives
2. Implement Marrakech Action Plan for
Statistics
•
MAPS target: national statistical strategies in all
IDA countries by 2006
Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics
• National level
• Promote strategic planning of statistical systems
• Prepare for the 2010 census round
• Increase financing for statistical capacity building
• International level
• Set up an international household survey network
• Undertake urgent improvements needed for MDG
monitoring by 2005
• Increase coordination for international statistical
system
Progress on MAPS
• Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building and
PARIS21
• supporting development of national statistical
strategies
• STATCAP lending program
• approved in March 2004
• 2010 census round
• UNSD leading
• International Household Survey Network
• launched in September 2004
Actions to improve National Statistics
1. Monitor statistical capacity to better inform
development processes
•
Standard report on country statistical capacity, work
with partners to share information about relevant
capacity building initiatives
2. Implement Marrakech Action Plan for
Statistics
•
MAPS target: national statistical strategies in all
IDA countries by 2006
3. Accelerate production of key indicators
• Pilot program to demonstrate improved survey data
collection and reporting practices
Accelerating progress
Country
Angola
Benin
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Central African Rep.
Chad
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Congo, Rep.
Côte d’Ivoire
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gambia, The
Ghana
Statistical
Population capacity
score (%)
13.5
6.7
12.1
7.2
16.1
3.9
8.6
53.2
3.8
16.8
4.4
68.6
1.4
20.4
35
55
63
42
48
27
53
38
37
75
37
65
52
52
% of MDG
indicators
with an
estimate in
2000-2002
69
73
66
80
80
63
70
67
68
63
76
90
70
69
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
The
capacity to
M
produce
D statistics
C, Q
2004
2005
Q
M
(D), M
Q, D
M
M
M
M
Q
M
I
D
D
Q
M
D
I
M
C
M
MAnd
M
M
the plannedQ
program ofD national & M
D
D
international
surveys
M
(D), M
C
C
D
Q
Are not sufficient to meet
the demand for better indicators
What can be achieved over the next 3 years
1. Improved global monitoring and reporting
• Of statistical capacity and support for statistical
capacity building
2. Good quality NSDS for all IDA countries
• Where feasible, with resources for implementation
• Broader inclusion of statistics in national plans
3. Pilot program in a number of countries
• Accelerated production of key indicators
4. Other actions of MAPs:
• Support for countries preparing 2010 census
• Securing additional resources for MAPs

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