prop 8 - Equality California

Report
Proposition 8
Post-Election California Voter Survey
Prepared by David Binder Research
Conducted November 6th - 16th, 2008
Research
Methodology
Methodology
Respondents
Margin of
Error
Dates
800 voters living in California who voted in the November
2008 election, plus an additional oversample of 266 Asian,
Latino, and African American voters.
Margin of error: 3.0%
Poll was conducted November 6th to 16th, 2008.
3
Summary
Findings
4
Summary Findings: Overall
Overall
Results
•
Proposition 8 was passed on November 4, 2008 by a margin of 52% to
48% by a margin of about 600,000 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast.
•
Two areas of the state stood out: The Central Valley counties
overwhelmingly supported the measure by 71%-29%, while the more
populous Bay Area was strongly opposed (39%-61%).
However, the Southern California counties which comprise 55% of the
total vote supported Prop 8 by 54% to 46%. In Los Angeles County,
69% voted for Barack Obama for President, but slightly less than 50%
voted no on Proposition 8 – a gap of 19 percentage points (compared
to a 13 point differential statewide).
5
Summary Findings: Demographics
Results •
by
Subgroup
Political ideology was the factor that corresponded most highly to the
Proposition 8 vote, with 22% of liberals voting yes on 8, compared to
51% of moderates and 82% of conservatives.
•
Election day exit polls that showed 70% of African American voters
supporting Proposition 8 appear incorrect. Our survey shows 58% of
Blacks voting for 8. Precincts in Southern California’s most
concentrated areas of African American voters – Carson and Compton
– show 65% support for Prop 8. Predominately African American
precincts in other areas of LA County and in San Francisco showed
support in the low-to-mid 50 percent range.
•
The factor next most important in determining vote on Prop 8, after
ideology, was religion, with voters who worship regularly being
strongly more likely to support Prop 8, by a 70% to 30%, while those
who worship less often voted 38% to 62% against Prop 8.
Blacks and Latinos who worship less than once a week opposed Prop
8.
6
Summary Findings: Reasons for Vote and Influencers
Reasons
for
Vote
•
Supporters of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that marriage is
between a man and a woman.
•
Secondarily, Prop 8 supporters disclosed religious reasons as motive
for their support.
•
Opponents of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that same sex
marriage was an issue of civil rights and equal rights, as well as their
view that everyone should have the freedom to marry the person of
their choosing.
Influ- •
encers
Most voters stated they were most influenced by discussions with
friends, family and coworkers. This pool of voters opposed
Proposition 8.
•
About one-quarter said they had a strong personal opinion on the issue
that was not swayed by other communications. This pool voted yes.
•
About 8% said they were swayed by the church. This pool voted yes by
94% to 6%.
7
Summary Findings: Communications
TV ads
•
Among the yes on 8 ads, the message that stood out was that Prop 8
will cause the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.
•
Among the no on 8 ads, most saw the ad featuring Senator Dianne
Feinstein.
•
The ads with Feinstein and Sam and Julia Thoron were statistically
more likely to cause a no vote than were other ads. The History ad
narrated by Samuel L. Jackson was also convincing.
•
Vast majority of voters said mail and telephone calls were not
influential.
Other
Communication •
sources
•
Only 5% visited official campaign websites, but those who visited the
no on 8 website rated it more influential than visitors to the yes site.
About 10% said they received information from a church, and 49% felt
this information was convincing – a much higher proportion than other
sources, such as labor unions, newspaper editorials and television ads.
8
Summary Findings: Messaging
Messa- •
ging
Only about 17% of yes on 8 voters could name something tangible that
could cause them to change their mind and support same sex
marriage, including:
•
•
•
•
Call marriage by another name
Ensure that same sex marriage will not be taught in schools
Ensure that churches will not be forced to perform same sex
marriages
Approval, or lack of formal opposition, from churches or religious
leaders
9
Election Results
California Election Results
November 4, 2008
President
Prop 8
Obama
8,274,473
61.1%
No
6,401,482
47.7%
McCain
5,011,781
37.0%
Yes
7,001,084
52.3%
Gap between Obama vote and No on 8
vote was 1.8 million, or 14%
Prop 8 vs Obama
Prop 8 Map – 52% Yes vs 48% No
Presidential Vote -- 61% Obama vs 37% McCain
12
LA County had 19% difference between vote for Obama and vote against
Prop 8
Region
% Obama
% No on 8
% Obama – Prop 8
LA County
69
50
19
San Diego County
54
46
8
Other Southern California
51
40
11
Central Valley
46
29
17
Sacramento / Tahoe Region
55
43
12
Bay Area
74
61
13
Central Coast
64
56
8
Inland / Mountains / Other
46
40
6
Total
61
48
13
Other Southern California: Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, Ventura
Central Valley: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare
Sacramento / Tahoe: Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Yolo
Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma
Central Coast: Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz
Inland / Mountains / Other: Alpine, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa,
Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter,
13 Tehama, Trinity,. Tuolumne, Yuba
Prop 8 generated far more interest than any other state proposition
Which one of the 12 state propositions on the November 4 th ballot were you most
interested in?
Prop 1A
5
Prop 2
5
2
Prop 3
Prop 4
Prop 5
5
1
Prop 6
2
Prop 7
63
Prop 8
Prop 9 0
Prop 10
1
3
Prop 11
Prop 12
1
All equally
4
None of them
4
Don't know
4
Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008
14
The outcome of Prop 8 was more important to Yes voters than No
voters
As you may know, Proposition 8 passed. How important to you is the
outcome of the vote on Proposition 8?
Yes Voters
No Voters
74
Very Important
59
18
Somewhat Important
22
5
Not too important
10
3
Not at all important
Don't know
% Very Important
• Evangelical Christians: 77% (vs all others: 61%)
• Women: 69% (vs Men: 60%)
• Latinos: 67%
• Overall: 65%
• Whites: 64%
7
0
Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008
2
15
Vote by
Subgroups
Prop 8 by gender
% voting yes
Women
49
Men
54
0
50
17
Prop 8 by gender and family status
% voting yes
Women, parents
47
Women, not parents
50
Men, parents
60
Men, not parents
52
0
50
18
Prop 8 by age
% voting yes
Under 30
45
30s
41
40s
52
50-64
47
65+
65
0
50
19
Prop 8 by ethnicity
% voting Yes
White
50
Black
58
Hispanic/Latino
59
Asian
48
Other
39
0
50
20
Prop 8 by party
% voting yes
Democrats
30
Independents
52
Republicans
81
0
50
21
There is a direct correspondence between voters’ self-placement on
an ideological scale and the percent supporting Proposition 8
% voting yes
86
79
70
53
32
21
22
Very liberal
Somewhat
liberal
Moderate, lean
liberal
Moderate
Moderate, lean
Somewhat
conservative Conservative
Very
conservative
Prop 8 by religion
% voting yes
Catholic
55
Protestant
66
Jewish*
17
Other
49
No Religion
29
0
50
23
Prop 8 by frequency of worship
% voting yes
Once a week or more
70
Few times a month
49
Special
occasions/holiday
44
Hardly ever
30
0
50
24
Prop 8 by education level
% voting Yes
High school graduate
56
Some college or
associate degree
57
College graduate
50
Postgraduate study
40
0
50
Source: media exit poll
25
Prop 8 by presidential vote
% voting Yes
Barack Obama
30
John McCain
86
0
50
26
Prop 8 by knowledge of LGBT people
% voting Yes
Are LGBT
5
Know LGBT
48
Do not know LGBT
60
0
50
27
Timing &
Influences
Yes voters are driven by the belief that
marriage is between a man and a woman
What are the reasons why you voted YES on Proposition 8?
BASE: Those voting YES
40
Believe marriage is between a man and woman
29
Religious reasons
Don’t believe in same sex marriage
15
9
Family reasons, should not be taught in school
Moral issues
5
Thought it was the right way to vote
5
Homosexuals can live in union; do not call it marriage
5
Already voted on, already have equal rights
5
2
No conviction; does not affect me
Q8 N=549
29
No voters are driven by belief in equal rights and
freedom to choose whom to marry
What are the reasons why you voted NO on Proposition 8?
BASE: Those voting NO
Believe in: civil rights, equal rights, freedom to
choose whom to marry
40
Prop 8 discriminates, is unequal, wrong to deny
people their rights
26
Should not be on ballot, govt shouldn’t be allowed
to decide who marries whom / unconstitutional /
takes away rights
18
Not my right to tell someone who they can or
cannot marry
Know or is homosexual and/or wants chance to
marry partner
Q9 N=515
30
11
6
Majority of voters were most influenced by discussions with friends
and family and their personal opinion, while 8% were most influenced
by religion.
Which of the following was the most influential to you
when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?
Discussion with friends,
families and coworkers
29
Personal opinion
26
The information in the
ballot pamphlet
12
8
Religion/ Bible
Television
advertisements
Newspaper articles
Newspaper editorials
Q12 (N=1066)
6
3
2
31
Voters influenced by discussions more likely to vote no, voters
influenced by the religion more likely to vote yes
Which of the following was the most influential to you
when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?
% voting Yes
Discussion with friends,
families and coworkers
45
Personal opinion
53
The information in the
ballot pamphlet
43
Religion/ Bible
94
Television
advertisements
Newspaper articles
58
31
Newspaper editorials
Q12 (N=1066)
47
32
Communications
Ads, mail & discussions with friends and family had the greatest reach.
Phone calls and newspaper endorsements also had strong reach.
Received information this way
90
Television ads
Mail
86
Discussions with friends and family
85
36
Phone calls
27
Newspaper endorsements
24
Discussions with clergy, members
19
Ads in ethnic media
Church or synagogue
Q28-34 (N=1066)
10
Labor union
9
Ads on web sites
8
Official web sites
7
34
While about one-third of voters report receiving a
phone call about Prop 8, 95% say it wasn’t effective
95
64
Number of phone
calls received
12
No calls
1
Q63 (N=1066)
9
2
6
3
6
4 or 5
Influence of
phone calls
3
3
2
6 or
more
More likely to vote
yes
More likely to vote
no
No influence
Seeing gay couples being married on TV did not
significantly affect the vote on Proposition 8
55
Have you ever seen same sex couples get married on the
news or on television? (IF YES:) Did that make you more
likely to vote YES on 8, more likely to vote NO on 8, or did it
make no difference to you?
20
14
Did Not See
Q63 (N=1066)
Saw, but made no
difference
11
Saw, made more
Saw, made more
likely to vote YES on likely to vote NO on
8
8
About 69% saw a Yes on 8 ad, but only 18% found
them convincing
72
31
23
Number of yes on
8 ads seen
14
Did not
see/not
sure
1 to 4
Q63 (N=1066)
5 to 10
15
11 to 20
Convincingness
of TV ads
17
20 or
more
9
9
9
Very
convincing
somewhat
convincing
not too
convincing
not convincing
at all
The Yes on 8 ad most frequently recalled is about
the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.
Can you describe for me one television ad for yes on 8 that you remember
that was convincing?
Teaching same sex marriage in schools
Child with book about a king marrying a
king (prince marrying prince, etc.)
Traditional marriage (man marrying
woman)
Mayor talking about same sex marriage/
proposition 8
18
5
3
2
Children on field trip to gay wedding
2
Parents talking about homosexual son or
daughter
2
Commercial about kids (not specific)
1
Religious commercials about same sex
marriage
1
Discrimination commercial
1
Spanish commercial talking about same
sex marriage
1
None
Q27 (N=549)
52
38
No on 8 Ads Seen: Dianne seen by most
Percent recall seeing ad
Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no to
discrimination
67
History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with Japanese
Interment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose
discrimination
43
Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights for
their lesbian daughter as for their straight sons
38
Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by major
papers, unions, and corporations.
35
Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from getting
married with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person
you love?”
34
Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right to
marry the person she chooses
33
Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relative
who had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their
families grow stronger"
Q28-34 (N=1066)
39
24
No on 8 Ads Seen: Among viewers, Thoron ad is more convincing
Somewhat convincing
Very convincing
Dianne
17
History (SLJ)
23
Thoron
23
32
15
13
20
36
43
Endorsements
13
19
32
Garden wedding
14
17
31
Ellen
Families
Q28-34 (N=1066)
16
18
33
17
34
16
40
Voters who saw Dianne and Thoron are more likely to have voted no on
Prop 8.
% Yes on 8
Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no to
discrimination
46
History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with Japanese
Interment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose
discrimination
47
Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights for
their lesbian daughter as for their straight sons
Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by major
papers, unions, and corporations.
Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from getting
married with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person
you love?”
42
48
50
Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right to
marry the person she chooses
Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relative
who had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their
families grow stronger"
Q28-34 (N=1066)
41
*Significant at the
.001 level in logistic
regression analysis
52
46
Takeaways
Majority of voters believed that Prop 8 would preserve traditional
marriage
All Voters
Agree
58
Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage
Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to
children in elementary school
Q49-58 (N=1066)
43
17
29
19
37
32
37
Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA
Supreme Court
Disagree
5
49
Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church
Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches
Don't Know
29
36
19
46
41
45
Majority of voters agree that it is wrong to eliminate constitutional
right of equal protection and that Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and
wrong
All Voters
Agree
Don't Know
Disagree
Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to
eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'
52
Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong
51
5
44
Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination
against some groups & individuals
50
6
45
Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone
equally & fairly
46
Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters &
the CTA
45
Q49-58 (N=1066)
44
10
37
6
49
36
18
9% voted YES, but believe that Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, and wrong. Regression
analysis indicates they were motivated by the belief that Prop 8 will preserve
traditional marriage & stop the teaching of same sex marriage in school.
Yes voters who believe Prop 8 is
unfair, unnecessary, wrong
100
Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong
78
Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage *
Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to
children in elementary school *
Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to
eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'
Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination against
some groups & individuals
36
Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church
35
15
29
62
47
Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA
Supreme Court
Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone
equally & fairly
Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & the
CTA
30
Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches
26
39
51
25
34
33
*Significant at the .0005 level in logistic regression analysis
Q49-58 (N=95)
0
45
34
57
26
34
73% of yes voters say there is nothing that could change their mind.
7% want same sex marriage to be called something else.
Some people voted no on Proposition 8 because they believe it’s wrong to deny gay
people the ability to get married. Is there anything that could change your mind and
lead you to support the freedom to marry for everyone some day? What?)
If same sex marriage is called something
else
7
Probably would not change
3
If church says same sex marriage is okay
3
If same sex marriage is not taught in
schools
2
If no adverse affects on churches
1
If family rights to teach in home are not
changed
1
Miscellaneous
5
Don't Know
4
73
No / Nothing
Q64 N=549
46

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