Raffaelle_NewGreenEnergyEconomy

Report
The New Green Energy Economy
Dr. Ryne P. Raffaelle
Vice President for Research and Associate Provost
Rochester Institute of Technology &
Former Director of the National Center for Photovoltaics at the
National Renewable Energy Lab
The New Green Energy
Economy is all about how we
will meet the exponentially
growing need for energy in a
way that is sustainable.
The word sustainability is
derived from the Latin sustinere
(tenere, to hold; sus, up).
Dictionaries provide more than
ten meanings for sustain, the
main ones being to “maintain",
"support", or "endure.”
“Sustainable Development is development that
meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs.”
Brundtland Commission of the United
Nations on March 20, 1987.
For development to be
truly sustainable,
requires that it be
socially acceptable,
environmentally friendly,
and economically
viable.
More often than not, energy is the “long-pole” when it
comes to sustainable development.
“Access to environmentally
and socially sustainable
energy is essential to reduce
poverty. Globally, over 1.4
billion people are still without
access to electricity. About 3
billion use solid fuels —
wood, charcoal, coal, and
dung for cooking and
heating.” – World Bank, 2011
For every 1 American there are 3.9 people in India
and 4.3 people in China who currently use a small
fraction of the energy we do.
1931
“We are like tenant farmers
chopping down the fence around
our house for fuel when we should
be using Nature's inexhaustible
sources of energy — sun, wind
and tide. ... I'd put my money on
the sun and solar energy. What a
source of power! I hope we don't
have to wait until oil and coal run
out before we tackle that.”
Thomas Edison, in conversation with Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone as quoted in Uncommon
Friends : Life with Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, Harvey Firestone, Alexis Carrel & Charles
Lindbergh (1987) by James Newton, p. 31
Fastest growing
sector in the
energy market is
renewables, but
we have a very
long way to go!
~16% of global final energy
consumption comes from
renewables - 10% traditional
biomass, 3.4% hydroelectricity,
2.8% new renewables (small
hydro, modern biomass, wind,
solar, geothermal, and
biofuels).
REN 21, Renewable Energy Policy
Network for the 21st Century
Renewable energy is energy which comes from
natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain,
tides, and geothermal heat, which are
renewable (naturally replenished).
Roughly 4.6 billion years ago . . .
“Let there be light”
What a source of
power indeed…
The amount of
sunlight that hits the
Earth's surface in one
hour is enough to
power the entire world
for a year!
1839
Edmund Becquerel discovers the
photovoltaic effect.
1860 - 1881
Auguste Mouchout was the first man to
patent a design for a motor running on
solar energy.
1872
John Ericsson's
developed his “Sun
Motor.”
1940
Russell Ohl discovers the
“p-n junction”
1941
Russell Ohl receives a US
Patent 2402662, "Light
sensitive device"
1954
AT&T Bell Labs unveils it new
“solar battery” developed by
Gerald Pearson, Daryl
Chapin, and Calvin Fuller
which was the first modern
silicon solar cell.
1950’s
The U.S. has the best solar energy resource
of any major industrialized nation on the Earth.
Average insolation kWh/m2/day
10%
20%
30%
3.6 TW US Consumption
40%
PV Costs and Production
• PV prices have been in free-fall over past couple of years.
• Large differences in utility scale versus commercial rooftop and residential.
Reasons:
• Efficiency Increases
• Economies of Scale
• Increased Competition
23,889 MW
Worldwide PV
production
grew by >
100% in 2010!
~ 80% of PV production is in Asia
~ 80% of deployment is in Europe
Industry Trends
1,400
1,250
1,228
2008-2010 Production (MW)
1,200
1,100
950
1,000
900
805
750
800
704
MW
700
600
595
550
600
520
500
490
400
397
290
250
190
237
399
360
400
260
215
525
473
450
400
586
582
200
300
272
210
200
103
-
2008 Production
2009 Production
2010E Production
282
504
498
Current U.S. Solar Energy Production
Solar Advisor Model with real inputs (i.e., South
facing, 25 degree fixed tilt,4.3 kW DC system size,
Local, state, and federal incentives as of October
2010, and the PV system financed as part of a 30
year home loan)
25 Year 80% BOL warrantees are the
industry standard.
<1% degradation/year
Arrays installed after 2000 have been
much more reliable, especially in the
case of thin films.
Building Integrated Photovoltaics
85kW Shell Solar
CIGS in Wales
In
Southern
California
216 Würth CIGS modules
in Tübingen, Germany
Concentrating Photovoltaics
Inverted Metamorphic III-V Solar Cell
> 40% Efficient
Maricopa Solar | Maricopa County,
Arizona (Near Phoenix) | Salt River
Project (SRP)
1.5MW | Total of 60 SunCatcher™
Power Systems.
Operating since January 2010.
Roll-to-roll Thin Films
•
•
Markup on all materials (module, inverter, BoS) included in ‘Installer Overhead & Profit’
Residential $0.89/WDC, Commercial $0.55, Utility (fixed) $0.31
Reflects inventory costs (interest during construction), contingency
Energy Storage can be achieved in a wide
variety of ways including: compressed air,
batteries, hydrogen, and flywheels.
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Pumped hydro energy storage
The rechargeable
battery market has
grown 6 fold over
the past 20 years.
Li ion batteries
have been the
fastest growing
part of that sector.
All Electric Vehicles from China
The Hydrogen Economy
“We do not inherit the
earth, we borrow it from
our children”
Thank You
Happy 50th Dr. Raffaelle

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