Report

Get out your ISN! Today’s Objectives: You will be able to understand the basic ideas of probability including outcomes, events, and sample spaces. Warm Up Tape this into your Warm Up Section and use the deck to answer. WWK & TOC Choose a colored pencil and ruler—draw a horizontal line underneath… • the last TOC entry (27-28) • the last WWK entry (Deviation Standard ) TOC 29-30 Intro to Probability WWK Probability—the chance of an event occurring; () Probability Experiment—A chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes. If you number your WWK… Outcome—The result of a single trial in a probability start numbering at 1 again! experiment Sample Space—The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment; symbol: more WWK Event—consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment; symbol: Complement—the set of all outcomes in a sample space that are NOT included in the event; symbol: ′ Classical Probability—Uses sample spaces to determine the probability that an event will happen Empirical Probability—based on the observations obtained from an experiment. Subjective Probability—Uses a probability value based on an educated guess—approximate information Big Picture Unit 3 We are now moving to Unit 3 which is Probability. The definition of Probability is the chance that something will happen—how likely it is that some event will happen. Probability Recall that randomness—randomly assigning subjects to treatments in experiments, or randomness in sampling in observational studies—is a key component of statistics. Probability gives us a way to measure randomness. First Foldable Intro to Probability 11/10 Tape Here Tape Here Tape Here 30 Right Side Input Tape Here Tape Here Fold it shut Tape Here nd 2 Fold the Foldable in half before taping Tape Here Tape Here Tape Here Intro to Probability 30 11/10 Right Side Input Foldable pg. 1 Other Experiments: • • • Drawing from a deck of cards Flipping a coin Drawing a marble from a bag of marbles Foldable pg. 1 Other Outcomes: • • Drawing from a deck of cards {2 of hearts} Flipping a coin {T} heads heads tails tails heads tails FOUR Possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, TT Foldable pg. 2 Foldable pg. 2 Foldable pg. 2 = {, } = {, , , } More Examples: • Three coins are flipped. ={ } Foldable pg. 3 Other Events: • • Flipping 2 coins and getting 1 tail and 1 head = { ? } Rolling a die and getting a 1 or a 5 ={ ? } Foldable pg. 3 = {} heads heads tails tails heads = {, , , , , , , } tails heads tails heads tails heads tails heads tails = {, , } Foldable pg. 3 Foldable pg. 4 Foldable pg. 4 = , , , → = { } → = = =. = =. = , → = {, , , , , } → = =. = , , → = {, , , , , } → You Try! Foldable pg. 5 = , , , → = = {, , , , , } → − ′ = = Foldable pg. 5 You Try! You Try! You Try! Foldable pg. 6 Foldable pg. 6 Subjective Empirical Classical Foldable pg. 7 You Try! Foldable pg. 7 You Try! You Try! Tape Here 11/10 Intro to Probability Tape Here 29 Left Side Input I typed #6 and #7 wrong, 6. “Is #4 a simple of compound event?” 7. “Is #5 a simple of compound event?” Homework LEFT side