Here - Skeptical Science

Report
Climate Science
Crash Course
Dana Nuccitelli
[email protected]
@dana1981
Who Am I?
 B.A. in Astrophysics from UC Berkeley, 2003
 M.S. in Physics from UC Davis, 2005
 Environmental Scientist and Risk Assessor working at
McClellan Business Park since 2006
 Climate blogger at SkepticalScience.com (since 2010) and
The Guardian (since April 2013)
 Author of four peer-reviewed climate science papers
 Citizens Climate Lobby Sacramento Chapter member
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The Guardian
Climate Consensus – the 97%
The Big Question:
How do we know
humans are causing
global warming?
The Earth’s climate changed
naturally in the past…
…and people died naturally in
the past
CSI: Climate Change
Fingerprints of human-caused
global warming
The increased greenhouse effect
Global energy imbalance
seen by satellites
Incoming energy from the sun
has been stable for 50 years
Increased greenhouse effect has
trapped heat = less outgoing energy
Climate research concludes about
100% of global warming over the
past 50 years is human-caused
Scientists are as confident in human-caused
global warming as they are that smoking kills
97% Expert Consensus on
Human-Caused Global
Warming
The Consensus Among 80
National Academies of Science
The Consensus Gap
97% Consensus is Big News
Is the planet still warming?
Yes, and fast!
 Most popular current myth is that global warming
has ‘paused’ over the past 15 years.
 This myth is wrong for two simple reasons. First, it
ignores that heat continues to build up on Earth,
mostly in the oceans.
90% of Global Warming
Heats the Oceans
Global Warming Continues
Going Down The Up Escalator
Where is the Climate Headed?
The Reason for Urgency
Start of
Human
Civilization
Ancient
Egypt
Ancient Roman
Greece Empire
You
Are
Here
Northern California Wildfire Increase
in High Emissions Scenario.
Area burned in 2085 compared to 1975
Current drought caused by
“Ridiculously Resilient Ridge.”
Climate change connection?
2004 UC Santa Cruz paper
predicted a climate connection
High pressure zone
predicted in 2005
High pressure zone
measured in 2013
Polar Vortex caused by
meandering Jet Stream*
Over 70% Arctic sea ice
volume loss in 3 decades
Climate change
contributors to CA drought
 Loss of snowpack – nature’s water storage for California.
Warmer temperatures lead to:
 Precipitation falling as rain, not snow
 More precipitation falls in downpours, less absorbed in soil
 Faster snow melt
 More evaporation from reservoirs, drier soil
 Changing precipitation patterns
 Wet areas tend to get wetter, dry tend to get drier
 High pressure ridges off the coast pushing our rain to the north
The Effects of 1 meter Sea Level
Rise (very possible by 2100)
Climate change is about
risk management
The Carbon Credit Card
Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax
Advocated by Citizens Climate Lobby
 We need to put a price on carbon emissions so
consumers can make informed decisions.
 California cap and trade system is a good start, but
we need action on a national and international level.
 Legislation needs bipartisan support.
 Many conservatives are beginning to support a
revenue-neutral carbon tax.
 More details from Jerry Hinkle, Northern California
Regional Coordinator for Citizens Climate Lobby.

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