Plan for Today: Economic Reform & Globalization, Diffusion, and the Snowball Effect Conclude debate on shock therapy vs. gradual economic reform during democratization. Learn how indirect international factors may encourage democratization. 1. Demonstration Effects. 2. International norms/ conventions. Debate over best reform strategy Option 1 Option 2 Speed Rapid Gradual Degree Radical Moderate Historical Evidence Argue those who conducted radical reforms have more successful economies. Poland (radical) vs. Romania (gradual). Gradual, Moderate Reform Defenders include: Przeworski, Stiglitz. Arguments for Gradual Reform 1. We still know very little about how free markets interact with democracy. Arguments for Gradual Reform 2. Adverse social and political consequences of neoliberal reforms. Arguments for Gradual Reform 3. The state must play a role in facilitating market economy. Enforcement of contracts. Providing collective goods. Equitable distribution of wealth. Historical Evidence “Alternative capitalisms” have succeeded quite well: East Asia European social democracies Some neoliberal failures: Argentina Mexico Russia State of Debate Debate still continues on appropriate approach to economic reform. Certainly proponents of most radical free-market reforms have lost ground in debate in recent years. Indirect International Forces: Globalization, Diffusion, and the Snowball Effect Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing” Democratization in one country can perhaps lead to democratization in other countries. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing” Characteristics 1. More important in the third wave, due to expanded communications and transportation. • • Travel and cultural exchange. Communications technology to link with outside world. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing” Characteristics 2. Tend to be clustered in particular regions. • Portugal Spain Latin America. • Philippines South Korea. • Eastern Europe 1989. • Post-Communist “Colour Revolutions”. • Current North Africa/ Middle East protest movements. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing” Characteristics 3. Can jump from region to region, but weaker. • Eastern Europe Zaire & Nepal (incomplete transitions). Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing” Characteristics 4. Speed up and grow in importance during wave of democratic transitions. • Pro-democracy movements elsewhere begin to think democratization is natural outcome. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing” How important is it overall? Not as important as domestic factors. However, some cases of snowballing where no prior domestic support. E.g. Albania. But resulting democracy not stable. International Norms and Conventions Governments sign international conventions that demand democratic behaviour, with no intention of complying. Domestic opposition forces then demand compliance with international standards. E.g. USSR & Helsinki Accords (1975). International Norms and Conventions “Democracy” as universal international norm. China, Iran, North Korea, Zimbabwe call themselves democracies – potential fuel for domestic mobilization. Now anti-democracy coalition developing to change norm? International Norms and Conventions Desire to join international organizations incentive for democratic consolidation. E.g. European Union candidates.