Preliminary Post THORPEX Followup Plan

Report
US post-THORPEX Legacy Program*
DRAFT Version 2 (pre-USTEC meeting)
S. J. Majumdar, E. K. M. Chang, M. Pena
July 14, 2014
* Program name TBD
Summary of June 5-6 Planning Meeting
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Summary of THORPEX, successes, challenges
Introduction to WMO/WWRP Legacy Projects
Service, Agency, Participant priorities
Participants identified critical gaps in progress, common
scientific challenges and research priorities in the
context of the new Legacy projects
• Next step: to develop a coordinated community
program plan for US research
• These slides offer an initial structure to begin planning
the new US program, and the community is invited to
contribute to the plan.
Program Name (TBD)
Consider minutes-to-seasonal prediction, high-impact
weather, spanning predictability through to forecasting
and socio-economic impacts. Name needs to be short.
Mission
“To promote national and international
cooperative research to understand, evaluate,
and improve the skill and socio-economic value
of forecasts of high-impact weather events, on
time scales of minutes to seasonal.”
Goals
• Determine and address US needs over next decade
– Socio-economic and environmental needs
– Agency interests
– US community research priorities and talent
• Determine scientific opportunities highlighted in the
3 international legacy projects that map on to
interests of US community and agencies, including
science that cuts across the legacy projects
• Prepare a coordinated effort to collaborate and
communicate results with performance metrics
• Devise a cohesive yet far-reaching, fiscally responsible
plan driven by short-term and long-term benefits
WMO/WWRP International Legacy Projects
Minutes
2 weeks
Seasonal
WMO/WWRP International Legacy Projects
• Polar Prediction Project (PPP)
http://polarprediction.net/
• Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/S2S_project_main_page.html
• High-Impact Weather (HIWeather)
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/HIW_Silver_Spring_2014.html
• All three legacy projects focus on aspects of
prediction of high-impact weather
One atmosphere, all spatial / temporal scales connected
Subjects of Legacy projects overlap
Examples of connections between Legacy projects
• S2S prediction of polar weather
• Polar effects (e.g. from ice) on S2S predictions at
all latitudes
• S2S prediction of flooding events and other
HIWeather hazards
• Effects of HIWeather events (e.g. repeated
flooding) on S2S predictions
• HIWeather hazards, risk and communication
issues in polar regions
• Polar effects on HIWeather events
US Plan in context of International Legacy Projects
• US research plan can integrate elements from all 3
international projects
– Focus on subset of research issues specified in the 3 international
documents for which US community can speak for
• Community experts in each area to define research priorities
• Develop linkages in parallel as these priorities are identified
– Prediction priorities lie geographically both within and outside the US,
can be global problems, mapped onto interests of US agencies
– Identify tasks that a large group of scientists all deem important, that a
coordinated effort can achieve that improves upon small groups of PI’s
• Scientific collaborations
• Data management and archival of observational and model/ensemble data
• Create mechanisms to integrate collaborations with
international partners on legacy projects
– Articulate US benefits but think more broadly
– How will the US contribute to international efforts, and how will
international collaborations and activities benefit the US goals?
Hazards: WMO / WWRP HIWeather Foci
5 hazards have been proposed as anchors for
collaborative international research activities:
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•
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•
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Urban Flooding
Wildfires
Localized Extreme Wind
Disruptive Winter Weather
Urban Heat and Air Quality
Hazards: Proposed US Foci
• Priorities identified at US Planning Meeting
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–
–
–
Water (all flooding, surge, ice etc.) (PPP, S2S, HIWeather)
Heat waves (S2S, HIWeather)
Winter weather (PPP, S2S, HIWeather)
Extreme Wind (PPP, S2S, HIWeather)
• Activities seamlessly span space and time scales
– Minutes to seasonal
– Micro-scale to planetary scale
• Develop planning process around these priorities
• Additional areas matching agency interests may be
identified
Research Thrusts
• The primary goals that were identified fall into 4
broad and overlapping research thrusts:
– Predictability and Processes
• Process-oriented, multi-scale predictability studies
– Modeling and Assimilation
• Coupled high-resolution modeling and assimilation for NWP
foundation; ensemble science and prediction
– Use and Evaluation of Forecasts
• New forecast products, methods to evaluate forecasts and
assessments of value to users
– Risk, Impact and Communication
• Communication to and from users and decision makers
Cross-Cutting Activities
• The following activities cut across the
aforementioned research thrust areas:
– Creative use of Observations
• New observing networks
• Better utilization of existing observations
– Uncertainty
• Assessments of uncertainty in predictions and communications
– Testbeds and Virtual Field Campaigns
• Where the rubber meets the road
• Operational models as community models
– Data Management
• Dedicated data management and support desk essential
Next slide
• In each box: summary of activities suggested
at June 2014 Planning Meeting, arranged by
research thrust and cross-cutting activity
• Activities are common across all of PPP, S2S
and HIWeather (and interfaces between)
• Several activities belong to more than one box
• Slides at end (background): selected activities
specific to each of PPP, S2S and HIWeather.
Risk, Impact and
Communication
Ocean, PBL, surface,
microphysics. Lowertropospheric & satellite
obs. Coupled, multiscale, non-linear DA.
Model error and bias.
Novel verification of
coupled global, cloudpermitting NWP using
obs. Linkages between
research and operations.
Common requirements.
Better observations of
hazards: flooding, wind.
Identify decision makers’
needs for observations
and nowcasting.
Assess health risks.
Which advances will
yield better ensembles?
Predictability manifested
in risk assessments?
Model sensitivity and
stochastic variability.
Ensemble development
and calibration.
User-focused metrics to
evaluate value contained
in ensemble forecasts.
Multi-model ensembles.
New products and
metrics for hazards.
Coordinated assessment
of ensemble reliability.
User-based relative
value on different scales.
How do Spatio-temporal
scales of met forecasts
intersect with those of
human response?
“Social DA”. Examining
communication to users.
Predictability and
process studies in virtual
global and regional field
experiments, real-time
and retrospective.
Precipitating regimes.
Testbed for coordinated
developmental testing.
Operational models/DA
for community use.
ESPC, NUOPC, NMME.
NOAA Testbeds. OSSE.
Provide large set of case
studies for HIW and S2S,
including Arctic (PPP).
Event-based verification.
Evaluate if impacts are
being reduced.
Test information needed
to personalize risk.
Examine propagation of
forecast/warning/risk.
Predict user impact for
different forecasts.WRN
Special archives for high
impact cases:
Observations.
Reanalysis and
reforecast data.
Ensemble data.
Model data at its highest
resolution.
Model scripts, code and
executables.
Data assimilation
scripts, code and
TIGGE protocol.
Verification toolbox.
GIS database.
Easy access to product
visualization.
Creative use of
observations
Large-scale linkages to
high-impact events.
Influence of and on
convective processes.
Regime dependence.
Limits of predictability.
Uncertainty
Use and Evaluation
of Forecasts
Testbeds and
Virtual Field
Modeling and
Assimilation
Data
management
ALL
Predictability and
Processes
Operational linkages: R2O and O2R
• Where the rubber meets the road
• Two-way interface
– Successful research activities and products that
demonstrate a quantitative benefit for operations
are considered for operational use
– Researchers are provided with infrastructure,
access and sufficient support to use operational
models and products
• Many activities listed on the previous slides
are considered in the context of R2O and O2R
Next Steps: Key Science Questions
• Following the establishment of priorities that
were proposed at the Planning Meeting, the
next step will be for the US community to
develop a coherent series of nationally
focused science questions that span across
the legacy projects.
• These will be developed through the next
year.
Next Steps: Key Practical Questions
• How to establish metrics for success?
– NOAA’s HFIP has clearly established metrics and targets, offers
their community a focus
• How to coordinate existing and new projects?
– Currently, a large number of individual relevant projects and
products
• How to dedicate resources: infrastructure and personnel
support?
– Support for operational models currently poor
• How to foster direct science-SERA collaborations?
• How to handle cross-cutting projects across agencies?
• How to link (and lead?) international collaborations?
Connection to Agency Programs and Priorities
•
NSF
– Priority: US community to organize to provide priorities and a cutting-edge science plan
– Programs: HAZARDS SEES / PREEVENT
– Potential to support virtual field campaigns
•
NOAA
– Priority: research that can benefit operations
– R2O and O2R (including Research to Operations project)
– Programs:
•
•
Weather Ready Nation – Ambassador program
HIWPP (High-Impact Weather Prediction Project
– Testbeds and Proving Grounds
•
NASA
– Priority: Creative use of satellite and earth venture data for assimilation and verification, e.g.
from GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) satellite, Global Hawk unmanned aircraft
– Programs: MAP (Modeling, Analysis and Prediction)
•
ONR
– Priority: prediction capability for Naval interests
– Relevant Directed Research Initiatives (DRIs): Arctic, Coupled Modeling, Tropical Cyclone
Intensity
•
Multi-agency
– Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC)
– National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
•
Other agencies?
Timeline for developing US plan
• July 3 2014 – draft sent to USTSSC, workshop participants
• July 15 2014 – USTEC Meeting
• August 18 2014 – revised draft presented at WWOSC
Town Hall. Community feedback sought
• Second half of 2014 –organizational arrangements
– Interagency management / executive committee composed
of people who have authority to oversee funding lines
– Science committee composed of “go-to” experts in each area
• Second half of 2014 – Experts in US community
(research, agencies, users) define priorities
• Second half of 2014 – draft science plan
• First half of 2015 – follow-on meetings
• Mid-2015 – finalize science plan
Background slides
Modeling and
Assimilation
Use and Evaluation
of Forecasts
(i) Large-scale linkages
between polar regions
and lower latitudes.
(ii) Alaskan cyclones in
changing climate.
(iii) Sea-ice the driver.
Improve surface fluxes,
boundary layer.
New satellite obs: cloud
and moisture. Targeting.
Sea ice thickness.
Coupled, mesoscale DA.
Development and
verification of coupled
air-sea-wave-ice models.
GOES-R products.
GOES-R products.
Model sensitivity.
Ensemble development
and calibration.
Ensemble reforecasts.
Coordinated assessment
of ensemble reliability.
Extension of skill.
User-focused metrics to
evaluate improvement in
value of forecasts.
Assessing and improving
communication to users
and decision makers.
Model testbeds and
reanalyses for (i)-(iii).
Systematic analysis of
predictability and
predictive skill in Arctic.
Coupled Air-Sea-Ice
development.
Influence direction and
engage in YOPP.
ESPC, MOSAiC, virtual
campaigns.
List of forecast cases.
Event-based verification.
Seamless prediction.
Sea ice prediction.
NOAA Arctic Testbed.
NMME, ESPC, MOSAiC.
Autumn storms.
Marine weather, ice.
Wave/surge impacts.
Special archives for high
impact cases:
Observations.
Reanalysis and
reforecast data.
Ensemble data.
Model data at its highest
resolution.
Model scripts, code and
executables.
Data assimilation
scripts, code and
TIGGE protocol.
Verification toolbox.
GIS database.
Easy access to product
visualization.
Data
management
Testbeds and
Virtual Field
Uncertainty
Creative use of
observations
PPP
Predictability and
Processes
Risk, Impact and
Communication
Use and Evaluation
of Forecasts
Risk, Impact and
Communication
Determine modeling
priorities > week 2.
Coupled DA.
Soil moisture, snow
cover, ocean.
Assess model errors.
Ocean-atmosphere
coupling. Hydrological.
Metrics and datasets to
verify forecasts.
Identify needs and
applications.
Which regimes are more
(vs less) predictable?
What are the limits?
Stochastic forcing and
variability of processes.
Ensemble generation
methods.
Define prediction
products such as
heatwaves, info from
probabilistic forecasts.
Exploit operational
forecasts (NMME).
Multi-models.
Intraseasonal tropical
variability knowledge
transfer into operations.
Quantify + communicate
uncertainty (and nature)
beyond medium-range.
Behavioral response.
Assess questions above
over concentrated
period of interest, e.g.
anomalously high
precipitation regime
with HIWeather cases.
Framework to facilitate
international
collaborations, via S2S
database, coordinated
experiments etc.
NOAA Testbeds.
Next phase of YOTC:
virtual global field
experiments.
Effort to link to ESPC,
NUOPC, CLIVAR.
Design impact-relevant
measures to
complement present
physical-dynamical
metrics.
Special archives for high
impact cases:
Observations.
Reanalysis and
reforecast data.
Ensemble data.
Model data at its highest
resolution.
Model scripts, code and
executables.
Data assimilation
scripts, code and
TIGGE protocol.
Verification toolbox.
GIS database.
Easy access to product
visualization.
Uncertainty
Creative use of
observations
Teleconnections.
Monsoons. Blocking.
Scale interactions:
energy transport,
mesoscale processes,
convection.
Testbeds and
Virtual Field
Modeling and
Assimilation
Data
management
S2S
Predictability and
Processes
Data
management
Testbeds and
Virtual Field
Uncertainty
Creative use of
observations
HIWe
ather
Predictability and
Processes
Modeling and
Assimilation
Use and Evaluation
of Forecasts
Risk, Impact and
Communication
Process-based
assessment of forecast
degradation pre and
post landfall.
Boundary layer and land
surface development.
Lower-mid tropospheric
observations needed.
Nonlinearity in rapid
convective-scale DA.
Advanced nowcasting.
Couple with hydrology,
chemistry etc.
Systematic observing
network design.
Adaptive observations.
Better observations of
hazards: flooding, wind.
Which advances in
process understanding
will lead to most
improved ensemble
predictions?
Coupled meteorologicalhazard ensembles.
Real-time impact of
observations and their
uncertainty on forecast
skill.
New products and
metrics for hazards.
Quantify value of less
specific ‘medium range’
predictions versus more
detailed ‘short range’.
How do Spatio-temporal
scales of met forecasts
intersect with those of
human response?
“Social DA” problem.
Predictability and
process studies in virtual
field campaigns, realtime and retrospective.
NOAA Testbeds.
OSSE Testbed.
Provide large set of case
studies for HIW and S2S,
including Arctic (PPP).
Evaluate if impacts are
being reduced.
Test scale of information
needed for people to
personalize risk.
Flood risk officials join
WRN ambassador
program.
Special archives for high
impact cases:
Observations.
Reanalysis and
reforecast data.
Ensemble data.
Model data at its highest
resolution.
Model scripts, code and
executables.
Data assimilation
scripts, code and
TIGGE protocol.
Verification toolbox.
GIS database.
Easy access to product
visualization.

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