Global perspectives - United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

Report
THE COMPREHENSIVE TEN-YEAR
REVIEW OF THE ALMATY
PROGRAMME OF ACTION
Global perspectives
Sandagdorj Erdenebileg
UN-OHRLLS
Tel: 212 963 7703,
email: [email protected]
UN-OHRLLS
Almaty Programme of Action - 2003
APoA – comprehensive development agenda focused
on transit cooperation.
• Key objectives - Increase export competitiveness
through reducing trade transaction costs
• Develop genuine partnerships at national, bilateral,
sub-regional, regional and global levels -between
LLDCs and transit countries with their development
partners and between the private and public sectors
• Priority areas:
i) Fundamental transit policy issues
ii) Infrastructure development and maintenance
iii) International trade and trade facilitation
iv) International support measures
v) Implementation and review
UN-OHRLLS
LLDCs continue to face problems
Transit and transport related problems:
– Inadequate transit infrastructure
– Remoteness from major international markets
– Inefficient logistics systems
– Delays in transit – due to checkpoints/unscheduled
roadblocks, cumbersome customs and border crossing
procedures and insufficient application of ICT, excessive
number of documentation
Other challenges:
– Heavy reliance on low-value – high-bulk commodities
which make them vulnerable to commodity price volatility
– Limited productive capacities
– High vulnerability to the global financial and economic
crisis, food security, climate change and desertification
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and land degradation
Cost of being landlocked: Results of
OHRLLS study
• Study applied a gravity model to data from 150
including LLDCs and coastal countries over the
period 1980-2010.
• LLDCs’ trade was just 61% of the trade volume of
coastal countries in 2010. In 2004 it was 57%.
• Transport costs for LLDCs were 45% higher than
the representative coastal economy in 2010 and
have increased over time.
• Because of landlockedness the level of
development in the LLDCs is on average 20%
lower than what it would be were the countries
non-landlocked.
======
Improved Transport and Trade Facilitation are still
key to reducing the costs for LLDCs.
UN-OHRLLS
Since 2003 LLDCs experienced high
economic growth
GDP growth (percentage)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-2
World
LLDC average
-4
UN-OHRLLS
LLDC per capita GDP increased – Less than
transit countries; 14 African LLDCs below $
1,000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
LLDC Average
African LLDCs
Transit Countries Average
UN-OHRLLS
Declining value addition in manufacture
and agriculture LLDCs economies
Manufacturing Value Addition (Share of GDP)
20
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
LLDC
LDCs
TRANSIT COUNTRIES
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0
1990
Percentage of GDP
18
Human Development Index (HDI) has
improved but lower than other groups
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African LLDCs have lower HDI
0.70
0.60
0.50
2000
0.40
2005
2010
0.30
2012
0.20
0.10
0.00
All LLDC
African LLDCs
MDGS
Advances on some MDG indicators
• Net primary school enrolment increased from
64% in 2000 to 83% in 2011
• Share of women in national parliament increased
from 7.8% in 2000 to 23.5% in 2013
• HIV prevalence rate decreased from 4% in 2001
to 2.8% in 2011
• Under-5 mortality rate declined from 121.5 per
1,000 live births in 2000 to 80.9 in 2011
However challenges remain
• Prevalence of undernourishment in all LLDCs was
22% in 2011 and African LLDCs 31%
• In half of the LLDCs the proportion of the
population living under $1.25 per person per day
is greater than 20%
• GDP per capita (constant 2005 $) is below $1,000
in 19 LLDCs, 13 of which in Africa
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Poverty headcount ratio at 1.25 dollars per day
(% of total pop) has decreased but still high
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Selected key achievements
Priority area 1: Fundamental transit
policy issues
 Increased harmonization of policies
 Streamlining of border procedures
 Institutional frameworks have been set up
 Facilitation measures include:
• one-stop border posts;
• TIR System,
• introduction of single window processing;
• harmonization of axle load limits;
• third party motor insurance schemes
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Increased harmonisation of transport and transit
policies, procedures and practices with transit countries
• 57 international conventions on transit, 7 are particularly
important for LLDCs
Convention
No. LLDCs that ratified/
acceded (Jan 2013)
Road Traffic (1968)
13
Road Signs and Signals (1968)
8
TIR Convention (1975)
11
Temporary Importation of Commercial Road Vehicles (1956)
5
Customs Convention on Containers (1972)
6
Harmonization of Frontier Controls of Goods (1982)
11
Contract for International Carriage of Goods by Road (1956)
10
• Asian Highway Agreement entered into force in July 2005
• Trans-Asian Railway Agreement entered into force in June
2009
• Asian dry ports agreement ready for signature
• Trans-African Highway Agreement being negotiated
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Priority Area 2. Infrastructure
development and maintenance
• Progress has been made on the development of the
Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway networks.
• Africa - implementing the PIDA; with support from
partners (World Bank, EU, AfDB, JICA, South-South
Corp etc.) transit corridors have been developed.
• South America – implementing the Strategic Action
Plan for 2012-2022 of the South American
Infrastructure and Planning Council.
• The rate of cellular subscription and Internet users
significantly increased in all LLDCs
• Transport of cargo by airfreight has increased in
some LLDCs.
• Dry ports are being established in all regions eg.
Nepal, Burkina Faso, Mongolia and Ethiopia.
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• LLDCs have lowest percentage of paved
roads - only 9 have greater than 50%.
Percentage of paved
roads
Financing for infrastructure development
• $24.4 billion needed in Africa to finance road
and railway transport infrastructure projects
that can be implemented under Programme for
Infrastructure Development in Africa in 20122020
• $290 billion needed annually in Asia for
transport infrastructure between 2010 and 2020
• International financial institutions play important
role in financing infrastructure development:
• ODA has played a major role in infrastructure
development: $2 billion in ODA disbursements to
LLDCs went to transport and storage sector in 2011
• Enhance the role of PPP/private sector.
• Need innovative sources of funding.
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Priority Area 3. International trade and
trade facilitation
250000
Merchandise Exports (millions $)
200000
150000
100000
50000
LLDCs
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
20
00
0
African LLDCs
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• LLDCs’ share of the world’s trade
doubled from 0.6% in 2003 to 1.17% in
2012
• However LLDCs are still marginalized
from the international trade markets.
LLDCs are still heavily dependent on commodities
African LLDCs: Minerals (diamonds, gold, copper,
uranium) and agriculture (cotton, coffee, tobacco, bovine)
Export concentration of LLDCs has been increasing
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Developing economies
2005
2006
2007
2008
Developed economies
2009
2010
LLDCs
2011
LLDCs have made progress in facilitating
transport and trade across borders BUT
still take double the time it takes transit
countries to import/export
Import
2006
2013
Percentage
change
Number of documents
11
10
- 10%
Number of days
57
48
- 15%
$2,688
$3,643
+ 36%
Number of documents
9
8
- 11%
Number of days
48
42
- 12%
$2,207
$3,040
+ 38%
Cost per container
Export
Cost per container
• Transit countries: number of days to export in 2013 = 23
number of days to import in 2013 = 27
cost to export in 2013 = $1,268
cost to import in 2013 = $1,567
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Trade Facilitation under the DOHA Round
• Trade Facilitation in the Doha Development Round
has the potential to address many of the
fundamental transit policy issues that affect LLDC
exports.
• Negotiations aim to clarify and improve relevant
aspects of Articles V, VIII and X of the GATT 1994
with a view to further expediting the movement,
release and clearance of goods, including goods in
transit.
• A WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement could bring
down the global cost of moving trade today from
roughly 10 per cent of trade value to 5 per cent.
• OECD estimates that the Agreement would bring
down trade costs in LLDCs by 16.4%.
• Hope that the 9th WTO Ministerial in Bali in
December will deliver.
UN-OHRLLS
WTO Accession
• Since 2003 three LLDCs were able to
successfully complete their accession to
the WTO – Nepal, Lao PDR and Tajikistan.
• Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Ethiopia are
in advanced stages of the accession
process.
• Azerbaijan, Bhutan and Uzbekistan are at
various less advanced stages of the
accession process.
• Support to acceding countries is needed.
UN-OHRLLS
Way forward - Challenges and new
developments
• Reduce high trade transaction costs
• Enhance productive capacities, value addition,
diversification and reduction of dependency on
commodities
• Inadequate infrastructure
• Strengthen legal framework, conventions, GATT trade
facilitation agreement, regional and bilateral
• Regional integration/ corridor management
• Increased financial resources, ODA, FDI, remittances
• Impact of global trends: slow down of economic
development triple crisis, climate change,
desertification.
• Mainstream into global post 2015 development
agenda, SDGs
• Strengthen role and contributions of international
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regional organizations.
• Global awareness and recognition
increasing…
• Global partnerships are
strengthening…
Recognition of and interest in the
special needs of LLDCs and transit
issues for international trade has
increased since Almaty Conference
in 2003.
Greater recognition of LLDC issues from partner
countries and international organizations
… Thank You
UN-OHRLLS

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